- 1 Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights: 34 points conceded in three finals, and one game left
- 2 Sydney Roosters Analysis
- 3 Newcastle Knights Analysis
- 4 Free NRL Prediction: Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights: 34 points conceded in three finals, and one game left 
Thirty-four points. That is all Newcastle have conceded across three finals, against the three best attacks in the competition.
The Sydney Roosters face the Newcastle Knights in the 2026 NRL Grand Final on Sunday 4 October at Accor Stadium in Sydney. Kick-off is set for 7:30 p.m. AEDT, which means 10:30 Paris time.
The storylines could hardly be bigger. The Roosters want to send Daly Cherry-Evans out as a premiership winner in his final NRL game, while the Knights are chasing a title one year after finishing with the wooden spoon.
No team in the NRL era has gone from last place to premiers in a single season. Newcastle are 80 minutes from doing it.
The bookmakers back the Roosters at 1.45, with the Knights at 2.80. The line is set at 7.5 points and the total at 42.5.
That 7.5 is the number that matters. A side that has held three straight finals opponents to an average of 11.3 points does not lose Grand Finals by eight.
Sydney Roosters Analysis 
The Roosters finished fourth and are the only top-four side still standing. They lost to Penrith in week one of the finals, then recovered with wins over Cronulla and the Dolphins.
The 46-10 thrashing of the Sharks showed what this attack can do when it clicks. They looked just as sharp against the Dolphins in the preliminary final.
Trent Robinson has named an unchanged squad. Connor Watson is the one doubt after failing an HIA, and Benaiah Ioelu would come onto the bench if he is not cleared.
The middle trio of Naufahu Whyte, Lindsay Collins and Victor Radley sets the platform. Collins plays his 150th NRL game on Sunday.
Out wide, the right edge is the danger zone. Mark Nawaqanitawase has scored five tries in his last three games, with Robert Toia inside him and Cherry-Evans and Sam Walker steering the halves.
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Newcastle Knights Analysis 
Newcastle entered the finals in seventh. They have since beaten South Sydney, the Warriors in Auckland and Penrith, three wins in three weeks.
The win over the Warriors at Eden Park was a 12-10 grind. The win over Penrith came after surviving a 45-minute stretch with only 12 men on the field.
That kind of resilience does not appear by accident. This young forward pack has turned into one of the best defensive units in the competition over the past month.
There is one key loss. Hooker Phoenix Crossland is suspended for a hip-drop tackle on Nathan Cleary, so Harrison Graham is expected to start at number nine.
In attack, Kalyn Ponga drives everything from fullback. Dominic Young has scored five tries in his last three games at Accor Stadium, and the Knights will target the Billy Smith and Daniel Tupou edge.
Probable lineup Sydney Roosters: James Tedesco (c), Daniel Tupou, Billy Smith, Robert Toia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Daly Cherry-Evans, Sam Walker, Naufahu Whyte, Reece Robson, Lindsay Collins, Salesi Foketi, Siua Wong, Victor Radley. Bench: Connor Watson (HIA doubt), Angus Crichton, Nat Butcher, Spencer Leniu.
Probable lineup Newcastle Knights: Kalyn Ponga (c), Dominic Young, Dane Gagai, Bradman Best, Greg Marzhew, Fletcher Sharpe, Sandon Smith, Tyson Frizell, Harrison Graham (for suspended Phoenix Crossland), Cody Hopwood, Jermaine McEwen, Francis Manuleleua, Mat Croker. Bench: Lachlan Crouch, Pasami Saulo, Dylan Lucas.
Free NRL Prediction: Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights
Our prediction: Newcastle Knights +7.5 (odds 1.93)
The Roosters deserve to be favourites, and their head-to-head record is strong with six straight wins over Newcastle. But a Grand Final against a defense this stubborn is a different animal from a regular-season fixture.
The Knights have held three elite attacks to 11.3 points per game. Ask them to concede that again and the Roosters need a near-perfect night to cover 7.5.
Crossland’s suspension hurts, and Cherry-Evans can still decide the game. We still take the start: Newcastle stay within a converted try, and they have every chance to win it outright.
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