- 1 Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs: 21 offensive rebounds in Denver meets four Wembanyama blocks a night
- 2 Portland Trail Blazers: 5-1 without Morant or Sharpe, and a center taking over games
- 3 San Antonio Spurs: five straight wins and seven players in double figures on Monday
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs: 21 offensive rebounds in Denver meets four Wembanyama blocks a night 
The Blazers took 21 offensive rebounds at Ball Arena on Monday, nine of them from Donovan Clingan, and won 118-110 to end an eight-game losing streak in Denver. The Trail Blazers are 5-1, and they’ve done it without Ja Morant or Shaedon Sharpe.
San Antonio has won five in a row since an 0-2 start, and Victor Wembanyama averaged 28.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.0 blocks across that run. The Western Conference champions visit the Moda Center on Saturday 7 November, tip-off 10:00pm ET.
Both teams arrive on the second night of a back-to-back. Portland Trail Blazers play in Phoenix on Wednesday and at the Lakers on Friday, then flies home. San Antonio hosts Dallas on Wednesday, plays in Sacramento on Friday and makes the short hop north. Neither side gains anything from the schedule.
The Blazers’ perfect record is on the road. Its only defeat came at home, 124-103 to Memphis on 29 October, when the Grizzlies outscored the Trail Blazers 66-45 after halftime and Cameron Boozer had 18 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists. That was also the night Morant strained his hamstring.
Through Sunday, Portland was scoring 120.6 points a game, fourth in the NBA, and allowing 109.2, tenth. San Antonio’s numbers from the same date, 117.3 and 110.2, trail slightly, but they include the 0-2 start and not Monday’s 119-97 win over Utah. We’d weigh the last two weeks more heavily.
Portland Trail Blazers: 5-1 without Morant or Sharpe, and a center taking over games 
Clingan finished Monday’s win with 17 points, 18 rebounds, three assists and four blocks. The Blazers outrebounded Denver 53-37 and needed those extra possessions, because it trailed by 12 after one quarter and 87-85 going into the fourth before a 15-2 run settled the game.
Deni Avdija led the team with 25, including the late pull-up and a layup at the buzzer, and he’s averaging close to 23 a night. Damian Lillard added 18 and an and-one in that fourth-quarter run. Jrue Holiday’s corner three with three minutes left pushed the lead to nine.
The absences are long-term. Morant has a grade 2 hamstring strain and will be re-evaluated four weeks after 29 October. Sharpe had surgery on a torn right meniscus in August and is expected to miss most of the season. That leaves Lillard and Holiday carrying the backcourt on their own, and Saturday is their third game in four nights.
The free-throw line gave the Blazers another route in Salt Lake City on 31 October, where it attempted 41 and made 34 in a 112-90 win. The Trail Blazers also made 15.8 threes a game through the end of October, and their 136-129 win at the Lakers was closed out by a Lillard three with 43 seconds left.
Wembanyama changes the sums for this offense. Clingan’s offensive rebounding works when shots come off the rim near him, and few centers in the league can contest at the rim and still get back to the glass. Portland’s 124-83 opening-night win over Phoenix was built on a 56-39 rebounding edge, and it won’t get that margin here.
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San Antonio Spurs: five straight wins and seven players in double figures on Monday 
Wembanyama scored 12 on Monday, tying his season low, and San Antonio still beat Utah by 22. Dylan Harper led with 17, Stephon Castle had 16, Keldon Johnson 15 off the bench, Harrison Barnes 13, De’Aaron Fox 12 and Devin Vassell 11. The Spurs shot 60% from the field.
Two nights earlier the same offense ran through one player. Wembanyama had 43 points, seven rebounds, six blocks and four assists on 17-of-34 shooting in a 121-111 win over Minnesota, his 10th 40-point game in the regular season. Harper added 25 points and six assists, and Fox had 20.
Harper’s rise is the part of this run that matters most for Saturday. He scored 22 in the 122-106 win at Dallas on 24 October, the first victory of the season, and he’s given the Spurs a second creator when defenses load up on Wembanyama. With Morant and Sharpe out, Portland has fewer perimeter defenders to send at him.
San Antonio’s defense is also getting better. Utah scored 16 in the first quarter on Monday, a Jazz season low, and the Spurs held an opponent under 100 for the first time this season. They won fast-break points 26-9 and points in the paint 52-36.
The two defeats that opened the season came against teams with winning records: 116-104 at home to Oklahoma City and 114-110 to Houston, the second of them ended by an Amen Thompson block on Wembanyama. We’ve seen no injury listing for San Antonio’s rotation, though the Friday game in Sacramento should be checked.
Probable lineup Portland Trail Blazers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup San Antonio Spurs: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs
Our prediction: San Antonio Spurs to win (moneyline)
With the schedule level, we go with the team that has more ways to score. San Antonio beat Minnesota with 43 from Wembanyama and Utah with seven players in double figures, while the Blazers’ healthy backcourt is two veterans on their third game in four nights.
Portland’s record deserves respect, and Clingan’s 18 rebounds in Denver are the strongest argument against us. Its one home game against a team of this level was the 21-point loss to Memphis, though, and 5-1 includes wins over Phoenix, Utah and Sacramento.
Lines weren’t available when we wrote this, and we’d want 1.45 or longer. Wembanyama’s status after the Sacramento game is the one thing that would change the pick.
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