- 1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche: 68 goals in 17 games against a third game in four days
- 2 Toronto Maple Leafs: an 88.1% penalty kill that’s starting to leak
- 3 Colorado Avalanche: 3-5-0 on the road and a goaltending question
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche: 68 goals in 17 games against a third game in four days 
Colorado has scored 68 goals in 17 games, and it led the NHL in goals before Thursday. Toronto has 62 in 17, and both teams have been allowing about 3.3 a game, a combination that explains why the first meeting ended 6-3.
That game was on 10 October at Ball Arena, and Toronto won it. William Nylander had two goals and three assists, Auston Matthews had two goals and two assists, and Sergei Bobrovsky made 30 saves while Colorado outshot the Leafs 33-23.
The rematch is at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday 10 November, puck drop 7:00pm ET. Toronto will be playing its third game in four days, after hosting Montreal on Saturday and New Jersey on Sunday. Colorado hosts Detroit on Saturday and then has two days to travel, and this is the start of a road swing through Ottawa and Montreal.
Both teams went into the weekend in the middle of their divisions. Colorado was 9-6-2 after losing 3-2 in overtime to Nashville on Thursday, while Toronto stood at 8-7-2 and sixth in the Atlantic.
Last season’s two meetings were split. Toronto won 4-3 in overtime in Denver on 12 January, ending a 17-game Avalanche home winning streak, and Colorado won 4-1 at Scotiabank Arena on 25 January with a hat trick from Nelson.
Toronto Maple Leafs: an 88.1% penalty kill that’s starting to leak 
Matthews has 11 goals and 26 points in 17 games, Nylander has 10 goals and 21 points, and Jack Roslovic has 18 points on a career-best seven-game point streak. Matthews’s game-tying goal contribution against Utah on Tuesday moved him past Dave Keon for second in franchise history.
Toronto’s power play is at 28.8%, sixth in the league, with 15 goals from 52 chances. Colorado’s penalty kill sits 17th at 76.9%, and that’s the most direct route to goals in this game for the Leafs.
The Leafs’ own penalty kill ranks fourth at 88.1%, but it’s allowed a goal in five straight games, and they’ve been shorthanded 59 times, the third-most in the NHL. They’ve also conceded 40 five-on-five goals, tied for second-most in the league.
Bobrovsky is 3-6-2 with a 3.27 goals-against average and an .889 save percentage, and Stolarz is 5-1-0 with a 2.66 and a .910. Jim Hiller hasn’t named a starter, and the Sunday game makes it likely each of them works this weekend, with Tuesday’s choice still open.
John Tavares was upgraded to day to day on 3 November after missing time since 15 October with a lower-body injury, and he had to pass Friday’s practice to be cleared for Saturday. Marchenko, Wood and Domi are all on injured lists without return dates.
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Colorado Avalanche: 3-5-0 on the road and a goaltending question 
Nathan MacKinnon has 9 goals and 27 points through 16 games, and Artturi Lehkonen leads the team with 12 goals. Martin Necas and Cale Makar each had 18 points before Thursday, and Devon Toews had 15, so Jared Bednar has plenty of scoring from the blue line as well as up front.
The Avalanche beat New Jersey, Calgary and Chicago by the same 5-2 score in a three-game run from 28 October to 2 November. Then Columbus scored seven on them on Tuesday, on the second night of a back-to-back, and Nashville took Thursday’s game in overtime.
Mackenzie Blackwood is 8-3-1 with a 2.81 goals-against average and an .893 save percentage, and he hasn’t allowed more than three goals in any of his last nine games. Scott Wedgewood is 1-3-1 with a 4.02 and an .867, and he was pulled in Columbus after allowing four goals on nine shots.
Road form is the main weakness. Colorado is 6-1-2 at Ball Arena and 3-5-0 away from it, and the 5-2 win in Chicago on 2 November is its latest success outside Denver. The power play has slipped to 20.0%, and the penalty kill’s 76.9% doesn’t match last season’s team, which led the league in fewest goals allowed.
Josh Manson is out for about eight weeks with an ankle injury suffered on 28 October, which has put Sam Malinski alongside Toews and Juulsen on the third pair with Brent Burns. Zachary L’Heureux is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury.
Probable lineup Toronto Maple Leafs: Cowan-Matthews-Roslovic, Tavares-Paul-Nylander, Joshua-Sissons-McKenna, Duhaime-Blueger-MacEwen; goalie not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Colorado Avalanche: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Necas, Landeskog-Kadri-Roy, Schwartz-Nelson-Hughes, Kelly-Svechkov-O’Connor; goalie not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche
Our prediction: Over on total goals (ideally a line of 6.5)
Both teams concede about 3.3 goals a game, and they ranked first and fifth in goals scored before Thursday. The first meeting produced nine goals, including an empty-netter, and Toronto’s power play gets a 76.9% penalty kill. We don’t need either team to play well defensively for a line of 6.5 to be reached.
The case for fewer goals is Blackwood’s run of nine games without allowing more than three, and Toronto’s penalty kill still ranks fourth. We’d set that against a Leafs team on a third game in four days and a defense that’s already given up 40 goals at five on five.
Totals weren’t available at the time of writing. We’d take the Over only at 1.45 or longer, and Toronto’s starter, whichever of Bobrovsky or Stolarz gets the call, should be checked on Tuesday morning.
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