- 1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers: a 7-2 rout in Edmonton, and three straight Leafs losses since
- 2 Toronto Maple Leafs: 4-6-1 at home and a defense missing Rielly
- 3 Edmonton Oilers: 4.11 goals a game, the best in the NHL, with Levi and Jarry sharing the net
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers: a 7-2 rout in Edmonton, and three straight Leafs losses since 
The last time these teams met, Toronto won 7-2 at Rogers Place in late October. Anthony Stolarz was the game’s top performer, and it was one of four straight Leafs wins that took them to 7-4-2.
They’ve gone 1-5 in regulation since. The Leafs have lost three straight, 3-2 to Utah, 4-2 to Montreal and 4-0 to New Jersey, all of them at Scotiabank Arena, and sit at 8-9-2.
The Oilers are 13-3-3 after a 3-1 win over the Rangers on Monday, with Devon Levi in goal, and they beat Vancouver 4-2 two nights earlier with Leon Draisaitl named top performer.
Puck drop is Saturday, November 14, at 7pm ET in Toronto, on NHL Network. It’s the Leafs’ third home game in five nights, after Colorado on Tuesday and Minnesota on Thursday. Edmonton host Philadelphia on Wednesday, then fly east to open a road trip, and play in Philadelphia again on Sunday.
No line had been posted at the time of writing. I’d expect Edmonton to be favored on the road, and I wouldn’t argue with it.
The Leafs have scored two goals and allowed eight in their last two games. Edmonton have scored four or more in 12 of their 19, and they’ve lost once in regulation since the defeat to Toronto.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 4-6-1 at home and a defense missing Rielly 
Toronto’s home record going into this week was 4-6-1. For a team that’s scored around 3.4 goals a game, the issue has been the other end, where they’ve allowed 3.3 and close to 30 shots a night.
Half of their eight wins have come on the road: 6-3 in Colorado, 6-2 in Columbus, 7-2 in Edmonton and 4-2 in Vancouver.
The goaltending has been split between Sergei Bobrovsky and Stolarz. Stolarz started the 7-2 win in Edmonton and the 6-2 win in Columbus, but he was also in net for the 4-0 loss to New Jersey on Sunday.
Morgan Rielly has been dealing with an injury, and Kirill Marchenko and several depth players have appeared on the unavailable list. Marchenko had been the top performer in a 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo in October.
Teddy Blueger has been named top performer in two of the last six games, in Vancouver and in the 4-0 loss to New Jersey. Jack Roslovic led the way in the 3-2 defeat to Utah, and Easton Cowan and Brandon Duhaime have each had a night as well.
Auston Matthews and William Nylander have carried most of the offense, with one or the other named top performer in eight of the 19 games. The power play has been productive, and against an Edmonton team that’s allowed 2.94 goals a game, that’s where Toronto’s path to a win runs.
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Edmonton Oilers: 4.11 goals a game, the best in the NHL, with Levi and Jarry sharing the net 
Edmonton scored 74 goals in their first 18 games, 4.11 a night and the highest average in the league. They allowed 53, or 2.94 a game, which is enough to stay ahead when the offense is producing at that rate.
Connor McDavid was top performer in the 9-7 win in Vancouver, the 6-2 win in Utah and the overtime win over Minnesota, and Draisaitl was top performer in the 6-5 shootout win over Carolina.
Frederik Andersen remains unavailable, so the crease belongs to Levi and Tristan Jarry. Jarry posted back-to-back shutouts against Calgary and in New York, both 4-0, and Levi stopped all but one shot against the Rangers on Monday.
Edmonton’s six non-wins include three shootout or overtime losses, a 4-2 loss to Utah, a 5-4 loss to Anaheim and the 7-2 loss to Toronto, the one game this season where the Oilers were blown out.
Sunday’s game in Philadelphia makes Saturday the front half of a back-to-back, so Edmonton will likely split Levi and Jarry across the two nights. Levi has started the last two games, and Jarry owns both of the shutouts.
Evan Bouchard has been top performer four times from the blue line. On the road the Oilers are 7-0-1, with wins in Vancouver, Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles, Utah and twice in New York.
Probable lineup Toronto Maple Leafs: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Edmonton Oilers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers
Our prediction: Edmonton Oilers to win (moneyline)
I’m taking Edmonton. The league’s top offense, averaging more than four goals a game and 7-0-1 on the road, faces a Toronto team that’s lost three straight at home and conceded 11 goals in those games. The Oilers have two days of rest after Wednesday, while the Leafs play their third home game in five nights.
The 7-2 result in October is the obvious counterpoint, and Toronto have been better on the road (4-3-1) than at home all season. That game came in Edmonton, though, and the Leafs haven’t found that form in their own building since.
We’d only back the Oilers at 1.45 or bigger. If the price comes in shorter, Edmonton to score three or more goals is the alternative.
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