- 1 Torino vs Monza: Simeone’s form meets a promoted side that has scored in every game
- 2 Torino: a front two in form and a settled shape under Abate
- 3 Monza: Varela’s six goals keep them scoring, but their defence travels badly
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Torino vs Monza
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Torino vs Monza: Simeone’s form meets a promoted side that has scored in every game 
Giovanni Simeone scored twice at the Tardini on Monday night, one from a Belghali assist and one from long range in the second half, as Torino won 3-0 at Parma. Che Adams added the other, and Torino were in front inside the first 25 minutes, spoiling Alberto Gilardino’s first home match in charge of Parma.
It was Torino’s second league win in a row and it lifted Ignazio Abate’s side to 10th, with ten points from seven games: three wins, a draw and three defeats, with a goal difference of plus one. Abate, who replaced Roberto D’Aversa in June, has had an uneven first few months, but the last fortnight has given Torino something to build on.
Monza beat Cagliari 4-0 at home on Monday, with Eddy Kouadio scoring on 39 minutes, Gustavo Varela adding two in the second half and Jay Robinson getting the other on 66. Varela even had a third ruled out for offside, and his brace took him to six league goals this season.
The promoted side are 14th on seven points, with two wins, a draw and four defeats, and their profile is unusual for a newly promoted team. They’ve scored in every league game so far, but their away record is poor: a 4-1 defeat at Inter on the opening weekend, a 1-1 draw at Parma, a 3-2 loss at Lecce and a 3-1 defeat at Lazio. That’s five goals scored and 11 conceded on their travels.
Put those two trends side by side and Friday’s game at the Olimpico Grande Torino looks like one where both sides find the net. Torino are home favourites at around 2.10, but I’m more interested in what the scoring patterns say. Kick-off is 7:45pm UK time.
Torino: a front two in form and a settled shape under Abate 
Abate has settled on a 3-4-2-1 that gets Simeone and Adams close together, with Vlasic operating behind them. The win at Parma showed why it suits this squad: the wing-backs, Belghali on the right and Cacciamani on the left, give Torino width, and the two strikers are left to attack crosses and cut-backs.
Simeone’s two goals on Monday were very different, which is part of the point. One came from Belghali’s delivery, the other from a long-range strike, and Adams’ goal gave Torino a third route to scoring in the same game. Opponents can’t just sit deep and defend the box against them.
Mandragora and Braganca should again form the midfield pair. Parma’s first half on Monday was poor, and Torino’s midfield gave them no time to recover after the early goals. Two straight wins have also come with no new injuries.
Goalkeeper Franco Israel, Niccolo Fortini and Emirlan Ilkhan are all injured, and Perri should continue in goal behind a back three of Comuzzo, Ismajli and Saul Coco.
The recent head-to-head at this ground is tight. In three league meetings in Turin since 2023, Torino have won once, 1-0, and drawn twice, both 1-1. Monza scored in two of those three games, which fits the pattern of a visiting side that usually finds a goal from somewhere.
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Monza: Varela’s six goals keep them scoring, but their defence travels badly 
Varela is the reason Monza have scored in all seven league games. His six goals make up a large share of their total, and the Cagliari game showed his range: a finish early in the second half, a late second on 79 minutes and an assist on top. He’ll lead the line again on Friday, with Dany Mota and Robinson behind him.
Three different players scored against Cagliari, and Kouadio’s opener came from one of the back three. Monza get numbers into the box, and the wing-backs, Birindelli and Mangas, push high to support the front three.
The cost of that approach shows away from home. Eleven goals conceded in four away games is the worst part of their record, and only the 1-1 at Parma produced a point. Torino’s front two will see plenty of the space left behind those advanced wing-backs.
The squad is also stretched at the back. Lorenzo Lucchesi is suspended, Ziolkowski is injured, and Yvan Maye is a new doubt. Pessina remains out, and Exequiel Zeballos, signed in the summer, is also doubtful. That leaves Kouadio, Goglichidze and Carboni as the likely back three.
Tornqvist made a couple of important early saves against Cagliari before Monza took control, and he may need to do more of the same in Turin. Monza aren’t short of attacking intent, but they’ve yet to win away from home this season.
Probable lineup Torino: Perri; Comuzzo, Ismajli, Saul Coco; Belghali, Mandragora, Braganca, Cacciamani; Vlasic; Simeone, Adams
Probable lineup Monza: Tornqvist; Kouadio, Goglichidze, Carboni; Birindelli, Foe Ondoa, Akinsanmiro, Mangas; Dany Mota, Robinson; Varela
Free Serie A Prediction: Torino vs Monza
Our prediction: Both teams to score (odds around 1.75)
Monza have scored in every league game this season, including all four away trips, where they found the net five times. Varela has six goals already and arrives on the back of a brace. That makes a Monza goal the most reliable part of this match.
Torino have every chance of scoring as well: Monza have conceded 11 times in four away games, and Simeone and Adams combined for all three goals at Parma. The one thing that could undo this pick is a Torino clean sheet, and the recent head-to-head in Turin, with two 1-1 draws in three meetings, shows Monza usually find a way through.
I’d take both teams to score at around 1.75 over a straight Torino win at 2.10. The likeliest outcome is a home win by a single goal, 2-1, but the goals market protects against a draw and rewards the pattern both teams have shown since August.
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