- 1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns: a 5-2 rematch, and a Steelers team just back from Europe
- 2 Pittsburgh Steelers: the fifth-best scoring defense in the league, and an offense ranked 25th
- 3 Cleveland Browns: 491 yards against Tennessee, and a point differential that doesn’t match the record
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns: a 5-2 rematch, and a Steelers team just back from Europe 
Cleveland beat Pittsburgh 27-24 in Week 4, and Aaron Rodgers needed 40 attempts to throw for 299 yards that afternoon. He completed 22 of them, his lowest completion rate of the season, and two of his passes ended up in Browns hands.
The rematch is at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday 1 November, kickoff 1:00pm ET on CBS. Both teams are 5-2, both are 5-2 against the spread, and the Over has landed in four of seven games for each of them. It’s hard to find two AFC North records that line up more neatly.
Pittsburgh started 2-2 and has won three straight since, the last of them a 16-10 win over New Orleans at the Stade de France last Sunday. Those three wins came by 12, 7 and 6 points, and the Steelers were 2.5-point favorites every time. This week the number has moved to 3.5.
The trip matters more than the scoreline, because teams playing the week after a game in Europe, without a bye in between, are 0-5 against the spread this season. The Over has cashed in four of the five games involving a team back from Europe, which is worth knowing with a total sitting at 38.5.
The market makes Pittsburgh a 1.56 favorite on the moneyline, with Cleveland at 2.50. I don’t think the gap between these rosters is anything like that wide. The Browns have already won this game once, and they arrive with a full week at home while the Steelers come off a transatlantic flight.
Pittsburgh Steelers: the fifth-best scoring defense in the league, and an offense ranked 25th 
Pittsburgh allows 19.7 points a game, fifth-fewest in the NFL, and only 91.0 rushing yards a game. The defense has 11 takeaways, seven of them interceptions, and it held New Orleans to 18 rushing yards on 17 carries last week.
The pass defense was less convincing in that same game. The Saints completed 30 of 38 throws for 263 yards, a 78.9% rate, and only red-zone stops kept the score at 16-10. Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson threw for 308 yards against Tennessee last week, so that coverage will be tested again.
On offense, Rodgers was tidy against the Saints: 19 of 30, 212 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. Jaylen Warren did the heavy lifting with 101 yards on 18 carries, and the Steelers ran 30 times for 148 yards in total. D.K. Metcalf caught only two balls, though they went for 56 yards.
Over seven games the picture is flatter: Pittsburgh scores 21.9 points a game, 22nd in the league, and gains 323.7 yards a game, 20th. By EPA per play the offense sits 25th, two places above Cleveland, which says plenty about how this game is likely to look.
The Steelers also miss a lot of tackles: they rank 31st in the league in that category, one spot behind the Browns at 29th. Against a Cleveland rushing attack that put up 183 yards on 29 carries last week, that’s a weakness Pittsburgh can’t hide behind its points-allowed number.
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Cleveland Browns: 491 yards against Tennessee, and a point differential that doesn’t match the record 
Cleveland’s 27-24 win over the Titans last Sunday produced 491 yards of offense on 65 plays. Watson went 25 of 36 for 308 yards with one interception, KC Concepcion caught eight passes for 129 yards, and Quinshon Judkins ran for 96 yards on 17 carries.
That was the Browns’ second straight win after a Week 5 loss to the Jets on the road. They’ve now won five of seven, and yet their point differential is minus 13. For a 5-2 team, that’s tied for the fourth-worst figure since 2000, which tells me Cleveland has won plenty of close ones and lost its defeats heavily, starting with a 34-10 opener.
The biggest winning margin of their season is four points, a 23-19 win at Tampa Bay. A team that lives in one-score games is a natural fit for a 3.5-point underdog spot, and the Week 4 meeting with Pittsburgh was decided by three.
Cleveland’s defense is solid without standing out, allowing 20.9 points a game (12th), 318.1 total yards (12th) and 201.7 passing yards (11th). Opponents complete 60.3% of their throws against the Browns, nearly twenty points lower than New Orleans managed against Pittsburgh last week.
Three Browns are listed as questionable: Mike Hall Jr., Tytus Howard and Myles Harden. Watson, by contrast, comes in healthy, and his performance against Pittsburgh in Week 4 was his second-best game of the season by EPA. He has already found the openings in this defense once.
Probable lineup Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Jaylen Warren, WR D.K. Metcalf (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup Cleveland Browns: QB Deshaun Watson, RB Quinshon Judkins, WR KC Concepcion (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
Our prediction: Cleveland Browns +3.5 (1.93)
I’d take the points with Cleveland. These teams are separated by three points on the scoreboard from Week 4, by two places in offensive EPA, and by nothing at all in their records. A 38.5 total points to a game settled by a field goal either way, and that makes the hook on 3.5 worth having.
The Europe angle tips it further, since every team that played across the Atlantic and came straight back into a game without a bye has failed to cover this season, five out of five. Pittsburgh fits that profile exactly, and it’s laying more points than in any of its last three wins.
The risk is Pittsburgh’s run defense, which can shut down Judkins and leave Watson throwing into seven-interception coverage. I’m still on Cleveland: the Browns have scored 27 against this defense already, they’ve won their last two, and they get a field goal and a half to work with.
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