- 1 South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks: two losing sides, one league-worst defence
- 2 South East Melbourne Phoenix Analysis
- 3 Illawarra Hawks Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks: two losing sides, one league-worst defence 
South East Melbourne Phoenix host the Illawarra Hawks on Wednesday 11 November, with tip-off at 9h30 Paris time. The Hawks arrive with the worst defensive number in the NBL, conceding 103.8 points per game.
Both clubs come off a defeat, which gives this midweek date more weight than the 4-7 and 4-9 records suggest. The Phoenix sit eighth on the ladder, while Illawarra hold tenth place.
The Phoenix lost 110-99 at Sydney on Sunday after a 38-point opening quarter that they could not sustain. Illawarra went down 106-78 at Adelaide on Saturday, a heavy result that erased the good feeling of two road wins.
The two clubs have already met once this season. On 4 October the Phoenix won 113-96, with Nathan Sobey scoring 24 points and adding six rebounds and six assists.
Illawarra have changed since that night, with road wins at Perth (105-98) and Cairns (107-95) inside a single week. The Adelaide result, though, shows how quickly that improvement can disappear.
The reading for this game starts with defence, because neither side has defended consistently in recent outings. The team that controls its own end for more quarters will likely control the result.
Both clubs play again on Saturday 14 November, with the Phoenix visiting Melbourne United and the Hawks travelling to Perth. That makes Wednesday the one game in the week where each side can focus on a single opponent.
The Phoenix sit four games behind the 8-3 leaders, so the margin for error is shrinking. Illawarra are five games back, and another defeat would drop the Hawks to 4-10.
South East Melbourne Phoenix Analysis 
South East Melbourne are 4-7 and average 97.1 points per game while conceding 95.7. That +1.4 differential is the best among the four teams at the bottom of the ladder.
The number describes a team whose scoring is sound and whose results have been undone by lapses. Two defeats in a row, both against sides sitting 8-3, fit that pattern.
The 98-89 loss to Tasmania came after the Phoenix fell 22 points behind and then staged a late comeback, with coach Josh King criticising the effort across four quarters. Against Sydney the pattern repeated: 38 points in the first quarter, then only 13 in the second.
Sobey scored 33 points with six rebounds in the Sydney loss, and D’Shawn Schwartz scored 27 against Tasmania the game before. The scoring load is shared between a guard and a wing, which is a useful shape against a leaky defence.
Before those two defeats the Phoenix had strung together consecutive convincing victories. That run shows the ceiling of this group when the intensity holds for 40 minutes.
The decisive point is the turnaround. Three days after a game in Sydney, the Phoenix face the team ranked last for points allowed, and that matchup suits a scorer like Sobey.
The Phoenix scored 113 against Illawarra on 4 October, including 36 points in the second quarter. That scoring burst is the type this matchup can produce again.
Adelaide sit only a game and a half ahead of the Phoenix in the standings. Two wins would take the Phoenix to 6-7 and close that gap.
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Illawarra Hawks Analysis 
Illawarra are 4-9, scoring 95.5 points per game and allowing 103.8. The -8.3 differential is the worst in the league, and the ladder position of tenth follows from it.
Recent results hide an upswing. The Hawks beat Perth 105-98 and Cairns 107-95 on consecutive road trips, then lost 106-78 in Adelaide.
In the Cairns win Makur Maker scored 24 points with nine rebounds, and Tyler Harvey and Kelan Martin added 19 each. The Hawks shot 60% from the field and held Cairns to 13 points in the final quarter.
Against Perth the Hawks won the rebounding battle 45-31, with Martin scoring 23 points and Maker 21. Those are the two nights that show what this roster can do when effort and shot-making line up.
The Adelaide game was the other extreme. Illawarra scored 78 points, and Harvey’s 19 was the best individual number on the team.
The decisive point is the road. All three recent games were away from Wollongong, so the Hawks have shown they can win on the road, yet a defence conceding 103.8 per game leaves almost no margin for a cold shooting night.
In the 4 October loss at the Phoenix the Hawks scored 96 points, with Doyle contributing 14 points, 11 assists and three steals. Playmaking is not the problem for this team, and defence is.
Illawarra sit half a game behind ninth-placed New Zealand. A road win in Melbourne would lift the Hawks to 5-9, ahead of New Zealand’s record on winning percentage.
Probable lineup South East Melbourne Phoenix: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Illawarra Hawks: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBL Prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks
Our prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix win
The Phoenix already beat Illawarra by 17 points on 4 October, and the Hawks still defend worse than any team in the competition. That is the strongest single fact in this preview.
Sobey and Schwartz should find space against a defence conceding 103.8 points per game. The differential gap is 9.7 points per game in the Phoenix’s favour (+1.4 against -8.3).
Illawarra’s two road wins deserve respect, and so does Maker’s form. One good week does not outweigh a season-long defensive record, and the 106-78 loss in Adelaide is the most recent evidence.
We back the Phoenix to win at home.
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