Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries – WNBA Prediction – July 29, 2026

Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries : a playable total despite two different styles

Phoenix are looking to back up the confidence boost they showed before the break, while the Valkyries want to keep pushing themselves into the league’s top tier. The WNBA restart brings a tasty matchup between two teams heading into the second half of the season with very different goals.

On paper, the profiles point in opposite directions. Phoenix like to play at a quicker pace, while Golden State lean heavily on their defence. Even so, there are enough signs that this one can still get over a fairly manageable points line.

Phoenix finding their scoring touch again

The Phoenix Mercury finished the first half with back-to-back wins, a welcome response after a trickier spell. They haven’t been perfectly consistent, but this team is still capable of producing proper offensive basketball when the shot is falling.

Phoenix are averaging more than 84 points this season and have edged above that mark across their last ten games. At home, the Mercury often look to crank up the tempo and put their perimeter players in the best possible spots.

The defence, though, is still a softer spot. The space they give up in transition and the problems they have protecting the paint help explain why Phoenix games regularly turn into high-scoring affairs.

Golden State keep rolling with confidence

The Valkyries have continued their excellent season with just one defeat in their last ten outings. That run is built first and foremost on a rock-solid defensive structure, which allows them to control plenty of games.

Their offensive output is slightly lower than Phoenix’s, but Golden State still have enough firepower to take advantage of the Mercury’s defensive cracks. Against a team that gives up points on a regular basis, the visitors should find some good looks.

Their team play and ball movement also help the Valkyries stay efficient, even when the pace drops for stretches.

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WNBA Prediction : Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries

Over 153.5 points in the game

This line looks very reachable given both teams’ recent trends. Phoenix are regularly involved in open games, with an attack capable of putting up more than 80 points while their defence often lets opponents have their say. Golden State bring a different profile, but that has not stopped them from contributing to games that clear this mark when the opposition forces a faster pace. Against the Mercury, the Valkyries should get plenty of chances at the offensive end.

The head-to-head data also points the same way. The 153.5-point line has been beaten in four of the last five meetings between the two franchises. The only game to finish below it stopped on 153 points, just one shy of today’s line. With Phoenix looking to push the tempo in front of their own fans and Golden State efficient enough to answer back, we expect this one to clear 153.5 points.

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