- 1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs Florida Panthers: a four-game skid at PPG Paints Arena, and Florida on the second night of a back-to-back
- 2 Pittsburgh Penguins: four straight losses and 3.70 goals allowed per game, 27th in the NHL
- 3 Florida Panthers: Brady Tkachuk has seven goals in ten games, and the shot numbers back up the record
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Florida Panthers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Florida Panthers: a four-game skid at PPG Paints Arena, and Florida on the second night of a back-to-back 
Pittsburgh Penguins has lost four games in a row. The Penguins opened the season with a 7-0 rout of Philadelphia and have gone 2-6-1 since, which leaves them at 3-6-1 going into Thursday’s home game against Florida, puck drop 7pm ET at PPG Paints Arena.
Florida comes in at 5-3-2, and on short rest. The Panthers played in Ottawa on Wednesday night, so this is the second half of a back-to-back with a flight in between.
The market can barely split them. Pittsburgh is a slight home favorite at around 1.87 on the moneyline, with Florida between 1.95 and 1.98. The total is 6.5 goals.
Both teams are trying to find their footing after very different summers. Pittsburgh kept its veteran core together for one more run, with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Erik Karlsson all in the last year of their contracts. Florida missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2018-19 and responded by trading for Brady Tkachuk and bringing Aleksander Barkov back from a knee injury that cost him the whole season.
We think the underlying numbers favor Florida by more than the price suggests. The Panthers allow 24.5 shots per game, fifth-fewest in the league, and 3.00 goals per game. Pittsburgh allows 27.8 shots and 3.70 goals, 27th in the NHL.
Wednesday’s game in Ottawa is the honest counterweight. We’ve accounted for it, and it’s the main reason we’d stop short of anything beyond the moneyline.
Pittsburgh Penguins: four straight losses and 3.70 goals allowed per game, 27th in the NHL 
The 7-0 opener was the high point. Nick Robertson scored twice in his Penguins debut against the Flyers, the team that had knocked Pittsburgh out of the playoffs in six games last spring.
The defensive problems showed up within a week. A 5-3 loss to Washington on 7 October left Pittsburgh at 2-2-0, and coach Dan Muse said afterwards he didn’t like the quality of chances his team gave up. Ten games in, the Penguins rank 27th in goals against.
Pittsburgh Penguins averages 3.20 goals per game, 13th in the league, and its power play converts at 23.33%, ninth. But the Penguins are 0-3-1 when they score exactly two and only 2-3-0 when they score three or more, so even decent offensive nights haven’t been enough.
Crosby has three goals in ten games, and Rickard Rakell has one. Bryan Rust, who has scored at least 20 goals in each of his last seven seasons, returned from an upper-body injury in early October. Crosby put up 74 points in 68 games last season despite a knee injury picked up at the Olympics.
Last season’s team was built on goals. Pittsburgh finished 41-25-16 with 98 points, scored 293 and allowed 268, and lost Game 6 against Philadelphia in overtime. Anthony Mantha, its top goal scorer with 33, left in the summer, with Robertson and Andrei Kuzmenko among the forwards brought in.
The betting record is the other red flag. Pittsburgh has been the moneyline favorite twice this season and lost both games. It’s 1-2-0 in one-goal games and 2-3-0 when it outshoots the opponent.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Florida Panthers: Brady Tkachuk has seven goals in ten games, and the shot numbers back up the record 
Brady Tkachuk leads Florida with seven goals in ten games since arriving from Ottawa in a June trade. Sam Reinhart has five and Sam Bennett three.
Barkov is back at center after a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee kept him out for all of last season. He played more than 20 minutes on opening night and centers a line with Tkachuk and Reinhart. Brad Marchand was expected to miss roughly the first month of the season after offseason surgery.
The goaltending changed hands over the summer. Sergei Bobrovsky left for Toronto, and Jacob Markstrom arrived from New Jersey to take the crease.
Florida controls play more than its record suggests. The Panthers take 28.2 shots per game (12th) and allow 24.5 (fifth), and they’re 5-1-1 when they outshoot the opponent. Their penalty kill sits at 82.22%, tenth in the league, against a Pittsburgh power play running at 23.33%.
The context from last season matters here too. Florida went 40-38-4 and allowed 276 goals while Barkov sat out the year and Matthew Tkachuk missed the first 47 games. Barkov is now back at the center of the top line.
Close games have gone Florida’s way. The Panthers are 3-0-2 in one-goal games, and they’ve won two of the four games in which they started as the underdog. Four of their ten games have finished with more than 6.5 total goals.
Probable lineup Pittsburgh Penguins: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Florida Panthers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Florida Panthers
Our prediction: Florida Panthers to win (1.95)
Pittsburgh Penguins has home ice and Florida played in Ottawa on Wednesday. Those are real factors, and they explain why the Penguins are a narrow favorite despite a 3-6-1 record.
We weigh the defensive gap more heavily. Florida allows 0.70 fewer goals and 3.3 fewer shots per game than Pittsburgh, and its penalty kill is better. The Penguins have lost four straight, lost both games in which they were favored, and have won only two of the five games in which they scored three or more.
Florida’s top line has Tkachuk, Barkov and Reinhart together, and Tkachuk’s seven goals are more than double Crosby’s three. At close to even money, we’re backing the Panthers.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Pittsburgh Penguins and Florida Panthers on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply