- 1 VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: seven straight for Füllkrug against a side with no league draws
- 2 VfB Stuttgart: 14 league goals, five defeats and no Stiller in midfield
- 3 Werder Bremen: one league defeat, nine Füllkrug goals and a midfield short of bodies
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: seven straight for Füllkrug against a side with no league draws 
Niclas Füllkrug has scored in seven straight Bundesliga games, and Werder Bremen bring that run to the MHPArena on Saturday 7 November, kick-off 17:30 UK time. He has nine league goals in eight matches, and Bremen sit fifth on 15 points.
VfB Stuttgart are 11th on nine, six points behind them. Bookmakers still price Stuttgart at 1.56, with the draw at 4.80 and Bremen at 5.00, and we wanted to know why a team with five league defeats is that short against one beaten once.
Most of the answer sits in last Saturday’s game at the BayArena. Stuttgart won 4-2 with 3.23 expected goals to Leverkusen’s 1.77, and it was their third straight league win over that opponent after failing to win in 15 competitive meetings before the run.
On Tuesday Stuttgart lost 2-0 at Galatasaray in the Champions League, so they’ve got three days and a flight home before this game, while Bremen will have had a full week since beating Hoffenheim 2-0 on 31 October.
The head-to-head offers neither club much: nine Stuttgart wins, nine draws and eight Bremen wins across 26 meetings. The most recent finished 1-1 in Stuttgart on 26 April, four months after Stuttgart had won 4-0 in Bremen on 14 December.
VfB Stuttgart: 14 league goals, five defeats and no Stiller in midfield 
Sebastian Hoeneß’s side haven’t drawn a Bundesliga game this season. Eight matches have brought three wins and five defeats, with 14 goals scored and 15 conceded, and those figures say more about a volatile team than a weak one.
The win at Leverkusen showed how many players can hurt a defence. Ermedin Demirovic scored on 14 and 65 minutes, Jamie Leweling added the second from a corner routine and Bilal El Khannouss drove in the third six minutes after half-time. Deniz Undav set up Demirovic’s second goal.
That performance came with Dennis Seimen in goal and three other changes, Luca Jaquez, Atakan Karazor and Chris Führich all coming into the side. Hoeneß has rotated throughout this run of fixtures, and he’ll weigh that again after 90 minutes in Istanbul.
Angelo Stiller is the absence that matters most. He’s been out since hurting his adductor in the DFB-Pokal win at Paderborn, and Leo Sauer, Josha Vagnoman, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Tomás are also listed as unavailable, which leaves Karazor and Grischa Prömel to hold the midfield.
The lowest point of the league season came at this ground on 23 October, a 3-2 defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach, who hadn’t taken a point before that night. We’d set that against the 4-1 home win over FC Koln earlier in the campaign, which is the range this team has shown in front of its own supporters.
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Werder Bremen: one league defeat, nine Füllkrug goals and a midfield short of bodies 
Daniel Thioune’s side have four wins, three draws and a single defeat, the 4-1 at Freiburg, and they’ve scored 17 goals. They haven’t lost in the league since that afternoon, a run that began with a 3-1 home win over RB Leipzig.
Füllkrug accounts for more than half of those goals. The 33-year-old, on loan from West Ham, became the first Bremen player to reach nine goals in his first eight games of a season, and against Hoffenheim he broke clear from Karl Hein’s long ball on 57 minutes.
Bremen’s expected goals against Hoffenheim came to 0.94, and Eren Dinkci’s second on 82 minutes had a 10% chance of going in, the lowest of the match. Three straight league games earlier in the season, against Augsburg, Dortmund and Paderborn, saw them go 2-0 down.
The 3-2 win at Mainz on 24 October was their first away league win of the season, and both Bremen goals before Ludovit Reis’s 61st-minute winner came from Füllkrug penalties.
Thioune’s injury list starts with Jens Stage, Skelly Alvero, Mohamed Stark, Moussa N’Diaye and Yunus Musah are all reported out, Justin Njinmah, Felix Agu and Keke Topp are absent too, and Olivier Deman is a doubt with a foot problem. Hoffenheim was the first league clean sheet of Bremen’s season, after they’d conceded in all seven games before it. Thioune has kept 84% of his starting side over the last six matches, against 62% for Hoeneß.
Probable lineup VfB Stuttgart: Seimen; Assignon, Jeltsch, Chabot, Mittelstädt; Karazor, Prömel; El Khannouss, Undav, Führich; Demirovic
Probable lineup Werder Bremen: Hein; Arthur, Pieper, Friedl, Deman; Reis, Lynen; Weiser, Chuki, Grüll; Füllkrug
Free Bundesliga Prediction: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Our prediction: VfB Stuttgart to win (1.56)
We’re backing Stuttgart at 1.56. Bremen’s unbeaten run is real and Füllkrug will probably score again, but they conceded in their first seven league games, they’ve won once away from home, and their midfield has lost Stage, Alvero and Musah against a Stuttgart attack that put four past Leverkusen a week ago.
The calendar is the case against us: Stuttgart played in Istanbul on Tuesday and lost, while Bremen have had seven days to prepare, and five league defeats from eight don’t justify much trust. We still rate the depth of Stuttgart’s attack above Bremen’s reliance on one striker.
Stuttgart beat Koln 4-1 at home and won 4-2 at Leverkusen last week, and none of their eight league games has been drawn. That second figure is why we’d take the home win over any double-chance price.
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