- 1 San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings: a 3-0 sweep last season, a 29-point preseason win, and a Kings defence leaking 124.5
- 2 San Antonio Spurs: Wembanyama’s 1-of-13 opener is behind him, and the guards are scoring
- 3 Sacramento Kings: Sabonis averaging 18.5 rebounds, with no healthy center behind him
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings: a 3-0 sweep last season, a 29-point preseason win, and a Kings defence leaking 124.5 
San Antonio beat Sacramento 126-97 at Frost Bank Center on 16 October. It was a preseason game, but it followed a 3-0 regular-season sweep in 2025-26 in which the Spurs won by 13, 17 and 28 points.
The two teams have started this season from very different places. The Spurs reached the NBA Finals in June, losing to the Knicks after a 62-20 regular season, and they’re 1-2 after a short summer. The Kings went 22-60, lost all five preseason games under Doug Christie, and have opened 0-2.
San Antonio’s start has been slower than the roster suggests. Oklahoma City led them 59-33 at half-time on opening night and won 116-104, Houston won 114-110 in the second game, and only a 30-17 fourth quarter in Dallas on Saturday avoided the franchise’s first 0-3 start since 2008-09.
Tip-off is 8:00pm ET on Tuesday 27 October in San Antonio. Sacramento host Memphis on Sunday night and then travel. The Spurs, for their part, have a trip to Utah on Wednesday, so this is the first half of a back-to-back, which can affect how long the starters stay on the floor if the game gets away from the Kings early.
No regular spread had been posted at the time of writing. I’d expect a double-digit number, and I think San Antonio can cover one, mainly because Sacramento’s defence has given up 121 and 128 in two games while missing two of its three centers.
San Antonio Spurs: Wembanyama’s 1-of-13 opener is behind him, and the guards are scoring 
Victor Wembanyama made one of 13 shots against Oklahoma City, the worst shooting night of his career, though he still finished with 12 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks. Since then he’s scored 25 against Houston and 23 with seven rebounds and four blocks in Dallas, which is closer to the player who anchored last season’s run to the Finals.
The guards have been more consistent than he has. Stephon Castle scored 24 on opening night and 19 in Dallas, Dylan Harper has scored 18, 20 and 22 in his three games, and De’Aaron Fox has added 14, 19 and 19. Fox and Keldon Johnson were both questionable before the Houston game with wrist and mouth problems, and both played on Saturday.
Two summer additions haven’t played yet. Tobias Harris, signed on a two-year deal in early July, has a left calf problem and hasn’t made his debut, and first-round pick Jayden Quaintance is still recovering from knee surgery. Both were inactive in Dallas.
The Houston defeat showed where the Spurs can still be got at. They shot 32% from three and turned it over 15 times, and they’ve scored only about 112 points a game across their three outings, well short of what a team with this much backcourt talent should produce.
Against Sacramento that hasn’t mattered recently. San Antonio won 123-110 and 139-122 at home last season, then 132-104 in Sacramento in March, and they went 24-16 against the spread at home in 2025-26.
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Sacramento Kings: Sabonis averaging 18.5 rebounds, with no healthy center behind him 
Domantas Sabonis is carrying the Kings in a way that can’t last. He had 14 points, 18 rebounds and eight assists in the 121-96 loss to the Clippers, then 27 points, 19 rebounds and 10 assists against Portland, and he’s averaging 20.5, 18.5 and 9.0.
The reason he’s doing so much is the injury list. Maxime Raynaud is out with a right patella subluxation and Dylan Cardwell with a left calf injury, while Ben Simmons, signed in the summer as a backup, tore his right Achilles and won’t play this season. Against a frontcourt with Wembanyama in it, that leaves Sacramento with one big and very little cover when he sits.
The perimeter has scoring. Zach LaVine is averaging 25.0 points, and rookie Darius Acuff Jr., the seventh pick in June, followed a 12-point debut with 33 against Portland. Malik Monk missed the opener with a left ankle problem and was listed as probable for the Portland game.
What the Kings haven’t found is a way to protect a lead. They were 12 points up on Portland in the first quarter at Golden 1 Center and lost 128-120, and across two games they’re scoring 108.0 and allowing 124.5 on 44.3% shooting of their own.
This is also a roster in transition. DeMar DeRozan was waived and Russell Westbrook has retired, and Sacramento went 18-23 against the spread at home last season, without even the comfort of their own arena on Tuesday.
Probable lineup San Antonio Spurs: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama
Probable lineup Sacramento Kings: Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, De’Andre Hunter, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis (projected, not confirmed)
Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings
Our prediction: San Antonio Spurs with the handicap (spread not yet posted at time of writing)
The Spurs moneyline will be far too short to be worth backing, so the handicap is the way in. San Antonio have won the last four meetings by 13, 17, 28 and 29 points, preseason included, and nothing in Sacramento’s first two games suggests the gap has closed.
The counter-argument is San Antonio’s trip to Utah the following night. If the Spurs build a big lead, Mitch Johnson may sit his starters for much of the fourth quarter, and that’s how a favourite fails to cover a large number.
I’d still take San Antonio up to around minus 12. A Kings team allowing 124.5 points per game, with one fit center and a road trip to finish, is the side I’d expect to fall away first, and Sabonis can’t play 48 minutes.
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