- 1 Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne United: the league’s longest winning run visits a home side short of home wins
- 2 Adelaide 36ers Analysis
- 3 Melbourne United Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne United: the league’s longest winning run visits a home side short of home wins 
The Adelaide 36ers host Melbourne United on Thursday 12 November, with tip-off at 9h30 Paris time. United arrive on a four-game winning streak, the longest active run in the NBL.
Melbourne are 7-5 and third on the ladder, while Adelaide are 6-6 and fifth. Only one game separates them in the standings.
The two clubs met on 7 October in Adelaide, and United won 96-91 behind 24 points from Chris Anthony. Rakocevic scored 33 points with 14 rebounds for the 36ers in defeat.
Adelaide come in after a 106-78 win over Illawarra on Saturday. Melbourne beat Brisbane 120-92 on the same night.
Both teams have five days between games, so rest does not favour either side. The contest will be decided by form, and form has leaned toward the visitors.
The question is whether Adelaide’s home record can match its numbers. Home wins have been hard to find for the 36ers this season, and the pressure sits on coach Trevor Gleeson’s side.
United play twice in three days, with Adelaide on Thursday and a derby against South East Melbourne on Saturday 14 November. The short week adds a rotation question for the visitors.
A 36ers win would move them to 7-6, level with Cairns. A United win would take the visitors to 8-5 and keep them close to the top two.
Adelaide 36ers Analysis 
Adelaide average 92.3 points per game and allow 92.4, a differential of -0.1 that matches the 6-6 record almost exactly. The 36ers are a balanced team without a clear edge at either end.
That balance makes Saturday’s 28-point win over Illawarra stand out. The result was out of character, and one game is a thin base for a pick.
Zach Cheatham posted 21 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in that game, a triple-double. It shows that Adelaide have more than one creator on the floor.
Bryce Cotton scored 27 points with nine assists in the 96-89 loss to Brisbane on 1 November. He remains the offensive anchor, and the scoring runs through him when games tighten.
Home wins have been difficult to come by for the 36ers this season. That puts extra weight on a fixture against a team that already beat them once.
The decisive point is Rakocevic. His 33 points against United in October show that Adelaide’s clearest route to a win is through size inside.
The 36ers scored 36 points in the third quarter alone against Illawarra. That one period made the game, and it showed how quickly Adelaide can turn a tight contest.
Adelaide lost 88-72 to New Zealand at home on 4 October, scoring just 15 points in each of the last two quarters. The offence can stall, and that matters against a team as organised as Melbourne.
Adelaide’s differential of -0.1 is the fifth best in the league, behind only Sydney, Melbourne, Tasmania and South East Melbourne. That places the 36ers above several teams with better records on paper.
Adelaide are level with Brisbane on 6-6, so a loss would likely cost the 36ers a ladder spot.
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Melbourne United Analysis 
Melbourne are 7-5 and average 98.4 points per game while allowing 90.9. The +7.5 differential is second only to Sydney’s +9.9.
That number backs up the current four-game winning run. It is a record built on both ends of the floor.
United beat Brisbane 120-92 on Saturday, scoring 37 points in the fourth quarter. Anthony led the way with 32 points and six assists.
The risk is availability, because Chris Goulding has been dealing with a calf injury. Scoring has been less consistent when he is limited.
United have also struggled to reproduce the dominance of earlier seasons, particularly at John Cain Arena, where they have lost several games. A road game suits the current streak better than a home game would.
The decisive point is defence. United allow 90.9 points per game, which sits below the 92.3 that Adelaide score, and that gap favours the visitors.
United’s 120 points against Brisbane included 33 in the second quarter and 29 in the first. The team scores in bursts, and the defence holds the margin.
In the 7 October win in Adelaide, United led 31-21 after one quarter and held on despite a 32-point fourth quarter from the 36ers. The visitors know how to protect a lead in this building.
Melbourne’s streak is W4 and Adelaide’s is W1, which tells the story of momentum. The visitors have the longer run, and the home side has the shorter memory of success.
Third place against fifth place makes this a ladder game as much as a form game. Both clubs know a win separates them further.
Probable lineup Adelaide 36ers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Melbourne United: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBL Prediction: Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne United
Our prediction: Melbourne United win
United won 96-91 in Adelaide on 7 October, and nothing in their form since suggests a step back. They have won four in a row with a +7.5 differential.
The gap between the two differentials is 7.6 points per game (+7.5 against -0.1). Adelaide’s 28-point win over Illawarra stands out, but one result does not close that gap.
Goulding’s calf is the one factor that could change the picture, and Cotton and Rakocevic can keep the 36ers close. Over 40 minutes, the stronger defence should prevail.
We back Melbourne United to win on the road.
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