- 1 Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics: a rested home team against the second night of a road back-to-back
- 2 Toronto Raptors: 5-4 with a bench that keeps covering the gaps
- 3 Boston Celtics: Tatum and George carrying a 7-2 start, with a heavy week ahead
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics: a rested home team against the second night of a road back-to-back 
Alijah Martin came off the bench in Milwaukee on Friday and scored 27 points, a career high, on 9-of-11 shooting with six threes. Toronto had trailed by as many as 15, it was playing without Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and Kawhi Leonard, and it still won 121-107. That result is the best place to start with this game, because it shows how deep the Raptors can go before the injury list starts to decide their nights.
Boston arrives at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday 11 November, tip-off at 7:00pm ET, as the better team on paper. The Celtics are 7-2, third in the East, and they’ve won seven of their last eight. Their latest was a 119-80 demolition in Charlotte on Friday, with Jayson Tatum scoring 34 and the team hitting 24 of 44 threes.
The schedule is what makes this one interesting. Boston plays in Milwaukee on Sunday, in Philadelphia on Tuesday night and then flies to Toronto for the second half of a back-to-back. That’s the last stop of a four-game road trip, and the Tuesday game is Jaylen Brown’s first meeting with the team that traded him in July. Toronto, by contrast, hosts Memphis on Monday and then gets a full day off.
There’s history on Boston’s side. The Celtics won all four meetings last season, 121-113 and 112-96 in Toronto in December, then 125-117 and 115-101 at TD Garden. Brown and Brandon Ingram played in those games and both are gone now, Brown to Philadelphia and Ingram to the Clippers in the Leonard trade, so the series has less to say about Wednesday than the 4-0 suggests.
No line was posted for this game when we wrote this preview, which leaves room to argue it from the context. I think the context points one way: a home team with rest, a deep bench that just proved itself, and a road team on its fourth game in six nights.
Toronto Raptors: 5-4 with a bench that keeps covering the gaps 
Toronto is 5-4 and 2-1 at home. Before Friday it had lost three of four: 121-114 at home to Orlando, then 131-125 to the Lakers and 128-109 in Denver, with a 125-118 win over the Clippers in between. The trip ended with the comeback in Milwaukee, which was also the Raptors’ first win in NBA Cup play.
The injury picture shapes everything. Leonard has missed seven straight games with left knee swelling, finished treatment on 3 November and started his return-to-play process, with an update expected around 10 November. One report had him possibly back for this game, while the league injury list estimated 23 November. Barnes, who’s averaging 23.5 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists, is day to day with a left adductor problem, and Quickley is day to day with hamstring tightness.
Without them, the rotation has held up better than expected. RJ Barrett had 27 points, seven rebounds and five assists in Milwaukee and averages 20.9 for the season. Jakob Poeltl added 19 and 11, Collin Murray-Boyles had 19, and Jamal Shead handed out 16 assists in his start. That lineup, Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter, Barrett, Murray-Boyles and Poeltl, is the one Toronto would use again if Barnes and Quickley stay out.
The offense has been the steadier half. Toronto scored 117.9 points a game through its first eight, eighth in the league, with an offensive rating of 116.4. The defense ranked 13th by rating and 17th in points allowed at 113.5, and the three-point shooting has been poor at 31.9%.
That shooting number is the part that could hurt against Boston, which allows 108.2 points a game, sixth in the NBA. Toronto plays at a pace of 101.3, seventh fastest, and the Celtics are 29th at 96.4, so the Raptors will want to run before Boston’s half-court defense sets up on tired legs.
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Boston Celtics: Tatum and George carrying a 7-2 start, with a heavy week ahead 
Boston traded Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia for Paul George and two first-round picks, and the deal became official on 6 July. George has fitted in quickly: 21.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists a game, with 41.4% from three. He scored 25 in Wednesday’s 109-102 win over Milwaukee.
Tatum is the engine. He’s averaging 27.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists, and his three-point shooting sat at 22.9% before he made five in Charlotte. Payton Pritchard, who scored 30 against Chicago on 30 October, adds 13.0 a night, and Derrick White averages 12.8 points and 5.1 assists.
The home and road records split sharply. Boston is 5-0 at TD Garden and 2-2 away from it, and the two road defeats include a 109-93 loss in Houston on 2 November, when Tatum shot poorly and the Celtics scored 93. Their net rating of +6.1 is eighth in the league, built on a top-ten defense rather than a top-ten pace.
The bigs have changed as well. Neemias Queta signed a four-year, $56 million extension and is back in the starting lineup, averaging 9.8 points and 6.3 rebounds. Mitchell Robinson arrived on a three-year deal and gives 5.7 points and 5.3 rebounds off the bench.
Health has been good apart from Devin Carter’s illness. Pritchard played through an eye abrasion and a shoulder contusion last week, and both he and Tatum were questionable before Wednesday’s game and played. Whether Boston’s staff manages anyone’s minutes on the second night of a back-to-back, after a game in Philadelphia that’ll carry its own emotion, is something to watch on Wednesday afternoon.
Probable lineup Toronto Raptors: Jamal Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett, Collin Murray-Boyles, Jakob Poeltl (Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley day to day, Kawhi Leonard expected update around 10 November)
Probable lineup Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Jayson Tatum, Paul George, Neemias Queta
Free NBA Prediction: Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics
Our prediction: Toronto Raptors to win
Boston is the better team over a full season, and the 4-0 sweep last year is a fair argument against us. But this game falls at the worst point of the Celtics’ week: the fourth road game in six nights, the second night of a back-to-back, and straight after the Brown game in Philadelphia. Boston is 2-2 away from home, and its offense scored 93 in the one road game where its shooting went cold.
Toronto gets a day off after hosting Memphis, plays at home, and has shown in Milwaukee that it can win with Barrett, Poeltl, Murray-Boyles and a bench that produced a 27-point night. If Barnes or Quickley return, the case gets stronger. If Leonard is cleared, it becomes a different game altogether.
The Raptors’ pace, seventh in the league, is the right weapon against a Celtics team that plays at the 29th-fastest tempo and will be short on legs. We’re backing Toronto on the moneyline, and we’d check the Raptors’ injury report on Wednesday before the line moves.
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