- 1 Romania vs Sweden: Hagi’s men face the leaders with their backs to the wall
- 2 Romania Analysis
- 3 Sweden Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Romania vs Sweden
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Romania vs Sweden: Hagi’s men face the leaders with their backs to the wall 
Twelve goals conceded in three games. That is Romania’s Nations League campaign in one number, and it explains why Monday night in Bucharest already looks like a survival test.
Romania host Sweden on Monday 5 October at the Arena Nationala, with kick-off at 20:45 Paris time (19:45 UK). This is matchday four of League B, Group 4, and the gap between the two sides is brutal: Sweden have seven points, Romania have none.
The reverse fixture in Solna finished 2-1 to Sweden in September. Since then, the Swedes have kept collecting points while Romania have fallen apart, culminating in a 6-0 hammering in Warsaw on Friday.
Graham Potter’s side know a win would put them in a commanding position for top spot and direct promotion to League A. Gheorghe Hagi’s team know that another defeat ends their hopes of finishing first and pushes them closer to the drop.
The head-to-head points one way. Sweden have beaten Romania in four of the last five meetings, scoring at least twice every time they won.
There is one twist. Sweden travel to Bucharest with a squad thinned out by injury and illness, while Romania will be without both of their first-choice centre-backs. Two weakened sides, but one of them is weakened in exactly the wrong place.
Romania Analysis 
Three games, three defeats, three goals scored and twelve conceded. Romania sit bottom of the group with a goal difference of minus nine, and the trend is getting worse, not better.
The loss in Sweden was respectable enough. The 4-2 home defeat to Bosnia-Herzegovina hurt more, and Friday’s 6-0 collapse against Poland was the heaviest Romanian defeat since a 7-1 loss to Switzerland in 1967.
That night turned in the 22nd minute, when Radu Dragusin was sent off for a last-man foul. Robert Lewandowski converted the penalty and went on to complete a hat-trick in a second half that brought five Polish goals.
Dragusin is now suspended, and Virgil Ghita also misses out through a one-match ban for accumulated bookings. Louis Munteanu (ankle) and Denis Dragus (knee) are also listed as absentees, which strips Hagi of options at both ends of the pitch.
Andrei Coubis, Andrei Burca, Bogdan Racovitan and Matei Ilie are the names in contention to form a makeshift central pairing. Ionut Radu is expected back in goal after Otto Hindrich conceded six in Warsaw.
The one argument for Romania is home form: they have won four of their last five games in front of their own fans, the Bosnia loss being the exception. The counterweight is heavy, with just one win in seven matches across 2026 and no clean sheet in their last eight.
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Sweden Analysis 
Sweden are on course for back-to-back promotions. They came up to League B at the start of this campaign and now lead Group 4 by two points after three matches.
The run started with that 2-1 win over Romania, continued with a 3-1 success against Poland and then produced a 1-1 draw in Zenica on Friday. Viktor Gyokeres put Sweden ahead just after the hour against Bosnia before Kerim Alajbegovic levelled late on.
That goal made Gyokeres the first player to score in six consecutive Nations League matches. He is fit, he is in form, and he is the single biggest reason Sweden arrive as favourites.
The weakness is at the back. Sweden have not kept a clean sheet in 13 matches since Potter took over in October last year, a run of five wins, four draws and four defeats.
The absentee list is long. Alexander Isak left the squad with a minor thigh problem, Emil Holm and Carl Starfelt are out with thigh injuries, and Yasin Ayari, Benjamin Nygren, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Elliot Stroud and Patrik Walemark all missed the Bosnia game through illness.
Potter has called up replacements, with Eric Smith and Victor Eriksson in contention at centre-back. Even depleted, Sweden have only failed to score once under their current coach, in the 3-0 World Cup round-of-32 defeat to France.
Probable lineup Romania: Radu; Ratiu, Coubis, Burca, Eissat; Olaru, M. Marin, Baluta, Stanciu; Man, Birligea
Probable lineup Sweden: Johansson; Gudmundsson, Lindelof, E. Smith, Dahl; Bernhardsson, Larsson, Karlstrom, Nanasi; Gyokeres, Zeneli
Free Football Prediction: Romania vs Sweden
Our prediction: Sweden to win @ 1.80
Romania have shipped twelve goals in three Nations League games and now lose both Dragusin and Ghita from the heart of their defence. Sweden bring the competition’s form striker in Gyokeres, who has scored in six straight Nations League matches, and a record of four wins in the last five meetings with Romania.
Sweden’s absences are real, but most of them are in midfield and on the flanks, and Potter’s team has kept finding the net regardless. A side that has failed to score only once in 13 games under its coach is facing a defence that has conceded in eight straight matches.
Expect Romania to score, because Sweden rarely keep clean sheets. Expect Sweden to score more, and back the away win at 1.80.
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