- 1 Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund: no goals in two games for Kovac’s side, four clean sheets in five for the hosts
- 2 Sabah: Champions League debutants with six home clean sheets in eight
- 3 Borussia Dortmund: second in the Bundesliga, but no goals since the 85th minute against Bremen
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund: no goals in two games for Kovac’s side, four clean sheets in five for the hosts 
Konstantinos Karetsas came on at the Alte Försterei on Saturday in the 62nd minute and was hobbling five minutes later after twisting his ankle. There’s no diagnosis yet, but he’s expected to miss Tuesday’s trip to Baku, and he joins Giannis Konstantelias, Emre Can and Justin Lerma on a Dortmund absence list that has been growing all month.
The injury matters because of what came before it. Dortmund drew 0-0 at Union Berlin, and before that they lost 1-0 at Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League, so Niko Kovac’s side have now gone two games without scoring and three without winning in all competitions. They remain second in the Bundesliga, level on points with Bayern, but the attack has stalled at exactly the wrong moment.
Sabah reached this stage as Azerbaijani champions. The club, who ended Qarabag’s run at the top of the domestic game last season, are Champions League debutants. They lost 4-0 at Old Trafford on matchday one and then beat Slavia Prague 2-0 last Tuesday for the first win in the club’s history at this level.
That leaves both sides on three points. Dortmund are 18th in the league phase with goals for and against of 3-3, Sabah 22nd at 2-4. It’s the first competitive meeting between the clubs, and it will be played at the Baku Olympic Stadium, kick-off 17:45 UK time, with temperatures expected above 20 degrees.
Dortmund also face a long flight east and a short recovery from Saturday’s game in Berlin. With Karetsas out as well, Kovac’s options in the attacking midfield positions are thinner than at any point this season.
The prices make Dortmund clear favourites, between 1.25 and 1.34 depending on the bookmaker. I’d expect them to win, so the more useful question is how many goals a game between a side that has stopped scoring and a side that has stopped conceding is likely to produce.
Sabah: Champions League debutants with six home clean sheets in eight 
Valdas Dambrauskas has built a side that defends well before it does anything else. Sabah have kept clean sheets in six of their last eight home games and in four of their last five matches overall, and the heaviest defeat of their season came at Old Trafford, where Cunha, Bruno Fernandes, Sesko and Lisandro Martinez all scored.
Against Slavia, Kaheem Parris scored four minutes after half-time from a Lepinjica pass, Joy-Lance Mickels added the second two minutes from time, and goalkeeper Stas Pokatilov was named player of the match. Slavia’s winless run in the Champions League stretched to 21 games that night.
Domestic form has carried on in the same direction. Sabah won 4-0 at Qabala on Saturday, with Khaybulaev scoring just before half-time, Isayev twice in the second half and Mickels once, and they’re now top of the Azerbaijani league with 19 points from seven rounds. A 0-0 at Neftchi on 9 October is the only game in that run they haven’t won.
Mickels has ten goals in 17 appearances this season and leads the line on his own, with Veljko Simic, who has six goals, behind him and Rakhmonaliev, who has created nine chances, setting the tempo from deeper. Khayal Aliyev, a forward, is out with a ruptured tendon.
Before the Slavia game Sabah had also come through qualifying against Aarhus and Hapoel Be’er Sheva, and the Slavia win came at the Baku Olympic Stadium, the same ground they’ll use on Tuesday. All four of their league-phase home games are being played there.
Sabah do average 1.9 expected goals conceded per game in the competition so far, a figure dragged up by the four conceded in Manchester. Against Slavia, Pokatilov still had to earn his clean sheet, and Dortmund should create more than Slavia did.
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Borussia Dortmund: second in the Bundesliga, but no goals since the 85th minute against Bremen 
Dortmund’s last goal came from Nico Schlotterbeck in the 85th minute against Werder Bremen on 9 October. Svensson had opened the scoring on 80 minutes, and Bremen still drew through Reis and Füllkrug, the first points Dortmund had dropped after four straight league wins.
Since then there have been 180 minutes without a goal. Fredrik Sjovold scored just after half-time to give Bodø/Glimt a 1-0 win at Aspmyra, and Saturday’s game at Union was a goalless draw. Four of Dortmund’s last five matches have finished under 2.5 goals.
Dortmund have still conceded only four goals in six Bundesliga matches, won 1-0 at Stuttgart in September and 3-0 at home to Paderborn, and they haven’t lost a league game yet. Their expected goals against in the Champions League sits at 1.1 per game.
Serhou Guirassy carries most of the scoring burden, with four goals in nine appearances. Two of those came in the 3-2 win over Villarreal on matchday one, an 80th-minute finish and an 85th-minute penalty, and he then put through his own net in stoppage time to make the ending more nervous than it needed to be.
Kovac is expected to set up in a 3-4-2-1 with Sabitzer and Nwaneri behind Guirassy, and Bellingham and Nmecha in midfield. Without Karetsas, Konstantelias and Can, there’s less invention between the lines than Kovac would like, and two blank games in a row reflect that.
A trip to Baku three days after a draw in Berlin is the sort of fixture where Dortmund will want control rather than spectacle. The 1-0 win at Stuttgart in September is the template Kovac will have in mind.
Probable lineup Sabah: Pokatilov; Zedadka, Solvet, McCarthy, Puchacz; Lepinjica, Rakhmonaliev; Parris, Du Queiroz, Simic; Mickels
Probable lineup Borussia Dortmund: Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Bensebaini; Svensson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Beier; Sabitzer, Nwaneri; Guirassy
Free Champions League Prediction: Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund
Our prediction: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80
Dortmund at 1.25 to 1.34 is too short to back, and the trends on both sides point towards a controlled game. Sabah have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches and six in their last eight at home. Dortmund haven’t scored in two games, four of their last five have gone under 2.5 goals, and they’ve conceded four times in six league matches.
The risk is that Dortmund click and run up a score the way Manchester United did at Old Trafford. That’s possible, but United were at home against a side making its Champions League debut, and Sabah have defended far better since. Dortmund, without Karetsas and with their attack stuck, are more likely to win by one or two.
A 2-0 or 2-1 Dortmund win looks the most likely outcome. Under 3.5 goals at 1.80 covers that and a narrower result, and it’s the pick.
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