- 1 RB Leipzig vs Manchester City: Haaland’s record against Leipzig meets a home defence still unbeaten
- 2 RB Leipzig: no goals conceded at home, five defeats on the road
- 3 Manchester City: top of the Premier League but conceding in five straight games
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: RB Leipzig vs Manchester City
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City: Haaland’s record against Leipzig meets a home defence still unbeaten 
Erling Haaland has scored 12 goals in eight games against RB Leipzig, for Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City, five of them in City’s 7-0 win in 2023. He was rested for the Carabao Cup tie with Brighton in midweek and is due back in the starting side.
Leipzig host City at the Red Bull Arena on Wednesday 4 November, with kick-off at 20:00 UK time. City have won four of the six previous meetings and Leipzig one, a 2-1 at home in 2021/22, with the other drawn.
This season’s numbers split cleanly between home and away. Leipzig haven’t conceded a goal at home in any competition, and they’ve lost all five of their away games in the Bundesliga and Europe, including 6-1 at Bayern Munich on 17 October and 4-1 at Real Madrid four days later.
That leaves their European record at one win from three: a 4-1 defeat at Como, a 1-0 home win over PSV and the loss in Madrid. Three points has them 30th in the league-phase table. City are tenth on six points after a 2-0 win at Porto, a 4-2 home defeat by PSG and a 5-1 win over AEK Athens.
Leipzig have lost their last five UEFA matches against English clubs. Their coach, Martin Demichelis, played 15 Champions League games for City, and the last two meetings, both in 2023/24, ended 3-1 and 3-2 to City.
RB Leipzig: no goals conceded at home, five defeats on the road 
Leipzig went into Saturday’s trip to Schalke sixth in the Bundesliga with 12 points from seven matches: four wins, three defeats and no draws. Most of their plus-nine goal difference was built at home, including a 4-0 win over Elversberg on 24 October.
Demichelis has absences to work around. Ouedraogo (shoulder), Esteve (knock), Nkunku (adductor) and Guiu (hamstring) were all missing for the Schalke game, and Nicolas Seiwald was sent off for two yellow cards in the 2-1 DFB-Pokal win at Rot-Weiss Essen on 27 October.
Nkunku’s injury takes out the club’s top league scorer, with four goals. Nusa and Romulo have three each, Gomis scored the goal in Madrid, and Christoph Baumgartner came off the bench to score twice in Essen.
The two biggest away games of the season so far, at Bayern and at Real Madrid, cost Leipzig ten goals. The home win over PSV on 13 October, by contrast, was a 1-0 in which they gave nothing away.
That home record is Leipzig’s strongest asset on Wednesday. It hasn’t yet been tested by a side with City’s attacking numbers, and City won 3-1 on their last visit, on 4 October 2023.
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Manchester City: top of the Premier League but conceding in five straight games 
City lead the Premier League on 21 points from eight games, seven wins and one defeat, with 20 goals scored and nine conceded. They hosted Brighton on Saturday before this trip.
That one defeat came at Aston Villa on 24 October, 2-1, and ended a seven-game league winning run. Haaland scored at Villa Park. Before it, City beat Ipswich 3-2 and AEK 5-1, with Phil Foden scoring a hat-trick against the Greek side.
Enzo Maresca’s team have conceded in each of their last five matches. The 4-2 home defeat by PSG on 14 October was the heaviest of those, and the 2-2 against Brighton in the Carabao Cup, won 4-3 on penalties, followed the same pattern.
Antoine Semenyo is out with a leg injury until mid-December. Nunes and Ndiaye are fit, and Gianluigi Donnarumma, Ruben Dias and Haaland return after the midweek rotation. Rayan Cherki has four goals this season and scored the winning penalty in the Brighton shootout.
Josko Gvardiol, a former Leipzig player, is set to start at left-back. Haaland has ten goals in City’s last ten league matches.
Probable lineup RB Leipzig: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Manchester City: Donnarumma; Khusanov, Guehi, Dias, Gvardiol; Anderson, Fernandez; Ndiaye, Cherki, Doku; Haaland
Free Champions League Prediction: RB Leipzig vs Manchester City
Our prediction: Manchester City to win (odds around 1.58)
We’re backing City. Leipzig’s home defence is the only real argument for an upset, and PSV, the one strong side to come to Leipzig this season, scored nothing but also created little. City bring Haaland’s record against this opponent, Foden’s hat-trick form and Cherki’s four goals.
City’s own goals-against column stops us going further than the win. A side that has conceded in five straight games can give Leipzig a goal, and both teams to score at 1.45 is a fair alternative. But Leipzig have lost five in a row against English clubs, are missing their top scorer, and conceded ten in their two biggest away games.
City to win is priced around 1.58, and that’s our selection for Wednesday night.
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