- 1 Edmonton Oilers vs Philadelphia Flyers: the NHL’s first-ranked offense against its 32nd
- 2 Edmonton Oilers: 33.9% on the power play, and a goaltending question
- 3 Philadelphia Flyers: 23.5 shots a game and two goalies under .900
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Edmonton Oilers vs Philadelphia Flyers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Edmonton Oilers vs Philadelphia Flyers: the NHL’s first-ranked offense against its 32nd 
Philadelphia scores 2.17 goals a game, the fewest in the NHL. Edmonton scores 4.12, the most. That gap of almost two goals a night is the clearest way into Wednesday 11 November at Rogers Place, puck drop 9:00pm ET, and it explains why the two teams sit at opposite ends of the standings.
Edmonton is 11-3-3 with 25 points and leads the Pacific. Connor McDavid has a point in all 17 games this season, 10 goals and 34 assists, and the Oilers have scored 70 goals, the most in the league. Their shooting percentage of 16.1% is also first in the league.
Philadelphia is 4-10-4, last in the Metropolitan, and hasn’t beaten a division opponent yet. The Flyers started 0-6-3, and their most recent result was a 3-2 loss at Madison Square Garden on 5 November, when they led 2-1 in the third period and gave up two goals in under two minutes.
This game is the fourth stop of a five-game road trip for the Flyers. They play in Calgary on Sunday and Vancouver on Monday, a back-to-back, then get one day off before Edmonton. The Oilers host Vancouver on Saturday and the Rangers on Monday and also get Tuesday off, so neither team is on consecutive nights.
The one complication for Edmonton is the home record. The Oilers are 7-0-1 on the road but only around .500 at Rogers Place, and they’ve lost their last two: 4-3 in a shootout in New Jersey and 5-4 at home to Anaheim on 5 November. That second game is where the analysis has to start for the home side.
Edmonton Oilers: 33.9% on the power play, and a goaltending question 
Against Anaheim, McDavid had a goal and three assists, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard each scored, and Edmonton still lost 5-4. The goaltending fell to Tomkins, who made 16 saves, because Tristan Jarry missed the game through illness and the Oilers had to activate an emergency backup. That loss says more about the crease than about the team.
The scoring is spread across the top of the lineup. Draisaitl has 14 goals and 31 points, Bouchard 10 goals and 30 points from the blue line, and Podkolzin nine goals. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who set the franchise record for games played in New Jersey, has 11 points in eight games.
The power play is the weapon. It converts at 33.9%, third in the NHL, with 21 goals from 62 chances. Philadelphia’s penalty kill, at 80.0%, ranks 13th, which is respectable, but it’s the one part of the Flyers’ game that has held up.
The defensive side is weaker. Edmonton allows 3.00 goals a game and its penalty kill sits at 74.1%, 22nd. Jarry has a 2.57 goals-against average and a .902 save percentage, with two straight shutouts at the end of October, 4-0 against Calgary and 4-0 on Long Island.
The injury list is long. Zach Hyman went on injured reserve on 28 October, and Devon Levi and Frederik Andersen are also on IR, along with Janmark, Savoie and Regula. Isaac Howard is day to day. Mike Babcock’s projected top line is Podkolzin, McDavid and Draisaitl, with Jarry expected back in goal if he’s recovered.
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Philadelphia Flyers: 23.5 shots a game and two goalies under .900 
Philadelphia takes 23.5 shots a game, 30th in the league, and allows 29.2, 26th. That’s a deficit of almost six shots every night, and it shows up in a goal difference of 39 for and 60 against. The Flyers’ power play, at 16.4%, ranks 26th, so they don’t make up the gap on special teams either.
Matvei Michkov is the scorer, with 10 goals in 18 games, almost a quarter of the team’s total. Trevor Zegras leads in points with 4-10-14, and rookie Martone has eight. Travis Konecny returned on 1 November after missing 10 games and scored in the 6-3 win over Utah, the Flyers’ only victory in their last five.
Rick Tocchet has rotated his goaltenders almost game by game. Vladar is 3-4-2 with a 3.21 goals-against average and an .883 save percentage, and Joseph Woll, acquired from Toronto in June, is 1-6-2 with a 3.12 and .898. Woll played in New York, so Vladar’s turn would likely fall in Calgary or Vancouver, and the Edmonton start is open.
The road record is the second problem. Philadelphia is 1-6-1 away from home, and the recent defeats have followed a pattern: a lead or a tied game into the third period, then a late goal against. That happened in New York, and earlier in a 4-3 overtime loss to Columbus.
Ristolainen and Grebenkin are on injured reserve. The projected lines put Zegras with Dvorak and Konecny, and Michkov on a third line with Foerster and Cates, which spreads the scoring but leaves the Flyers without a top unit to match McDavid’s.
Probable lineup Edmonton Oilers: Podkolzin – McDavid – Draisaitl; Dach – Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen; Ekholm – Bouchard; Jarry in goal (if recovered from illness)
Probable lineup Philadelphia Flyers: Zegras – Dvorak – Konecny; Foerster – Cates – Michkov; Sanheim – Drysdale; Vladar or Woll in goal
Free NHL Prediction: Edmonton Oilers vs Philadelphia Flyers
Our prediction: Edmonton Oilers to win by 2 goals or more (puck line -1.5)
The Oilers’ home record is the honest argument against this pick, and the Anaheim game showed what happens when the goaltending goes wrong. But that loss came with an emergency backup in the building, and Edmonton still scored four. Against the league’s lowest-scoring team, four goals should be enough by a distance.
Philadelphia arrives on the fourth game of a road trip, after a back-to-back in Calgary and Vancouver, with a 1-6-1 road record and goaltenders at .883 and .898. Edmonton’s power play converts at 33.9%, and the Flyers’ shot deficit of almost six a game means they’ll spend long stretches defending McDavid and Draisaitl.
The Flyers did win 5-2 at Rogers Place last January, which is a reminder that this matchup isn’t automatic. The gap between the teams is wider now than it was then, though, and a straight Oilers moneyline will price short. We’re taking Edmonton on the puck line, to win by two or more.
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