- 1 Lens vs Marseille: 11 goals in three league games arrive at Bollaert
- 2 Lens: Thauvin’s 11 goal involvements and a forward line with no Edouard
- 3 Marseille: 20 league goals, no European points and a 2-0 over Toulouse on Sunday
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lens vs Marseille
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lens vs Marseille: 11 goals in three league games arrive at Bollaert 
Marseille scored 5 at Angers, 4 against Le Havre and 2 against Toulouse in their last three Ligue 1 games. That’s 11 goals in a run of four straight league wins, and it takes them to Stade Bollaert-Delelis on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time.
The same side has lost all three Europa League games this season, and that’s the odd shape of Bruno Genesio’s autumn. Marseille are sixth in Ligue 1 on 15 points, with five wins and four defeats and no draws, and 34th of 36 in Europe.
Lens are ninth on 13 points, and Yannick Cahuzac’s side had won three straight league games, against Lyon, Troyes and Paris FC, before Olivier Giroud’s goal after 86 minutes settled the derby at Lille on 30 October.
Bookmakers have the home side as narrow favourites, Lens at 2.05, the draw at 3.75 and Marseille at 3.10. Draw or Marseille pays 1.73, and we think that’s where the value sits.
These clubs split last season’s league meetings, Lens winning 2-1 on 25 October 2025 and Marseille winning 3-1 on 24 January. The record over 17 meetings is eight Marseille wins, seven for Lens and two draws.
Lens: Thauvin’s 11 goal involvements and a forward line with no Edouard 
Florian Thauvin has four goals and seven assists in Ligue 1, plus one in the Champions League. Nobody else at the club comes close, with Ivanovic and Udol on two league goals each, and that dependency is the first thing Marseille will plan for.
Odsonne Edouard’s groin injury has him listed as out along with Sima, which leaves Ivanovic alone at the top of the side, and Lens scored five goals in their last five matches in all competitions while conceding eight.
Nawrocki and Ganiou are out with knee injuries, Chavez is unavailable, Celik is inactive and Gradit is a doubt with a muscle problem. Lens have kept one clean sheet in their last 10 matches.
Their last five home games in all competitions have brought three wins and two defeats, with nine scored and seven conceded, and the Paris FC win was settled late by Thorgan Hazard from the bench. Sporting beat them 2-0 at Bollaert in the Champions League on 13 October.
Europe has offered little relief. Lens beat Slavia Prague 3-2 away, then lost 2-0 at home to Sporting and 3-0 at Club Brugge, and they sit 27th in the Champions League table. Bookmakers made Como the favourites at Bollaert, 2.20 to Lens at 3.00, and over the last 10 matches Lens have scored and conceded 1.5 goals a game.
Como visit on Wednesday night, which gives Cahuzac a day more rest than Marseille will have. He’ll need it, because this will be their third match in 10 days.
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Marseille: 20 league goals, no European points and a 2-0 over Toulouse on Sunday 
Genesio’s side have 20 goals and 13 conceded in nine league games, level with Rennes and one behind PSG in the scoring chart. The 2-0 win over Toulouse on 1 November followed a 4-3 against Le Havre and a 5-2 at Angers, so they’ve kept one clean sheet in that run.
Besiktas beat them 4-1, Olympiacos won 1-0 at the Velodrome and Sturm Graz won 1-0 in Austria on 22 October, leaving them with one goal in three games. They go to Bayer Leverkusen on Thursday, where bookmakers price them at 7.00.
Kick-off in Germany is 20:00 UK time, leaving Marseille under 72 hours and a trip to northern France, and Genesio may rotate after naming the same XI in his last two league games.
The squad is in better shape than the one Lens will field. Derek Cornelius (hip) is out for several more weeks, with Emerson and Amine Harit doubts, and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Timothy Weah remain available for the midfield and flanks.
Genesio’s defence for Thursday is expected to have De Lange in goal behind Nayef Aguerd and CJ Egan-Riley, with Hojbjerg and Kamissoko in front of them, and that spine is a likely starting point on Sunday if he rests few players. Facundo Medina, who left for Leverkusen in August, is the summer departure they’ll face first.
Their last five away games show two wins and three defeats, eight scored and eight conceded. Since October 2025 they’ve lost once at Lens and won once at home to them.
Probable lineup Lens: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Marseille: Not announced at time of publication
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lens vs Marseille
Our prediction: Draw or Marseille (1.73)
We’re taking draw or Marseille at 1.73. Four straight league wins, 11 goals in the last three of them and a Lens side without Edouard, Sima, Nawrocki and Ganiou make the home price too short, and Thauvin can’t carry that attack alone.
The fixture list is the clear argument against us. Marseille play in Leverkusen on Thursday, Lens have a day more to recover, and Bollaert has produced three home wins in five. Marseille also haven’t drawn a league game this season, so this pick is effectively about how likely they are to win.
Lens’ one clean sheet in 10 is the number we keep coming back to. Marseille have scored in each of their last four league games, and they won the most recent meeting between these clubs 3-1 in January.
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