- 1 Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers: no Ullmark, and a Rangers team that can’t win on the road
- 2 Ottawa Senators: the 30th-ranked power play and the most penalty minutes in the league
- 3 New York Rangers: Garand at .915 and the NHL’s fourth-best defense without Shesterkin
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
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Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers: no Ullmark, and a Rangers team that can’t win on the road 
The New York Rangers are 6-0 at Madison Square Garden and 1-4-1 everywhere else. That split is the first thing to understand about Saturday’s trip to Ottawa, because a 7-4-1 record and 15 points look a lot healthier than the road numbers behind them.
The second thing is who won’t be in the Ottawa net. Linus Ullmark was 7-1-0 with a 1.33 goals-against average before the Senators placed him on injured reserve with a lower-body strain. Samuel Ersson is expected to start, and his goals-against average sits at 4.59, with Jonas Johansson recalled as cover.
Ottawa is 7-4-0 with 14 points, one behind the Rangers, and the last two days explain the mood. The Senators beat Florida 5-1 on Wednesday, then lost 6-2 at home to San Jose on Thursday on the second night of a back-to-back. Against Eastern Conference opponents Ottawa is 6-2-0, while New York is 4-4-1.
New York also played Thursday, losing 5-4 in Toronto when Troy Stecher scored in the final minute. Both teams have had a day off since, so neither side carries a rest edge into Canadian Tire Centre, and both arrive on a one-game losing streak.
Puck drop is 7pm ET on Saturday 24 October. Ottawa won the last meeting 2-1 on March 23, 2026, and the market has the Senators at 1.87 with the Rangers at 2.00.
Ottawa Senators: the 30th-ranked power play and the most penalty minutes in the league 
Ottawa’s power play converts 12.2% of its chances, 30th in the NHL. Against a Rangers penalty kill working at 91.7%, tied for second, that’s the area where the Senators are least likely to find goals.
Ottawa also takes 12.5 penalty minutes per game, the most in the league, with Nick Cousins alone on 28, and its own penalty kill stops only 78% of chances, 20th. A team that spends that long shorthanded with that kill is handing the opponent extra chances every night.
Tim Stützle drives the attack with 7 goals and 8 assists, 15 points in 11 games. Behind him the scoring thins out: Ottawa averages 2.64 goals per game, 24th in the league, on 25.6 shots, also 24th.
Defensively the Senators allow 2.73 goals per game, eighth in the NHL, and 25.7 shots against, but much of that was built with Ullmark in goal and his 1.33 goals-against average, and Ersson hasn’t come close to those numbers.
Thomas Chabot is also absent, with an undisclosed injury expected to keep him out for one to two weeks. Ottawa is 4-2-0 at home this season and 6-4-0 over its last 10, and it has lost its most recent game, the 6-2 defeat to San Jose that followed the win over Florida.
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New York Rangers: Garand at .915 and the NHL’s fourth-best defense without Shesterkin 
Igor Shesterkin is out for the season with a lower-body injury, and Joonas Korpisalo is expected to miss about four more weeks. The Rangers have kept winning anyway, because Dylan Garand has given them a 4-3-1 record, a 2.31 goals-against average, a .915 save percentage and a shutout.
New York allows 2.42 goals per game, fourth in the league. The structure in front of Garand matters as much as the goalie: the Rangers win 53.6% of their faceoffs, fourth, and give up 26.5 shots a night.
The Rangers’ offense depends on finishing. They average 24.3 shots per game, 28th, but shoot 12.7%, seventh, and score 3.08 goals a game. Alexis Lafrenière leads the team with 8 goals and 14 points, and Adam Fox has 14 assists without a goal.
The Rangers’ power play runs at 20%, tied for 19th. Against an Ottawa team that takes more penalties than anyone in the league, even an ordinary power play should get chances, and New York’s own discipline is better, with Will Cuylle leading the team on 20 penalty minutes.
Eeli Tolvanen is day-to-day for personal reasons and Joseph Veleno is out with a lower-body injury. Over their last 10 games the Rangers are 6-3-1, and the 1-4-1 road record is the reason this price sits at 2.00 instead of lower.
Probable lineup Ottawa Senators: Samuel Ersson in goal (not confirmed); Stützle leading the forwards. Ullmark, Chabot out. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup New York Rangers: Dylan Garand in goal; Lafrenière up front; Fox on defense. Shesterkin, Korpisalo, Veleno out; Tolvanen day-to-day. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers
Our prediction: New York Rangers to win (2.00)
I’m taking the Rangers at 2.00, and I’d want a bigger price before considering Ottawa without its starting goalie. The goaltending matchup has flipped since Ullmark went on injured reserve: Garand at 2.31 and .915 against Ersson at 4.59, in front of a Rangers team that allows the fourth-fewest goals in the league.
Ottawa’s power play ranks 30th and runs into a 91.7% penalty kill, while the Senators’ 12.5 penalty minutes a game give New York more chances than its 20% unit usually gets. The Rangers also win 53.6% of their faceoffs to Ottawa’s 52.8%, so the visitors shouldn’t be chasing the puck off the draw.
The Rangers’ 1-4-1 road record is the strongest point against this pick. But Ottawa scores only 2.64 goals per game, it just conceded six at home, and at even money the visitors are the better side.
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