- 1 Portsmouth vs Derby County: two bad starts collide at Fratton Park
- 2 Portsmouth are still searching for defensive balance
- 3 Derby County are clinging to a streak that suits them
- 4 Football Prediction Portsmouth vs Derby County
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Info that moves
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Portsmouth vs Derby County: two bad starts collide at Fratton Park 
Fifteenth in the Championship on three points, Portsmouth host a Derby County side sitting 21st and still waiting for their first win. The table already says plenty about the mood in both dressing rooms.
Kick-off is set for 7:45pm local time on Tuesday at Fratton Park. It is the first midweek outing of the season for both clubs.
Pompey have shipped 11 goals in four games in all competitions. That number explains better than the league table why John Mousinho is demanding defensive improvement first and foremost.
Derby have picked up just one point from their opening three league matches. Their last outing, a 3-0 defeat at Swansea, ended without a single shot on target.
Recent history, though, is firmly on the visitors’ side. The Rams are unbeaten in 12 league meetings with Portsmouth.
Mousinho’s side have not beaten Derby since a 2-1 EFL Cup win back in August 2015. In the league, you have to go all the way back to January 2008 and a 3-1 victory in the Premier League.
That gap between current form and historical weight makes the picture pretty clear. It also points the prediction towards something other than a simple pick for the winner.
Portsmouth are still searching for defensive balance 
One win in four competitive games. That’s Portsmouth’s record since August. The south coast club started with two 3-1 defeats, first against West Ham United in the EFL Cup and then against Queens Park Rangers in the league.
Their only win came at Lincoln, by the same 3-1 scoreline, only the other way round. That away victory against a newly promoted side remains the best performance John Mousinho’s team have produced so far.
On Saturday at Ashton Gate, Pompey went down 2-1 to Bristol City. Marko Milovanovic converted a penalty in the 95th minute, his first goal for the club arriving far too late to change anything.
11 goals conceded in four matches is the glaring flaw in this start to the campaign. The back line has kept just one clean sheet since August.
The injury list is making life harder for the staff, with Josef Bursik, Conor Ogilvie, Mark Kosznovszky, Keshi Anderson, Franco Umeh and Thomas Waddingham all out. Josh Murphy is expected to miss a second straight game after picking up an injury at Lincoln.
Losing their main wide threat hurts badly for a side that doesn’t create much. Portsmouth have scored five goals in three league matches, with three of them coming in a single game at Lincoln.
Ebou Adams and Marko Milovanovic are the two realistic options if Mousinho decides to tweak his XI. Against a side they have not beaten in league football for 18 years, Pompey will need every available body.
Portsmouth have scored only five goals in three league matches, including three in that single trip to Lincoln. Their work at Fratton Park still needs proving.
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Derby County are clinging to a streak that suits them 
One point from three league games and Derby County still haven’t found the answer. The Rams opened their season with an EFL Cup exit at Lincoln, losing 2-1 to a side from the division below.
The league campaign began in the same way, with a 2-1 loss to Charlton Athletic. The draw they clawed out at Cardiff City, after coming from behind twice, is their only point so far this season.
On Saturday, the trip to Swansea turned into a complete mess as they were beaten 3-0 without much fuss. John Eustace’s men failed to hit the target once and allowed 12 efforts at the other end.
Seven conceded and three scored in three league games, and the attacking output is the real problem. Derby have the second-worst goal difference in the division behind Burnley and Stoke.
But the record against Portsmouth tells a very different story. The Rams have not lost a league match at Fratton Park in 18 years.
Back in March, they won 1-0 on this ground thanks to an early strike from Sammie Szmodics after eight minutes. A second straight win at the same venue is well within reach.
Patrick Agyemang, Derry Murkin and former Portsmouth defender Matt Clarke are all missing. Carlton Morris is out for at least two weeks with a muscle injury, while Lewis Travis still needs to shake off the knock he picked up on Saturday.
Derby have not won a competitive match of any kind since the season began. Their one bright spot is that draw at Cardiff City after being behind twice.
Probable Portsmouth XI: Schmid ; Devlin, Arthur, Shaughnessy, Swanson ; Adams, Pack ; Kamara, Segecic, Kavuma-McQueen ; Milovanovic
Probable Derby County XI: Widell Zetterstrom ; Ward, Langas, Sanderson, Taylor ; Mowatt, Travis ; Clark, Szmodics, Blackett-Taylor ; Brewster
Football Prediction Portsmouth vs Derby County
Our pick: Derby County double chance or draw
Twelve straight league games unbeaten for Derby against Portsmouth, including a 1-0 win at Fratton Park in March. A run that long does not just vanish because one team has stumbled out of the blocks.
Portsmouth have conceded 11 goals in four matches and will also be without Josh Murphy for a second game in a row, their best source of threat out wide. Pompey’s attacking numbers tell a similar story: five goals in three league games, with three coming in one match.
We are taking the X2. Derby County should leave the south coast with at least a point in the bag.
The price on that market still looks decent given Derby’s place in the table. It pays for a streak that recent form from either side has done little to dent.
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