- 1 Monaco vs Lille: identical records and six low-scoring meetings in a row
- 2 Monaco: unbeaten at home this season, beaten at Lorient last Sunday
- 3 Lille: four wins from the last six against Monaco, two goals conceded in the process
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Monaco vs Lille
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Monaco vs Lille: identical records and six low-scoring meetings in a row 
Monaco and Lille have played seven league games each and have exactly the same record: four wins, two draws, one defeat and 14 points. Lille are fourth only because their goal difference of +5 is one better than Monaco’s.
The Stade Louis II hosts this one on Sunday at 14:00 UK time, and the winner moves level with or past the top two depending on what happens at the Parc des Princes that evening. Lyon and PSG are both on 14 points as well, so four clubs are separated by goal difference alone.
Monaco have already beaten one of the other three clubs on 14 points, winning 2-1 at PSG on 4 September. Lille’s one league defeat came at Nice, 2-1 on 20 September, and Arsenal beat them 3-0 in the Champions League on 13 October.
The head-to-head favours the visitors from the north. Lille have won four of the last six meetings, Monaco one, and the other finished 0-0. Lille won both league games last season by a single goal, 1-0 at home in August 2025 and 1-0 at the Stade Louis II on 10 May.
None of those six games produced more than two goals. The average across them is 1.2 goals per match, with 0.6 coming in the first half. The 0-0 in October 2024 is the only one of the six that finished level.
Both teams arrive off a week in Europe. Monaco host Freiburg in the Conference League on Thursday, while Lille were at home to Galatasaray in the Champions League on Wednesday. Neither side won in the league last weekend either: Monaco lost at Lorient and Lille drew with Brest.
I expect a tight game, and the market hasn’t fully priced in how tight these two keep it against each other.
Monaco: unbeaten at home this season, beaten at Lorient last Sunday 
Monaco lost 1-0 at Lorient on 18 October. It ended a five-game unbeaten run that included a 2-1 win at CSKA Sofia in the Conference League three days earlier and a 2-2 home draw with Toulouse on 10 October.
Their league record at the Stade Louis II is two wins and a draw from three games. Lens lost 2-1 there on 18 September, and the Toulouse draw is the only time a visitor has left with a point.
The best result of their season came away from home. On 4 September they won 2-1 at the Parc des Princes, which is still the only league defeat PSG have suffered this season.
The squad is short in a few places. Eric Dier, Stanis Idumbo-Muzambo and Paris Brunner are listed among the absentees, so a defender, a midfielder and a forward are missing before Thursday’s game against Freiburg.
Hradecký is expected in goal behind a back four of Vanderson, Sané, Salisu and Nazinho. Camara and Zakaria sit in midfield, with Minamino, Golovin and Fati behind Abline.
Monaco have scored in five of their last six games in all competitions, with the blank coming at Lorient. Against Lille they’ve scored twice in the last six meetings combined.
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Lille: four wins from the last six against Monaco, two goals conceded in the process 
Lille drew 1-1 with Brest at home last Saturday. Four days earlier they had lost 3-0 at Arsenal in the Champions League, and the draw left them with two wins from their last four league games.
The more recent of those wins came on 10 October, 1-0 against Le Havre. Before it they lost 2-1 at Nice on 20 September, and they had beaten Troyes 2-0 on 13 September.
Lille’s last six in all competitions average 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, and the 3-0 at the Emirates accounts for a large part of that conceded figure.
Against Monaco the back line has been close to perfect. In the last six meetings Lille have conceded twice: once in the 2-1 home win in February 2025 and once in the 1-0 defeat at the Stade Louis II in April 2024.
The absentee list includes Hamza Igamane, Ayase Ueda and Tiago Santos. That’s two forwards and a defender missing, and Giroud is the likeliest to lead the line.
Away from home Lille average 1.23 goals per game, a modest figure that fits the way they’ve approached this fixture. Their 1-0 win at the Stade Louis II on 10 May was their first league win there since 2009.
Probable lineup Monaco: Hradecký; Vanderson, Sané, Salisu, Nazinho; Camara, Zakaria; Minamino, Golovin, Fati; Abline
Probable lineup Lille: Not announced at time of publication
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Monaco vs Lille
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals at 2.10
All six of the last meetings between these clubs finished under 2.5 goals. The scores were 0-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-0, 1-0 and 2-0, and the average was 1.2 goals per game.
Neither side has been prolific lately: Monaco scored nothing at Lorient and Lille managed one goal against Brest at home. Lille are without two strikers in Igamane and Ueda. Monaco have been more open at home, with the 2-2 against Toulouse, but they’ve scored two goals in six games against Lille.
Over 2.5 is priced at 1.97, so the market treats the total as roughly a coin flip, and I think it’s wrong about that. Six meetings in a row with two goals or fewer is a long enough sample for me, and under 2.5 at 2.10 is the bet.
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