- 1 Sturm Graz vs Marseille: Sturm lose their goalkeeper, Marseille find their goals
- 2 Sturm Graz: six in the derby, nothing in Europe
- 3 Marseille: five at Angers after five straight defeats
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Sturm Graz vs Marseille
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: Sturm lose their goalkeeper, Marseille find their goals 
Daniil Khudyakov won’t be in goal for Sturm Graz on Thursday. The goalkeeper suffered an open fracture of the lower leg during Sunday’s 6-1 derby win over Grazer AK and has already had surgery.
That’s a heavy loss for a side whose only Europa League point came from a goalless draw with Rennes, a night when Khudyakov kept a clean sheet. Ammar Helac replaced him against GAK and is the likely starter at the Merkur-Arena, where kick-off is 5:45pm UK time.
Marseille arrive on the back of a 5-2 win at Angers on Sunday, having gone a goal down. Abdelli, Kamissoko, Gouiri from the spot, Harit and Paixao scored, and Bruno Genesio said afterwards it was the first time this season his team had come from behind.
In Europe, neither side has much to show. Sturm have one point and Marseille have none, after a 4-1 defeat at Besiktas and a 1-0 home loss to Olympiacos last Thursday.
Those two results stretched Marseille’s run to four straight defeats in European games. Sturm’s own European run is just as poor in front of goal: they’ve failed to score in four in a row, including both Champions League qualifying defeats to Fenerbahce and last week’s 3-0 loss at Bournemouth.
The clubs have never met in competition. One of these sides is going to end a bad European run on Thursday, and I think it’s the one with more goals in it.
Sturm Graz: six in the derby, nothing in Europe 
Domestically, Fabio Ingolitsch’s side are in decent shape. Sturm are fourth in the Austrian Bundesliga with 17 points from nine games, five wins, two draws and two defeats, seven points behind leaders Rapid.
Oumar Diakite scored a hat-trick against GAK after Sturm had gone a goal down, and he got both goals in the 2-0 win at Austria Wien on 10 October. That’s five league goals in two games for him.
Sturm drew 0-0 with Rennes, then lost 3-0 at Bournemouth. They’ve played 180 minutes in this league phase and haven’t found the net once.
The absence list before the Bournemouth game was long: Mamageishvili, Weiper, Kiteishvili, Rozga, Jatta and Soglo were all missing. I haven’t seen confirmation that any of them are back, and now Khudyakov joins them.
The 3-0 defeat at Salzburg on 20 September is the other guide to how they cope against a stronger side. Sturm haven’t scored against Salzburg, Bournemouth or Rennes in the last five weeks.
Sturm’s league numbers since that Salzburg defeat read two wins, eight goals scored and one conceded, so the domestic recovery is real. In Europe over the same period they’ve scored none and conceded three.
Helac came on for Khudyakov against GAK, and he’s the obvious candidate to start on Thursday. He’ll be playing behind a forward line that hasn’t scored in Europe this season.
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Marseille: five at Angers after five straight defeats 
Before the trip to Troyes on 11 October, Marseille had lost five matches in a row in all competitions, including the 2-1 home defeat by PSG in which Weah was sent off. They’ve since won 2-0 at Troyes and 5-2 at Angers, with the Olympiacos defeat in between.
Amine Gouiri led Ligue 1 with four goals before the Angers game and added a penalty there. His price to score at any time on Thursday is around 2.60.
Genesio’s side sit on nine points after seven league games. The Angers win took them into the top half, and it was their second league win in a row.
Kondogbia and Nnadi are back in midfield and both started at Angers, while Hojbjerg missed the trip with a thigh problem and Cornelius is out with a hip injury.
Five different players scored at Angers, and Abdelli and Kamissoko both got their goals before half-time to turn the game around by the 43rd minute.
The XI at Angers was De Lange; Weah, Egan-Riley, Emerson, Kondogbia; Nnadi, Abdelli; Kamissoko, Harit, Paixao; Gouiri. Abdallah has Marseille’s only Europa League goal so far.
Angers still scored twice, one from the penalty spot, and Marseille have conceded in four of their last five games in all competitions.
Probable lineup Sturm Graz: Not announced at time of publication (Helac expected in goal)
Probable lineup Marseille: De Lange; Weah, Egan-Riley, Emerson, Kondogbia; Nnadi, Abdelli; Kamissoko, Harit, Paixao; Gouiri
Free Europa League Prediction: Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Our prediction: Marseille to win (2.05)
I’d back Marseille at 2.05. They’ve scored seven goals in their last two league games, Gouiri is in form, and they face a home side that hasn’t scored in four European matches and has just lost its first-choice goalkeeper.
The argument for Sturm is their league form and a derby win that shows they can respond after going behind. Marseille’s own European record this season is two defeats from two, and that can’t be ignored. But Sturm’s only point came from a 0-0 at home to Rennes, and they’d need a similar night without Khudyakov behind them.
The goals markets are the alternative, with over 2.5 at 1.67 and both teams to score at 1.62. I’d rather take the result: Sturm have scored against nobody in Europe since the summer, and Marseille have the forwards to win this by two. Marseille to win at 2.05 is the pick.
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