- 1 Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor: Thomas Reis returns to Samsun with the in-form side
- 2 Samsunspor: losing to promoted sides and still waiting for a home win
- 3 Trabzonspor: 13 goals in six games and a new manager who knows the opposition
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor: Thomas Reis returns to Samsun with the in-form side 
Four straight defeats. One goal scored in that run, nine conceded. Samsunspor host Trabzonspor in Saturday’s Black Sea derby, kick-off 15:00 Paris time, sitting in the bottom three with four points from six games.
Across the pitch, the story runs the other way. Trabzonspor appointed Thomas Reis after a 1-0 defeat at Konyaspor, and his first league game in charge ended Trabzonspor 4-0 Galatasaray. That result lifted them to ten points and seventh place, seven spots above their hosts.
Then there’s the subplot. Reis used to manage Samsunspor. He took them into the Europa League for the first time in the club’s history before being dismissed earlier this year. Now he’s back at the Samsun Yeni 19 Mayis with the opposition.
The data paints a specific picture. Samsunspor have scored six and conceded 12 in six league games. Trabzonspor have scored 13 and conceded five. That’s a goal difference gap of 14 between two sides who’ve played the same number of matches.
The recent head-to-head leans the same way. Trabzonspor won 3-0 in Samsun in February, then drew 0-0 in the Turkish Cup in April before going through on penalties. That’s four meetings unbeaten for the visitors across all competitions.
Samsunspor: losing to promoted sides and still waiting for a home win 
Samsunspor actually started brightly. A 3-3 draw with Goztepe, then a 2-0 win at Caykur Rizespor. Two games, four points, nothing alarming.
Then it fell apart. A 2-0 home defeat to Fenerbahce was forgivable. A 1-0 loss at Kocaelispor was less so. The 5-1 thrashing at home by Corum was the low point, followed by a 1-0 defeat at Erzurumspor. Back-to-back losses to newly promoted teams. That makes for uncomfortable reading in any dressing room.
The home record is the real issue. Three games in Samsun, no wins: the Goztepe draw, the Fenerbahce defeat, the Corum hammering. Eight goals conceded in those three matches alone. Thorsten Fink hasn’t found a way to make this ground count.
The attack isn’t helping. Mohamed Bayo is still looking for his first league goal, and Emre Kilinc has carried most of the creative load. Fitness doubts over Afonso Sousa and Fatih Kaya, both with muscle injuries, plus Elayis Tavsan and Kouadou Assoumou, narrow Fink’s options further.
The wider form guide doesn’t soften the picture. Across their last ten matches in all competitions, Samsunspor have three wins, two draws and five defeats, averaging one goal per game. That’s not a side primed for a derby against a club scoring freely.
What does that leave them with? A side that needs a result badly, without the tools to force one. Not a great time to face an opponent in this mood.
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Trabzonspor: 13 goals in six games and a new manager who knows the opposition 
Trabzonspor’s league season has been stop-start. A 1-1 draw at Kasimpasa, a 2-1 win over Istanbul Basaksehir, a 2-1 defeat at Amed, a 5-0 win over Genclerbirligi, a 1-0 loss at Konyaspor. Win, lose, win, lose.
The Galatasaray game changed the tone. Mohamed Salah scored a hat-trick and Noah Saviolo added the fourth in a 4-0 win that announced Reis properly. When this attack clicks, it’s devastating: 11 goals in their last three home league games.
There’s a caveat, and it should be stated plainly. Away from home, Trabzonspor have lost at Amed and Konyaspor this season, and they were beaten 4-0 at Ferencvaros earlier in the campaign. They also lost 1-0 to Drogheda United during the break. Road form isn’t their strong suit yet.
The injury list is long. Ruslan Malinovskyi and Tim Jabol-Folcarelli are long-term absentees, Okay Yokuslu is a doubt with a muscle problem, and Stefan Savic, Ernest Muci, Aral Simsir, Umut Nayir and Onuralp Cevikkan all carry fitness concerns. Even so, Salah, Paul Onuachu, Saviolo and Franculino Dju give Reis plenty up front, with Fabinho anchoring midfield and Andre Onana in goal.
Three of Trabzonspor’s six league games have seen both sides score, and they’ve conceded just five in six. Pair that with 13 scored, and the balance is clearly there when the squad is close to full strength.
And Reis knows Samsunspor’s players better than almost anyone. That’s an edge you can’t put a number on, but it’s real.
Probable lineup Samsunspor: Kocuk; Mendes, Erakovic, Guarino, Tomasson; Yuksel, Watt; Kilinc, Onur, Jarju; Bayo
Probable lineup Trabzonspor: Onana; Pina, Savic, Nwaiwu, Eskihellac; Kabasakal, Fabinho; Salah, Muci, Saviolo; Onuachu
Free Football Prediction: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
Our prediction: Trabzonspor to win (odds around 2.06)
Samsunspor have lost four straight, scored once in that run and haven’t won at home all season. Trabzonspor have the better attack, the better defence by seven goals, and a manager who used to run this club’s dressing room and knows exactly where it’s weak.
The away form is the only real worry for Trabzonspor, and it’s why this isn’t priced shorter. But the defeats at Amed and Konyaspor came before Reis arrived, and the side that hammered Galatasaray is a different proposition.
Samsunspor’s home numbers seal it. Eight goals conceded in three home league games, no win, and a 5-1 defeat to a promoted side still fresh in the memory. Can they suddenly tighten up against Salah and Onuachu? Hard to see it.
At around 2.06, the away win is the pick. The numbers point one way, and the price gives enough margin to back them.
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