- 1 Stuttgart vs Borussia Monchengladbach: a winless Gladbach arrive with 20 goals conceded in six games
- 2 Stuttgart: dominant in Europe, wasteful in the league, and short of bodies at the back
- 3 Borussia Monchengladbach: Blessin’s defensive rebuild hasn’t started yet
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: Stuttgart vs Borussia Monchengladbach
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Stuttgart vs Borussia Monchengladbach: a winless Gladbach arrive with 20 goals conceded in six games 
Only three clubs before this season had started a Bundesliga campaign with six straight defeats: Fortuna Dusseldorf in 1991-92, Mainz in 2020-21 and Bochum in 2022-23. Borussia Monchengladbach joined them last Sunday, losing 2-1 at home to Hoffenheim, and on Friday night they travel to the MHPArena with a chance of standing alone.
Gladbach have scored eight and conceded 20, a goal difference of minus 12, and they let in at least three goals in each of their first four league games. They sit bottom, five points behind Union Berlin in 17th, and they’ve already been through two coaches. Eugen Polanski was dismissed on 13 September, the day after a 5-0 defeat at Freiburg, and Jan-Moritz Lichte oversaw a 4-3 home loss to Mainz before Alexander Blessin was appointed on 22 September.
Stuttgart’s start has been poor by their own standards, but in a different way. Sebastian Hoeness’s side are 13th with six points from six games, two wins and four defeats, and the latest of those was a 1-0 loss at Hamburg on 17 October. Their European form has been far better: two convincing wins in the Champions League, including 3-0 at Slovan Bratislava, followed by Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid.
That Atletico game is worth dwelling on, because it explains Friday’s main uncertainty. Leweling put Stuttgart ahead on 36 minutes, Alvarez equalised on 64, and Stuttgart failed to win despite playing against ten men. The finishing let them down, and they now have three days to recover before a home league game they’re heavily expected to win.
Bookmakers make Stuttgart around 1.40 to win, which is too short to be worth backing on its own. The more useful question is how many goals this game produces, and Gladbach’s season answers that fairly clearly. Kick-off is 7:30pm UK time.
Stuttgart: dominant in Europe, wasteful in the league, and short of bodies at the back 
Stuttgart’s problem in the Bundesliga hasn’t been creating chances. Against Atletico they played part of the match with a man advantage and still couldn’t find a winner, and in the league they’ve lost four times despite a squad that won its first two Champions League games convincingly.
The defeat at Hamburg ended a run of back-to-back wins, and the league table looks worse than the team does. Two wins and four losses from six games leaves them 13th, but the last head-to-head meeting with Gladbach shows what they can do against a disorganised side: they won 3-0 at Borussia-Park on 25 January.
The absences are mostly in defence and on the flanks. Tiago Tomas, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Justin Diehl were ruled out before the Atletico game with thigh problems, and Ameen Al-Dakhil is still out with a knee injury. Maximilian Mittelstadt and Nikolas Nartey only recently returned to training and are doubts.
Demirovic should lead the line again, with Undav and El Khannouss behind him and Leweling coming in from the right. That’s a front four with goals in it, and Gladbach have conceded at least twice in all six of their league games.
Stuttgart played 90 intense minutes on Tuesday and Hoeness may rotate in midfield, where Atakan Karazor and Stiller have carried most of the load. Even so, the home side’s attacking depth is far greater than anything Gladbach can call on.
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Borussia Monchengladbach: Blessin’s defensive rebuild hasn’t started yet 
Blessin arrived with one stated priority: defensive stability. Two games in, Gladbach have conceded four times, losing 2-1 at Koln on 11 October and 2-1 at home to Hoffenheim a week later. That’s an improvement on the early weeks, when they shipped 16 goals in their first four matches, but it hasn’t produced a point.
The Hoffenheim game showed where they still break down. Bambase Conte scored after 11 minutes, Wael Mohya equalised four minutes into the second half, and Alexander Prass restored Hoffenheim’s lead five minutes later. Captain Kevin Diks admitted afterwards that both goals were too easy to concede. The fans whistled the team off at half-time in front of 43,702.
Moritz Nicolas has been the one player keeping the margins down. He made two saves from Adam Hlozek in the space of four minutes after the hour and another from Mats Rots in the first half, while Fisnik Asllani hit the crossbar from a free-kick. Without Nicolas, Sunday’s defeat could have been heavier.
Tim Kleindienst, the captain and main striker, is out again with a muscle tear, and Enzo Leopold won’t return until late May after a cruciate ligament injury. Franck Honorat, Ko Itakura, Jens Castrop and Jan Leszczynski have all been unavailable recently, and the summer departures of Rocco Reitz to RB Leipzig and Nico Elvedi to Leeds have left the spine of the side much weaker.
There’s also a cup tie to think about. Gladbach host Karlsruher SC in the second round of the DFB-Pokal four days after this game, and that may be the more winnable match. Blessin’s team scores goals, eight in six games, but it hasn’t been able to stop them at the other end.
Probable lineup Stuttgart: Seimen; Vagnoman, Jeltsch, Chabot, Hendriks; Karazor, Stiller; Leweling, Undav, El Khannouss; Demirovic
Probable lineup Borussia Monchengladbach: Nicolas; Chiarodia, Diks, Sander; Lidberg, Mohya, Bolin, Ullrich; Neuhaus, Uno; Scally
Free Bundesliga Prediction: Stuttgart vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Our prediction: Over 3.5 goals (odds around 1.83)
Gladbach’s six league games have produced 28 goals, an average of more than four and a half per match. They conceded three or more on their own in each of the first four, and the 4-3 against Mainz and 5-0 at Freiburg both cleared this line comfortably. Stuttgart’s front four of Demirovic, Undav, El Khannouss and Leweling is more than capable of adding to that.
The case against is that Blessin’s two games have been tighter, both finishing 2-1. I’d still expect Stuttgart to score three or more at home against this defence, and Gladbach have scored in each of their last three league games, with Mohya and Neuhaus capable of punishing a tired Stuttgart midfield.
A Stuttgart win at 1.40 doesn’t offer enough. Over 3.5 goals at around 1.83 backs the most likely shape of the evening: a comfortable home win in which Gladbach still get on the scoresheet, something like 3-1 or 4-1.
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