- 1 Marseille vs Olympiacos: a struggling OM at home against a Greek side yet to lose on the road
- 2 Marseille: two home defeats in a row and two important absentees
- 3 Olympiacos: seven wins from nine and still unbeaten away from Piraeus
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Marseille vs Olympiacos
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Marseille vs Olympiacos: a struggling OM at home against a Greek side yet to lose on the road 
Marseille opened their season with a 4-0 win over Strasbourg. Then the wheels came off. Five defeats followed in six matches, including a 4-1 hammering at Beşiktaş on matchday one of the Europa League, before Saturday’s 2-0 win at Troyes finally gave Bruno Genesio’s side some breathing room.
Olympiacos arrive at the Velodrome on Thursday night in a very different frame of mind. They’ve won seven of their nine games in all competitions this season and haven’t lost away from home in four trips. Kick-off is at 21:00 Paris time.
The table reflects the gap. After one round of the league phase, Olympiacos sit 13th with three points from a 2-1 win over Jagiellonia. Marseille are 32nd with none, and a goal difference of minus three after that night in Istanbul.
The two clubs last met in the 2020 Champions League group stage. Marseille won 2-1 at home, Olympiacos won 1-0 in Piraeus. The Greek side have won only once in three visits to the Velodrome, but that history belongs to very different squads.
What matters more is where Marseille’s home form stands. They’ve lost their last two league games in front of their own fans: 3-2 to Paris FC and 2-1 to PSG. That’s not the Velodrome opponents used to fear.
Bookmakers still make Marseille slight favourites at around 2.20, with Olympiacos at 3.15 to 3.35 and the draw near 3.70. On form alone, that pricing looks generous to the hosts.
Marseille: two home defeats in a row and two important absentees 
Genesio will be without two important pieces. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg picked up a thigh injury during the international break and hasn’t recovered. Derek Cornelius has a hip problem that’s expected to keep him out until the winter break.
Losing Højbjerg hurts the most. He’s the player who usually sets the tempo in midfield and covers for the full-backs when they push on. Without him, Himad Abdelli and Nouhoum Kamissoko will carry a heavy load against an Olympiacos midfield that likes to keep the ball.
The Troyes win was a relief, and nothing more. A 2-0 away victory doesn’t erase a run that included defeats to Monaco, Paris FC, Rennes, Beşiktaş and PSG. The defence has been the big worry: 12 goals conceded across that five-game losing streak. That record takes some explaining.
There’s quality going forward. Amine Gouiri leads the line, with Amine Harit, Angel Gomes and Igor Paixão behind him. On their day, that’s a front four capable of hurting anyone. The issue has been consistency, not talent.
The opening night shows what this group can do. Marseille swept Strasbourg aside 4-0 at the Velodrome on 21 August, and for a few days it looked like a title-chasing season was taking shape. Seven weeks later, that performance feels a long way off.
Is this the week it clicks at home? Maybe. But with Angers to come on Sunday and two first-choice players missing, the cushion for error is thin.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Olympiacos: seven wins from nine and still unbeaten away from Piraeus 
Three straight wins without conceding more than once. Olympiacos beat Jagiellonia 2-1 in the Europa League, then won 1-0 at Levadiakos and 1-0 at home against Panathinaikos on Sunday. That’s a team that’s learned how to win tight games.
The one blemish came in the league, a 1-0 home defeat to OFI Crete in mid-September. Since then, they’ve barely put a foot wrong. Credit where it’s due: this side defends as a unit and rarely gives away cheap chances.
Remo Freuler, who joined on a free transfer from Bologna in August, has added experience to the midfield alongside Gustavo Puerta. Up front, Jota Silva has been the main threat, with two goals in the Greek Super League so far. Konstantinos Fortounis lines up in the number ten role behind Marius Mouandilmadji.
There are absences. Ayoub El Kaabi and Yusuf Yazıcı are both reported to be sidelined, which takes away two attacking options from the bench and the starting XI alike. That’s a real loss in a game that could be decided by a single moment.
Still, Olympiacos have shown they can win without being spectacular. Their last six games have produced an average of just over two goals per match, and they’ve conceded under a goal per game on average. Against a nervy Marseille defence, they don’t need much.
The only other dropped points came in a 1-1 draw at Volos in early September. Olympiacos responded by beating the same opponents 3-2 in the cup a few days later. That’s a squad that reacts well to setbacks.
The road record says plenty. Four away trips, no defeats.
Probable lineup Marseille: De Lange; Bezahaf, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Emerson; Kamissoko, Abdelli; Gomes, Harit, Paixão; Gouiri
Probable lineup Olympiacos: Ortega; Saliakas, Retsos, Pirola, Tiknizyan; Freuler, Puerta; Jota Silva, Fortounis, Chiquinho; Mouandilmadji
Free Europa League Prediction: Marseille vs Olympiacos
Our prediction: Olympiacos or draw, double chance (1.67)
The case is built on form. Olympiacos have won seven of nine and haven’t lost on the road. Marseille have won two of their seven competitive games this season and lost their last two at home. Bookmakers make OM the favourites, but the evidence points the other way.
The absences tip it further. Without Højbjerg, Marseille lose their midfield anchor against a side that’s comfortable controlling the tempo. Olympiacos have tightened up at the back and know how to see out a 1-0.
A Marseille win is possible if Gouiri and Paixão have a big night, but we don’t think it’s the likeliest outcome. Olympiacos or draw at 1.67 is our pick.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses, that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Marseille and Olympiacos on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply