- 1 Dallas Stars vs New York Islanders: ten Dallas games, none with more than five goals, against the league’s third-best defence
- 2 Dallas Stars: 22 shots allowed a game and a 91.7% penalty kill
- 3 New York Islanders: a top-four penalty kill and Horvat’s five goals
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Dallas Stars vs New York Islanders
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Dallas Stars vs New York Islanders: ten Dallas games, none with more than five goals, against the league’s third-best defence 
None of Dallas’s 10 games this season has finished with six goals or more. The Stars allow 1.60 goals a game, the fewest in the NHL, and score 2.50, which ranks 27th.
Their opponent on Sunday plays the same kind of hockey. The Islanders allow 2.20 goals a game, third-fewest in the league, and their penalty kill is fourth at 88.2%. Only three of their 10 games have gone over 5.5.
Dallas comes in on a four-game winning streak at 6-3-1, the latest a 3-2 overtime win over Winnipeg on Thursday. New York is 5-3-2 and lost in overtime to Los Angeles on the same night.
Puck drop is 6:00pm ET on Sunday 25 October at American Airlines Center. The Stars are 1.50 on the moneyline and the Islanders 2.64, and the total is 5.5, with the Under at 1.87 and the Over at 1.95.
The prices on the total tell me the market has noticed the trend but hasn’t fully priced it. A line of 5.5 still needs both of these defences to give up three goals each, or one of them to give up four.
I’d play the total rather than the side. Picking a winner between two teams this tight in their own end is harder than picking the shape of the game, and Dallas at 1.50 doesn’t leave much value for a team scoring 2.50 a night. The Islanders have been outshot in five of their 10 games and still taken six points from them.
Dallas Stars: 22 shots allowed a game and a 91.7% penalty kill 
Dallas allows 22.0 shots a game, the lowest figure in the league, and kills 91.7% of penalties, second-best. Jake Oettinger had three shutouts in his first seven starts this season.
The Stars score 2.50 goals a game on 26.7 shots, and their power play converts 16.0%, 24th in the league. Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz have five goals each, and Jason Robertson has three.
The record splits back up the defensive picture. Dallas is 5-0-0 when it scores three or more and 1-3-1 when it doesn’t, and the Stars are 2-2-0 in one-goal games.
David Perron, 38, could make his Stars debut after signing a one-year deal on 16 October. Radek Faksa left Thursday’s game in the third period but could also play, while Sam Steel is out after an injection on Friday.
Dallas has won five of eight games as a moneyline favourite and all three when priced at 1.50 or shorter. The Stars have also won both games in which they were outshot, and they’re 4-3-1 when they outshoot the opponent, so the results haven’t depended on dominating the puck.
Wyatt Johnston has only one goal in eight games, which goes a long way to explaining the 27th-ranked offence. If he stays quiet, the scoring load falls on Rantanen, Hintz and Robertson against a team that doesn’t give much up.
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New York Islanders: a top-four penalty kill and Horvat’s five goals 
The Islanders score 2.90 goals a game, 19th in the league, and allow 2.20. They take 26.7 shots a game, identical to Dallas, and give up 25.5, seventh-fewest.
Bo Horvat leads them with five goals in 10 games, and his price to score tonight is 3.30. Matthew Schaefer has been the main source of assists from the blue line, with eight going into Thursday’s game, five of them in his previous five.
The penalty kill at 88.2% is the reason this pick rests on both teams. New York’s power play scores at 20.0%, 19th, against a Dallas kill at 91.7%, so the special teams matchup is unlikely to open the game up.
Thursday’s overtime loss to Los Angeles was the latest of their close games. The Islanders are 2-1-1 in one-goal games and 0-1-1 when they score only once.
New York has been an underdog seven times this season and won twice. It hasn’t been priced longer than 2.64 in any of those games, which is where it sits tonight.
The trip to Dallas comes after a home game on Thursday, so the Islanders have had Friday and Saturday to travel and reset, and Dallas also last played on Thursday. They’re 3-2-1 in games where they score exactly one power-play goal, and they’re unlikely to get many chances against a Dallas team that kills almost everything.
Probable lineup Dallas Stars: Not announced at time of publication (projected goalie: Jake Oettinger)
Probable lineup New York Islanders: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Dallas Stars vs New York Islanders
Our prediction: Under 5.5 goals (1.87)
I’m taking the Under. Dallas hasn’t had a game go over 5.5 all season, the Stars and Islanders rank first and third in goals allowed, and both penalty kills are in the top four.
The risk is a 3-3 game heading to overtime, or an empty-net goal turning 3-2 into 4-2. Totals include overtime, and Dallas needed an extra period to beat Winnipeg on Thursday. Even so, the Stars have scored two or fewer in five of their 10 games and the Islanders in four, and a 3-2 regulation finish still lands the bet.
Perron’s debut and Faksa’s return add depth to Dallas, not firepower. I’d expect this one to be settled by a goal either way, with five or fewer in total.
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