Leicester get a first taste of League One
Leicester City kick off their League One campaign away to Notts County on Saturday. The club were English champions ten years ago. They were still in the Premier League little more than a year ago. Two straight relegations later, the Foxes are back in the third tier for the first time since 2008-09.
Russell Martin is now in charge at the King Power Stadium. The former Southampton boss, who also had a short stint at Rangers, has plenty on his plate. He needs to revive his own career as much as the club’s.
Opta’s supercomputer, meanwhile, is not exactly buying the hype. Leicester are projected to win the title in only 8.1% of the 10,000 simulations and secure automatic promotion in 15.5% of cases. That leaves them fourth in the title betting. Small mercy: a third straight relegation shows up in just 4.9% of the projections.
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Luton and Plymouth ahead, Stockport lurking
Two clubs stand out, and there is barely anything to split them. Luton Town and Plymouth Argyle both have a 14.0% chance of winning the title and a 24.9% chance of automatic promotion. Plymouth edge it by the finest of margins on the decimal.
Luton come off a strong finish under Jack Wilshere: eight wins and two draws from their final 10 matches left them one point shy of the play-offs. Plymouth, managed by Tom Cleverley, finished eighth, a point behind the Hatters.
Stockport County follow with an 18.8% chance of automatic promotion and 9.9% of taking the title. The club lost the play-off final 4-1 to Bolton at Wembley, then lost manager Dave Challinor. Jimmy McNulty, a former Stockport player, has stepped in after guiding Rochdale back into the EFL.
Oxford United reach 12.4% for automatic promotion despite a transfer embargo linked to EFL financial rules. The other Championship drop-outs, Sheffield Wednesday, are down at 7.3%. Behind them, Wycombe (12.2%), Huddersfield (12.0%) and Mansfield (11.9%) are still in the mix.
A division wide open to anyone
The most revealing number fits on one line. Across 10,000 simulations, every League One side won the title at least 12 times. And every club finished bottom at least 26 times. Half the division won the championship in at least 3% of scenarios.
At the bottom, AFC Wimbledon stand out with a 47.8% relegation risk. Peterborough United (31.4%) and Bromley (31.3%) are next. Newly promoted Bromley are getting their first ever crack at the third tier, with an Opta Power Ranking of 1,141st in the world.
Barnsley complete the danger group on 28.9%, a figure explained by the expected points model: the Tykes picked up around six points more than their performances suggested last season. Notts County (28.5%), Cambridge United (26.8%), Leyton Orient (25.4%) and MK Dons (25.0%) round out the eight clubs with better than a one-in-four chance of going down. The projections were updated on Wednesday, August 12.
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