Five matches. Thats all it takes to tell.
Thirty-four Premier League seasons. Sixteen newly promoted sides have picked up at least eight points from their first five games. None of them went straight back down. Not one.
Sunderland had eight last year. Leeds had seven. Both finished comfortably clear of trouble, seventh and 14th. Burnley, though, were sent straight back to the Championship after one season. And dont forget the two campaigns before that, when all six promoted clubs dropped straight through the trapdoor.
Below seven points, it gets messy fast. Six points from five games and the relegation rate jumps to 71.4%. Three or fewer and it rockets to 88%. Just three clubs have survived after starting on three points: West Bromwich Albion in 2004-05, Southampton in 2012-13, Crystal Palace in 2013-14. Three outliers in three decades. Hardly a blueprint.
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Coventry have been handed the worst run
This season’s three promoted clubs are Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City. And the fixture computer has not exactly been kind.
Coventry face opponents with an average Opta Power Rating of 94.5 across the first five matches, the toughest start in the division, level with Sunderland. Away trips to Arsenal and Manchester City will test them brutally. Hull do not have it much easier, with Manchester United, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle all on the menu.
Ipswich have come out far better. They have the ninth-easiest start, with Sunderland at home on opening day, then trips to Crystal Palace and Everton. Enough to target seven points.
And no, staying up will not require 40 points. Over the past 22 completed seasons, the team finishing 18th has reached 39 points only twice: Birmingham in 2010-11 and West Ham last season. The average for 18th is 33.8. Thirty-eight points would have been enough in each of the previous 14 seasons.
Thirty points at home, job done
No team has ever gone down in a 38-game Premier League season after taking 30 points at home. Sunderland managed 33 last season, Leeds 32. Burnley: 13, bottom of the home table.
That is the good news for two of the three newcomers. Coventry and Ipswich had the two best home defences in the Championship last season, collecting 55 and 50 points respectively. Hull managed only 38, which left them eighth in the division.
At the back, the real line is defensive. Of the 68 promoted teams who conceded 68 goals or fewer, 24.2% were relegated. Once that figure goes past 69, the drop rate blows up to 93.9%, with 31 clubs from 33 going straight back down. Ipswich allowed 1.0 xG per game in the Championship, the second-best mark in the division. Coventry posted 1.1. Hull were at 1.7, second-bottom, with only Sheffield Wednesday worse.
Up front, each side has a leading man: Haji Wright scored 17 for Coventry, Oli McBurnie 17 for Hull, Jack Clarke 16 for Ipswich. McBurnie has 62 goals in 165 Championship matches, but only 13 in 96 Premier League appearances. That gap says plenty.
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