- 1 Sunderland vs Brentford: bottom of the league hosts sixth in the Carabao Cup
- 2 Sunderland: one league win, six goals, and a squad stretched by Europe
- 3 Brentford: one league defeat in eight and 8 goals in two cup rounds
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Sunderland vs Brentford
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sunderland vs Brentford: bottom of the league hosts sixth in the Carabao Cup 
Sunderland are bottom of the Premier League with five points from eight games. Their visitors on Wednesday night are sixth, six points better off, and have lost one league game all season.
The tie is a Carabao Cup fourth-round match at the Stadium of Light on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 7:45pm UK time, live on Sky Sports+. A draw after 90 minutes goes straight to penalties, and the winner goes into the quarter-final draw.
Sunderland’s league numbers are hard to argue with. Six goals scored in eight games, 14 conceded, and Saturday’s 0-0 at home to Leeds stretched their winless run in the Premier League to six. Régis Le Bris also has Europa League football to manage, which is why his side have played five games in 16 days.
Brentford haven’t been winning much either, but they’ve been hard to beat. Keith Andrews’ side have drawn five of eight league games and lost only once, 2-1 at home to Liverpool on 17 October. They came from behind to draw 1-1 at Hull on Saturday, Ouattara equalising after a McBurnie penalty.
The two sides drew 1-1 in west London on 5 September, Janelt scoring for Brentford before Le Fée equalised from the spot late on. I don’t read much into that one. Brentford won the previous meeting there 3-0 in January, and the gap between the clubs in the table has only grown since.
Bookmakers make Brentford favourites at around 1.91, with Sunderland and the draw both at 3.60. I’m with the market on who goes through, and I’ll explain below why I’d take the price.
Sunderland: one league win, six goals, and a squad stretched by Europe 
Sunderland’s last five games read like a side running on empty. They lost 2-0 at home to Brighton on 10 October, won 2-1 at Torreense five days later, lost 2-0 at Bournemouth on 18 October, drew 1-1 with Lech Poznan in Poland and then drew 0-0 with Leeds on Saturday.
That’s three goals in five matches, and two of them came against Torreense. In the Premier League they’ve failed to score in three of their last four games.
The injury list doesn’t help. Isidor, who scored the winner against Fulham earlier in the season, and Ballard are both out. Mukiele went off after 52 minutes against Leeds with a throat injury following a collision with O’Nien, and Danso was suspended for that game after his red card at Bournemouth.
There’s one bit of good news. Brobbey came back from a hamstring injury against Leeds, his first appearance since 20 September, and he gives Le Bris a proper focal point if he’s fit to start again so soon.
Rotation is the other question. Le Bris made 11 changes for the third-round win over Hull, settled by Talbi’s goal in the 71st minute. With a league game at the weekend and a European group to fight for, I’d expect plenty of changes again, and Sunderland’s second string hasn’t had to face a Premier League side yet in this competition.
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Brentford: one league defeat in eight and 8 goals in two cup rounds 
Brentford’s league table says W2 D5 L1, with 14 goals scored and nine conceded. Only the 2-1 defeat to Liverpool separates them from an unbeaten start.
The cup run has been more emphatic. They won 6-1 at Birmingham in the second round and 2-1 at Reading in the third, Wilson and Carvalho scoring at the Madejski. Both games were away from home, and both were won without much fuss.
The standout result of the season is still the 3-0 win over Chelsea on 18 September. Since then it’s been draws: 2-2 at Aston Villa on 10 October, then 1-1 at Hull on Saturday after the Liverpool defeat. Andrews’ side don’t lose many, but they need to turn more of those draws into wins.
Janelt and Yarmoliuk were both suspended at Hull, and Dasilva, Milambo and Furo have been on the injury list. Collins was back on the bench on Saturday and Van den Berg started, so the defence is in better shape than it was in September.
The side that started at Hull lined up in a 4-3-3: Kelleher; Kayode, Van den Berg, Ajer, Lewis-Potter; Sangaré, Hickey, Jensen; Ouattara, Thiago, Schade. Thiago scored in the Birmingham rout, and Schade already has a goal at Leeds this season.
Probable lineup Sunderland: Not announced at time of publication (heavy rotation expected)
Probable lineup Brentford: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Sunderland vs Brentford
Our prediction: Brentford to win in 90 minutes @ 1.91
I’m backing Brentford. Sunderland have scored six goals in eight Premier League games and none in three of their last four, and the side that beat Hull in the last round was made up of fringe players. Isidor’s absence takes away the one forward who’d scored a decisive league goal this season.
Brentford’s draws are the honest case against the pick. They haven’t won in three league games, and a penalty shoot-out is possible if they can’t break Sunderland down. But they scored eight goals in two away cup ties, they’ve lost once in the league all season, and Sunderland have one Premier League win from eight.
At 1.91 the price reflects a gap that’s real in every number from this season. Brentford to win inside 90 minutes is my call.
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