- 1 Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce: four draws in the last five league meetings
- 2 Samsunspor: ruthless without the ball
- 3 Fenerbahce: Greenwood and Muriqi are up to speed
- 4 Football Prediction Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce
- 5 Before anything else, a note on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce: four draws in the last five league meetings 
Samsunspor have not beaten Fenerbahce in six Super Lig meetings, losing two and drawing four. The detail matters: four stalemates in five clashes, and that tells you this is a matchup of styles that tends to cancel itself out.
Kick-off is on Sunday at 21:30 local time at the 19 Mayis Stadium in Samsun, with the Turkish league entering round three. Both sides come in on the back of a win.
Thorsten Fink opened the campaign with a wild 3-3 draw against Goztepe before going to Rizespor and winning 2-0. Four points from two games, without ever really controlling the ball.
Fenerbahce made a bumpier start, losing 2-1 at Genclerbirligi on opening day. They answered with a 4-2 win over Konyaspor, then beat Lyon 2-1 in their Champions League playoff.
That European qualification, sealed 3-2 on aggregate, has lifted the mood in the Istanbul camp. It has also left legs feeling heavy ahead of a trip of more than six hundred kilometres to the Black Sea.
If you widen the frame to all competitions, Samsunspor’s winless run against Fenerbahce stretches to eight matches, including the Super Cup and Turkish Cup. The backdrop is still ugly for the hosts, even with their recent knack of hanging in against this same opponent.
Fenerbahce are currently 8th in the Super Lig table, while Samsunspor are hovering near the danger zone in 17th.
A very early snapshot, and not much more: after only two matches, those positions are just arithmetic and tell us little about where this league will really settle.
The journey to Samsun adds a proper logistical headache for the Istanbul side, who were back from France in midweek. Three days separate the Lyon second leg from this Black Sea trip.
Samsunspor: ruthless without the ball 
Samsunspor have picked up four points from their first two matches, despite shipping three goals against Goztepe. That opening 3-3, with two leads thrown away and a stoppage-time equaliser from Celil Yuksel, was a clear warning sign at the back.
The trip to Rizespor was a very different story. Fink’s men won 2-0 against a side that managed 28 shots and 1.85 xG.
That game summed them up perfectly: win without the ball, win without much shooting, and strike when it counts. Joe Mendes and Fatih Kaya took the two clear chances.
That is exactly the sort of script expected on Sunday, because Fenerbahce are likely to dominate possession for long spells. Samsunspor have already shown they can live with that.
The attack will be without Marius Mouandilmadji, who is out with a thigh issue and due back in early September. Antoine Makoumbou is a doubt with a stomach problem, while Afonso Sousa, Elayis Tavsan, Igor Drapinski, Yunus Emre Cift and Kouadou Assoumou complete the absentee list.
Fatih Kaya should therefore lead the line after scoring at Rizespor, with Emre Kilinc and Saikouba Jarju out wide. Elliot Watt and Yuksel should anchor midfield if Makoumbou misses out.
The Black Sea club lean on a compact block that makes up for their chronic lack of possession. The 2-0 at Rizespor was the cleanest example of that.
Even so, the 3-3 with Goztepe is a reminder that this shape still has to survive 90 minutes. Throwing away two leads in one match is a luxury you do not get away with against a side of this level.
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Fenerbahce: Greenwood and Muriqi are up to speed 
Fenerbahce are unbeaten in their last three games in all competitions, with two wins and a draw. The opening-day defeat at Genclerbirligi already feels like old news.
The 4-2 win over Konyaspor was settled in a manic first half. Vedat Muriqi struck in the 7th minute, Ebrima Colley levelled, then Mason Greenwood put Fenerbahce back in front before setting up Marco Asensio for the third.
Greenwood then added his second straight after the break to complete his brace. Signed from Marseille in the 2026 summer window, the English winger has immediately become the most decisive player in the squad.
The same pairing made the difference in Lyon. Muriqi opened the scoring in the 24th minute and Greenwood teed up Archie Brown four minutes later, two moments that sealed qualification.
Romelu Lukaku, also signed this summer, has only made cameo appearances so far and is still finding his feet. Even so, Ismail Kartal has far more depth off the bench than the hosts.
The back four should be Milan Skriniar and Nathan Ake in front of Ederson, with a question mark over Caglar Soyuncu. Marco Asensio, Kerem Akturkoglu, Jayden Oosterwolde and Mert Gunok are expected to miss out.
The trip to Lyon cost energy, with travel to France coming just three days before this match. That sort of turnaround will weigh on the legs.
Kartal can at least call on a strong bench, with Romelu Lukaku available for the second half. That depth is exactly what Samsunspor do not have.
Expected Samsunspor XI: Kocuk ; Tomasson, Diabate, Borekovic, Mendes ; Kayan, Yuksel, Watt ; Kilinc, Kaya, Jarju
Expected Fenerbahce XI: Ederson ; Semedo, Skriniar, Ake, Brown ; Guendouzi, Kante ; Greenwood, Talisca, Nene ; Muriqi
Football Prediction Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce
Our prediction: Fenerbahce to win
Samsunspor have not beaten Fenerbahce in eight meetings across all competitions, and that run is no accident. The gap in individual quality is still huge in the final third.
Greenwood has scored twice and set up two more across the last two games, while Muriqi has scored in every outing. Samsunspor, by contrast, have lost Mouandilmadji and created just two clear chances in their last win.
The call is simple: Fenerbahce leave Samsun with all three points.
The only real concern is the visitors’ fixture load and the home side’s compact defensive shape. But that is not enough to overturn a trend that has held across eight straight meetings.
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