- 1 Montreal Canadiens vs Colorado Avalanche: 8-0-2 in ten against a 3-5 road team
- 2 Montreal Canadiens: 5-2-2 at Bell Centre and Fowler’s two shutouts
- 3 Colorado Avalanche: four goals a game, but 3-5 away from Ball Arena
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs Colorado Avalanche
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Montreal Canadiens vs Colorado Avalanche: 8-0-2 in ten against a 3-5 road team 
Montreal haven’t lost in regulation in ten games. That’s eight wins and two overtime losses, and it’s carried the Canadiens to 11-3-3 going into Tuesday’s home game against Minnesota.
The latest of those wins came over the weekend in Toronto, 4-2, with Alex Newhook named top performer. Over the ten-game run Montreal have scored 3.8 goals a game and allowed 2.6.
Colorado come to Bell Centre on Saturday, November 14, at 7pm ET, and the Avalanche have been a different team away from Denver. They’re 10-6-2 overall and 3-5 on the road, with losses in Winnipeg, Philadelphia, New Jersey, Nashville and Columbus.
It’s the last stop of a three-game swing through Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal. The Canadiens play in Boston on Thursday, and neither team plays on Friday.
No line had been posted at the time of writing. I expect Colorado to be priced as the road favorite because of the names on the roster, and that’s exactly why Montreal look like the value.
All three of Montreal’s regulation defeats came in the first seven games of the season: 6-4 to Carolina, 5-2 to Nashville and 5-4 in Washington. Since then the Canadiens have taken at least a point from every game.
Montreal Canadiens: 5-2-2 at Bell Centre and Fowler’s two shutouts 
Jacob Fowler has started most of the run. He shut out Detroit 1-0 through a shootout at Bell Centre and St. Louis 2-0 on the road, and he was in net for the wins in Chicago, Winnipeg and Toronto.
Jakub Dobes has handled the rest, including a 5-2 win in Dallas and the 5-4 overtime win over Utah. Samuel Montembeault has been unavailable, which leaves Fowler and Dobes to split the work.
Cole Caufield and Josh Anderson have each been named top performer four times, and Nick Suzuki three. Montreal have scored 59 goals and allowed 53 through 17 games, a plus-six differential that undersells the last month.
Mike Matheson and Ivan Demidov are out, and Anderson has been dealing with a personal matter. Losing Matheson takes minutes off a blue line that has to handle MacKinnon and Necas, and Demidov’s absence removes a scorer from the forward group.
Seven different players have been named top performer, from Zack Bolduc against Carolina to Jake Evans in Chicago and Fowler in both shutouts.
At home the Canadiens are 5-2-2. Four of those five wins needed overtime or a shootout, against Detroit, Buffalo twice and Utah, which says they’re finding ways to close tight games rather than running teams out of the building.
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Colorado Avalanche: four goals a game, but 3-5 away from Ball Arena 
Colorado average four goals a game, third in the league, and put more than 30 shots on goal a night. They also allow about 3.1, and the road numbers explain most of the six regulation losses.
The worst of them came in Columbus earlier this month, 7-2, with Scott Wedgewood in net. In late October, Nashville beat them 6-2. The Avalanche were also beaten 3-2 in Philadelphia and 4-3 in New Jersey on consecutive nights in October.
Nathan MacKinnon has been top performer four times and Martin Necas four times, and Cale Makar has twice led the way from the blue line. At home Colorado have scored eight against Los Angeles and six against both St. Louis and Tampa Bay.
Mackenzie Blackwood has been the steadier goaltender, with a 4-0 shutout of Detroit on Saturday. Wedgewood has started most of the bad road nights, including Columbus, Nashville and New Jersey.
Nazem Kadri has been top performer twice, in a shootout loss to Dallas and a 5-2 win in Chicago, and Brock Nelson led the 8-4 opener against Los Angeles. Sam Malinski was top performer in a 5-2 home win over New Jersey.
Josh Manson is unavailable, which thins out a defense that’s allowed 30 goals in eight road games, 3.75 a night. On a road trip that runs Toronto on Tuesday and Ottawa on Thursday before Montreal, Colorado will be playing their third road game in five nights.
Probable lineup Montreal Canadiens: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Colorado Avalanche: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs Colorado Avalanche
Our prediction: Montreal Canadiens to win (moneyline)
I’m backing Montreal at home. The Canadiens haven’t lost in regulation in ten games, they’re 5-2-2 at Bell Centre, and Colorado have won three of eight on the road with a defense that concedes 3.75 a night away from Denver.
The Avalanche have more star power, and MacKinnon, Necas and Makar can win a game on their own. Montreal’s absences, Matheson on the blue line and Demidov up front, are the reason this isn’t a stronger call. But Colorado’s road form has been poor for a month, and they’ll be on the third leg of a trip.
We’d only take Montreal at 1.45 or bigger, which should be comfortably available if Colorado open as favorites. If the price on Montreal moves below that, we’d pass rather than chase a different market.
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