- 1 Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets: the 27th-ranked defense against a 7-1 team on two days’ rest
- 2 Phoenix Suns: 55-39 up at Chase Center, and still 1-4
- 3 Houston Rockets: 39% from three, and a rotation with Sengun and Smart back
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
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Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets: the 27th-ranked defense against a 7-1 team on two days’ rest 
Houston is 7-1 and has lost once all season, 116-111 in Dallas on 30 October, after Cooper Flagg scored 33, Kyrie Irving scored 35 and the Mavericks put up 40 in the fourth quarter. The Rockets answered by beating Oklahoma City at home and then Boston 109-93 on Monday night.
Phoenix has one win, 131-122 over Golden State on 24 October. Saturday’s game is in Arizona on 7 November, tip-off 9:00pm ET, and it’s a Suns team that has already lost by 41, 11, 7 and 3 before this week’s two other home games.
Scoring margin separates these teams by a wide distance. Through Sunday, Houston scored 120.7 points a game, third in the NBA, and allowed 108.3, seventh. Phoenix scored 112.0, 19th, and allowed 124.5, 27th.
The schedule adds to it. Phoenix hosts Portland on Wednesday and Orlando on Thursday, a back-to-back, and then has Friday off before Houston arrives, its third game in four nights. The Rockets play Minnesota at Toyota Center on Wednesday and fly in with two days’ rest.
We see one reason for caution. The Phoenix Suns led Golden State by 16 on the road on Monday and were in the game until the last five seconds, so this roster can score with a good team for long stretches. Holding that level for 48 minutes is what it hasn’t done.
Phoenix Suns: 55-39 up at Chase Center, and still 1-4 
Phoenix led Golden State 55-39 with 3:47 left in the second quarter on Monday. The Warriors cut into that lead with a 12-0 run before halftime and went on to win 116-113, with Stephen Curry finishing on 34. Devin Booker scored 26 with five assists and fouled out with 58 seconds left.
Booker’s month has swung from one extreme to the other. He scored 43 on 17-of-25 shooting against the Warriors on 24 October, a franchise record for a home opener, then had 3 points on 1-of-7 in Oklahoma City two nights later. He bounced back with 20 against Denver, and Monday’s 26 at least came with a role in a close game.
Miles Bridges, acquired from Charlotte in July, had 21 on Monday, and Dillon Brooks added 18 points, eight rebounds and four assists. Both picked up technical fouls in a game that also saw Draymond Green ejected. Brooks had already been thrown out of the 127-120 home loss to Denver on 30 October for a flagrant 2, so his discipline is a live issue for this team.
The defense remains the reason for the record. Phoenix gave up 124 to Portland on opening night, 125 to Oklahoma City, 127 to Denver and 116 to Golden State, and the league’s numbers had it allowing 126.3 points per 100 possessions going into November. Jamal Murray scored 39 on it in the Denver game.
The frontcourt is thin. Mark Williams is out after shoulder surgery in September, which has left center minutes to Khaman Maluach at 7.7 points and 7.3 rebounds a game, with Oso Ighodaro behind him. Against Alperen Sengun’s passing that’s a hard assignment for a young big.
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Houston Rockets: 39% from three, and a rotation with Sengun and Smart back 
Boston tied Houston 29-29 after one quarter on Monday. The Rockets led 57-50 at halftime and won by 16, with Sengun, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason scoring 12, 12 and 11 in the first half on a combined 14-of-18 shooting. Houston assisted on 17 of its 23 first-half baskets.
That game had Sengun back in the lineup and Marcus Smart on the bench, after both had missed time in October. The Rockets went 5-0 with their lineup changing from night to night, and Fred VanVleet scored 24 in a 132-100 win in Milwaukee while Sengun and Smart both sat. VanVleet missed all of last season with a torn ACL.
Ime Udoka’s scoring is spread across the roster. Sengun leads at 22.8 points a game and Kevin Durant, at 38, is at 22.0 while taking a smaller share of the offense than at any point in his career. Thompson was at 18.2 points and 8.0 rebounds through five games, and Jabari Smith Jr. at 16.2.
The shooting numbers stand out as well: 49.2% from the field and 39.0% from three through Sunday. Against a Phoenix Suns defense ranked 27th, that spread of scorers means Phoenix can’t send help to one player without leaving another open.
Two injuries need checking. Steven Adams has been out with a calf problem and Reed Sheppard with a back issue, both as of last week. Neither has stopped Houston so far, and no opponent scored more than 114 against it in the first five games.
Probable lineup Phoenix Suns: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Houston Rockets: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets
Our prediction: Houston Rockets to win by 7 points or more (handicap -6.5)
Houston has outscored opponents by more than 12 points a game and arrives on two days’ rest. Phoenix has the league’s 27th-ranked defense, will be on its third game in four nights, and has no healthy rim protector with experience against a center who passes like Sengun.
The Suns have shown they can lead good teams, and Booker has one 43-point game this season to go with Monday’s 26. That’s why we’d stop at 6.5: a home team with this much scoring won’t always lose by double figures, even when it can’t get stops.
No lines had been posted at the time of writing. We’d take the handicap at 1.45 or longer and would drop the pick if Sengun or Durant is ruled out on Saturday.
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