- 1 Salzburg vs AC Milan: a home side that keeps clean sheets against a Milan attack that’s gone quiet
- 2 Salzburg: three straight clean sheets in all competitions and a rested front line
- 3 AC Milan: unbeaten in Serie A, but just one win in five and no goals in Europe
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Salzburg vs AC Milan
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Salzburg vs AC Milan: a home side that keeps clean sheets against a Milan attack that’s gone quiet 
AC Milan arrive in Austria with zero Europa League points. That alone tells you how their European campaign has started. A 2-0 home defeat to Benfica on matchday one put Ruben Amorim’s side on the back foot, and Thursday’s trip to Salzburg, with kick-off at 18:45 Paris time, is already a game they can ill afford to lose.
Salzburg are in a far calmer place. They won 1-0 away at Levski Sofia on matchday one, with Haris Tabakovic scoring the only goal. Since then, they’ve added four points in the Austrian Bundesliga and kept two more clean sheets.
Milan’s domestic record looks solid at first glance. Six Serie A games, three wins, three draws, no defeats, fifth in the table. Look closer, though, and the momentum has faded. They’ve won just one of their last five matches in all competitions.
Sunday’s trip to Sassuolo summed it up. Adrien Rabiot put Milan ahead in the 63rd minute with a fierce strike from a tight angle. Five minutes later, Cas Odenthal equalised. A 1-1 draw, and more points dropped.
So what kind of game should we expect? Probably a cagey one. Salzburg’s defence has been the foundation of their start, and Milan’s attack hasn’t found a rhythm. One goal could decide it.
The prices reflect that uncertainty. The draw is around 4.00, and the under 2.5 goals market sits at 2.38, a generous price for a fixture with this profile.
Salzburg: three straight clean sheets in all competitions and a rested front line 
The win in Sofia set the tone. Salzburg didn’t dominate, but they defended well, took their chance and came home with three points. That’s been their way so far this autumn.
Kévin Boma has been one of the standouts at centre-back, and Bartosz Mazurek has been their best performer in Europe so far. Mazurek and Tabakovic both come in fully rested after sitting out the draw with Grazer AK, which is a real boost.
The goalkeeping situation is less settled. Christian Zawieschitzky is doubtful, so Christian Früchtl is expected to start. It’s not ideal to change keepers before a game of this size, but Früchtl has experience and the defence in front of him has been organised.
There are other absences. Enrique Aguilar, Justin Omoregie and Nikolas Veratschnig are all out. That’s three bodies gone from the squad, and Leandro Morgalla is expected to come into the back four.
Salzburg’s young side is energetic and aggressive in the tackle. With an average age around 24, they’ll press Milan high and try to force mistakes. Against a Milan midfield built around experience rather than legs, that’s a smart approach.
Their 3-0 home win over Sturm Graz in late September showed another side of this team. Salzburg were patient for 70 minutes, then scored three times in the final 20 as their opponents tired. Against an older Milan midfield, that late burst could be a factor again.
It’s a side that knows what it’s about. Don’t expect them to open up.
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AC Milan: unbeaten in Serie A, but just one win in five and no goals in Europe 
Zero goals scored in Europe so far. Milan were beaten 2-0 at San Siro by Benfica on matchday one, and they didn’t look like a side capable of breaking down organised opposition.
The defensive picture has got worse since Sunday. Matteo Gabbia picked up an injury against Sassuolo and misses out. Alexis Saelemaekers is also out. That leaves Amorim reshuffling his back three, with Koni De Winter and Fikayo Tomori expected to start alongside Strahinja Pavlović.
Luka Modrić is likely to come back into midfield. He brings control and calm, but at this stage of his career he won’t cover the ground Salzburg’s runners will ask him to. Rabiot’s energy next to him will be important.
Going forward, the names are big. Christian Pulisic, Samuel Chukwueze and Gonçalo Ramos should all feature. The problem has been turning possession into clear chances. Nothing against Benfica, one goal at Sassuolo: that tells you everything you need to know about where this attack is right now.
Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 is a system built on structure. When it works, Milan are hard to play through. When the attacking side doesn’t click, you get games like Sassuolo: long spells of control, not much to show for it.
The league numbers back that up. Three draws in six Serie A games isn’t a disaster, but it points to a side that struggles to put opponents away once it gets in front, exactly as it did at Sassuolo.
Milan need a result. That might make them more cautious, not less.
Probable lineup Salzburg: Früchtl; Morgalla, Drexler, Boma, Schmid; Barry, Mazurek; Vertessen, Kitano, Baidoo; Tabakovic
Probable lineup AC Milan: Maignan; De Winter, Tomori, Pavlović; Bartesaghi, Rabiot, Modrić, Chukwueze; Loftus-Cheek, Pulisic; Gonçalo Ramos
Free Europa League Prediction: Salzburg vs AC Milan
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (2.38)
Everything about this matchup points to a low-scoring game. Salzburg have kept three clean sheets in a row in all competitions, including that 1-0 win in Sofia. Milan haven’t scored in Europe and managed just one goal at Sassuolo.
Both coaches have reasons to be careful. Milan can’t afford a second European defeat, and Salzburg already have three points in the bag. Neither side will want to leave space at the back, and Milan’s defensive reshuffle makes Amorim even less likely to gamble.
The risk is a single error that opens the game up. Even then, a 2-0 or 1-1 still lands the bet. Under 2.5 goals at 2.38 is our pick.
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