- 1 Aston Villa vs Viking: 12th in the league, third in Europe, against a Norwegian side that scored three on Bayern
- 2 Aston Villa: 18 wins from 20 home games in Europe, and a back line under strain
- 3 Viking: level on points at the top in Norway, and goals in both Champions League games
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Aston Villa vs Viking
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Aston Villa vs Viking: 12th in the league, third in Europe, against a Norwegian side that scored three on Bayern 
Aston Villa are 12th in the Premier League with eight points from seven games and a negative goal difference. In the Champions League they’re third, with two wins from two and nine goals scored. Wednesday’s visit of Viking to Villa Park, kick-off 20:00 UK time, comes in the middle of a season where Unai Emery’s side have looked like two different teams depending on the competition.
In Europe, Villa won 3-2 at Club Brugge on matchday one and then beat Fenerbahce 6-0 last Wednesday, the biggest win in the club’s history in major European competition. They scored three first-half goals in both games, something only Paris Saint-Germain have also managed in this season’s league phase.
Villa won 1-0 at Newcastle on Saturday through a Manzambi header, Emery’s 100th Premier League win, and it was their fourth successive away league win. Newcastle had 16 shots that afternoon and put one on target.
Viking arrive with a point and plenty of goals. They lost 3-1 at Stuttgart in September, then drew 3-3 with Bayern Munich in Stavanger last Tuesday, scoring in the second minute, the 38th and the 90th. At home they’re locked in a title race with Bodø/Glimt: both sides have 56 points from 23 Eliteserien games, and Viking trail only on goal difference, by a single goal.
Viking’s joint head coaches, Bjarte Lunde Aarsheim and Morten Jensen, have named the same starting XI for four matches in a row, and the side has scored 59 league goals in 23 games from a 4-3-3.
Villa travel to Manchester City three days after this game, and rotation is expected, with Lindelof, Kamara, McGinn and Nicolas Jackson among those who could be rested. The bookmakers still have Villa at 1.25 to win, which makes the shape of the scoreline the more interesting market.
Aston Villa: 18 wins from 20 home games in Europe, and a back line under strain 
Villa have won 18 of their last 20 home matches in major European competition, and their current run of 11 straight home wins is the joint-longest active streak in the competition. Against Fenerbahce, Manzambi opened the scoring on 12 minutes, Jackson added two before half-time, and Barkley scored twice in the second half, one from the spot, before Abraham completed the 6-0.
Manzambi has become the player Emery builds around in the final third. He has three goals and two assists in four starts in all competitions, and his header at St James’ Park came from a João Gomes cross. He was substituted on 72 minutes after taking a kick, but Emery said it was “not something big” and he’s expected to be available.
Jackson has three Champions League goals, two against Fenerbahce and one at Brugge, where McGinn and Buendia also scored. Barkley has two goals and an assist in the competition.
The defence is where the numbers get thinner. Matteo Ruggeri is out for several weeks with a hamstring injury, Amadou Onana has a knee problem, Ian Maatsen is still recovering from an ankle injury and Modou Keba Cissé is also missing. Aaron Wan-Bissaka was reported to have a hamstring issue after Newcastle, and Taylor Harwood-Bellis isn’t registered for the Champions League.
Villa have kept clean sheets in their last two games, but before that they drew 2-2 at home to Brentford and conceded twice at Brugge, including a Tresoldi penalty. A rotated back four with Wan-Bissaka doubtful is a different proposition to the one that shut out Newcastle.
Emery’s 4-2-3-1 is likely to stay, with Barkley and Kamara or a replacement in the double pivot and Mbaye, Manzambi and McGinn behind Jackson. If the City game shapes his selection as expected, several of those names will start on the bench.
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Viking: level on points at the top in Norway, and goals in both Champions League games 
Viking were behind at half-time against Fredrikstad on Saturday. Simen Kvia-Egeskog had put them ahead on seven minutes, Fiabema and Wesseh turned it round before the break, and Peter Christiansen then scored twice in the 56th and 57th minutes to win it 3-2 and keep Viking a single goal behind Bodø/Glimt on goal difference.
Christiansen is the man Villa need to watch. He had 11 league goals by late September and has added at least three since, two on Saturday and one against Bayern, where he scored Viking’s second on 38 minutes. Zlatko Tripic, with six league goals, and Kvia-Egeskog, with eight in all competitions by late September, give Viking more than one source of goals.
The Bayern game showed how they play against stronger opposition. Gianni Stensness scored in the second minute, Christiansen added another before half-time, and after Bayern came back through a Harry Kane penalty and a Luis Diaz goal, Herman Haugen equalised in the 90th minute. Michael Olise was sent off for a second yellow card during the game.
Viking won 2-0 at Brann on 9 October, beat Lillestrøm 3-0 and put eight past Kristiansund in September, and reached the league phase by beating Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 at home after a 2-2 draw in Croatia.
In the league phase they’ve let in six goals in two matches, and their away record this season is two wins, three draws and two defeats with 11 scored and 11 conceded. Bærtelsen, Berisha, Bjørshol and D’Agostino are all unavailable.
Expect the same 4-3-3 that has started their last four matches, with Østbø in goal, Stensness and Falchener at centre-back, and Tripic, Botheim and Christiansen in attack.
Probable lineup Aston Villa: Suzuki; Wan-Bissaka, Pau Torres, Lindelof, Cash; Barkley, Kamara; Mbaye, Manzambi, McGinn; N. Jackson
Probable lineup Viking: Østbø; Haugen, Falchener, Stensness, Heggheim; Askildsen, Bell, Bjørdal; Tripic, Botheim, Christiansen
Free Champions League Prediction: Aston Villa vs Viking
Our prediction: Both teams to score @ 1.67
Villa should win this, and the 1.25 price says as much, but Viking have scored in both of their league-phase games, including three against Bayern, they’ve scored 59 times in 23 league matches, and Christiansen arrives having scored twice on Saturday.
The case against is Villa’s two straight clean sheets. But those came with a settled first-choice back line, and Wednesday’s will probably be rotated, with Ruggeri, Onana and Maatsen out, Wan-Bissaka doubtful and the City trip on Saturday shaping Emery’s choices. Before the clean sheets, Villa conceded twice at Brugge and twice at home to Brentford.
I expect a Villa win in the region of 3-1, with Jackson or Manzambi among the scorers and Viking finding a way through at least once. Both teams to score at 1.67 is the pick.
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