- 1 Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon: first against second, level on 14 points
- 2 Paris Saint-Germain: four straight league wins, one clean sheet in seven
- 3 Lyon: best defence in the top two, with a Thursday night in Germany first
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon: first against second, level on 14 points 
Lyon won 2-1 at the Parc des Princes on 19 April. It’s their only win in the last six league meetings with Paris Saint-Germain, and every one of those six games had goals at both ends.
Sunday’s game kicks off at 19:45 UK time with the two clubs locked together at the top of Ligue 1. Both have 14 points from seven matches, both have won four, drawn two and lost one. Lyon sit first because their goal difference is +8, three better than PSG’s.
Where the two sides differ is at the back. PSG have scored 14 and conceded nine, with one clean sheet all season. Lyon have scored 13, conceded five and shut out three opponents already.
Lyon also have the harder week of the two. They play at Hoffenheim in the Europa League on Thursday night, three days before they walk out in Paris. PSG’s European game this week was at home to Barcelona on Tuesday, which leaves them an extra 48 hours.
The last six meetings produced 25 goals between them, an average above four per game. PSG won 3-2 at Lyon in November 2025 and 3-2 there again in February 2025. I don’t see a side that keeps clean sheets at the Parc against this opponent.
Over 41 league meetings PSG have won 25, Lyon nine, with seven draws. The recent run is closer than that record: PSG beat Lyon 3-1 at home in December 2024 and 4-1 in April 2024, and both of their wins in Lyon since then finished 3-2.
Paris Saint-Germain: four straight league wins, one clean sheet in seven 
PSG have won their last four league games. They won 1-0 at Brest on 13 September, 2-1 at Marseille a week later, beat Le Mans 3-1 at home on 10 October and won 3-1 at Strasbourg last Saturday.
Only the Brest game ended without them conceding. Marseille, Le Mans and Strasbourg each scored once, and the one league defeat came on 4 September, when Monaco won 2-1 at the Parc des Princes.
In Europe the goals have flowed both ways. They beat Slovan Bratislava 6-1 on 9 September and won 4-2 at Manchester City on 14 October. They conceded in both of those games as well.
The front three in the last starting XI was Mathis Akliouche, Ferran Torres and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, with João Neves, Fernandez and Beraldo behind them. Ousmane Dembélé, who has averaged 0.44 goals per 90 minutes across his career, gives the manager another forward to bring in.
Matvei Safonov has faced 29 shots on target in the league so far. Ilia Zabarnyi and Lucas Hernandez have started together in central defence, and that pairing has kept one clean sheet in seven league games.
Warren Zaïre-Emery has started at right-back and Lucas Digne on the left. Two full-backs who like to get forward leave space behind them, and PSG have conceded in three of their last four league games.
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Lyon: best defence in the top two, with a Thursday night in Germany first 
Lyon beat Nice 2-1 at home last Sunday. Three days earlier they had beaten Crystal Palace 3-2 in the Europa League, so they’ve already handled one Thursday-Sunday turnaround this month.
Their only league defeat came on 9 October, 2-1 at Lens. Before that they had beaten Rennes 4-0, drawn 0-0 at Paris FC, beaten Auxerre 3-1, drawn 1-1 with Le Havre and opened the season with a 2-0 win at Toulouse.
On the road they’ve averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded in recent league games. Those away figures explain why they’re top, and they also show that Lyon rarely go a whole away game without scoring.
Pavel Šulc, Tanner Tessmann and Moussa Niakhaté were all in the last starting XI. Corentin Tolisso has averaged 0.24 goals per 90 minutes over his career, a useful return from midfield in a game where Lyon will spend long spells without the ball.
Fatigue is the bigger concern for Lyon this week. The trip to Hoffenheim on Thursday comes first, and Lyon have already lost one big European night at home this season, 2-1 to Fenerbahce in the Champions League on 26 August.
Lyon went to Paris in April and won 2-1, so the group knows the ground. Five goals conceded in seven league games is the best record in the top two, and Lyon’s back line has kept clean sheets against Toulouse, Paris FC and Rennes this season.
Probable lineup Paris Saint-Germain: Safonov; Zaïre-Emery, Zabarnyi, Hernandez, Digne; Fernandez, Beraldo, Neves; Akliouche, Torres, Kvaratskhelia
Probable lineup Lyon: Descamps, Athekame, Niakhaté, Mata, Boudache, Tessmann, Bidstrup, Šulc, Nartey, Duranville, Vinícius (4-2-3-1)
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon
Our prediction: Both teams to score at 1.57
PSG at around 1.43 is too short for a side that’s kept one clean sheet in seven league games and plays a team level on points. Both teams scored in each of the last six meetings, and those games produced 25 goals.
PSG have scored in each of their last five league games. Lyon have scored in six of seven, and they won at the Parc only six months ago.
Lyon’s three clean sheets are the case against, and the Thursday trip to Germany could take something out of them. I’d still back both sides to find the net, with PSG’s back four conceding in three of their last four league games. Over 2.5 goals at around 1.35 doesn’t offer enough of a price. Both teams to score at 1.57 is the bet that fits what these two have done to each other for two and a half years.
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