- 1 Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks: Celebrini’s Sharks visit a 7-3 Ottawa team whose games rarely open up
- 2 Ottawa Senators: two overs in ten games, and a team learning to play without Brady Tkachuk
- 3 San Jose Sharks: Celebrini has five goals in eight games, but the Sharks have allowed 34
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks: Celebrini’s Sharks visit a 7-3 Ottawa team whose games rarely open up 
Macklin Celebrini scored 115 points last season, a San Jose franchise record that beat Joe Thornton’s 114 from 2006-07. At 20 he now wears the captain’s “C”, and he has five goals in his first eight games of the new season.
He brings that form to Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday, puck drop 7pm ET, against an Ottawa team that’s 7-3. San Jose is 5-4-1 and beat Montreal 4-3 in its most recent game, scoring twice on the power play.
Ottawa is on a back-to-back. The Senators hosted Florida on Wednesday night, while the Sharks had Wednesday off after their game in Montreal on Tuesday.
The market makes Ottawa a modest home favorite, at roughly 1.78 to 1.85 on the moneyline, with San Jose between 2.06 and 2.10. The total is 6.5 goals, with the under at about 1.87 and the over at 1.95.
Our interest is in the total rather than the winner. Only two of Ottawa’s ten games have gone over 6.5 goals. The Senators have scored 22 and allowed 23 in their first nine games, exactly five goals per game combined.
San Jose games have been looser, with five going over 6.5. But across both teams the combined scoring rate is 5.3 goals per game, and the number on the board sits more than a goal above that.
Ottawa Senators: two overs in ten games, and a team learning to play without Brady Tkachuk 
Ottawa’s summer was defined by one departure. Brady Tkachuk, captain for the previous five seasons, asked to be traded so he could join his brother in Florida, and the Senators sent him there for a package built around draft picks.
Last season’s numbers give the backdrop. Ottawa went 44-27-11 for 99 points, scored 278 and allowed 246, then was swept by Carolina in the first round. Stützle led the team with 34 goals, and he’s locked in through 2030-31.
The team that remains has been hard to score against. Ottawa allowed 23 goals in its first nine games, with a .903 save percentage behind it, and it allowed 236 shots while taking only 208, 29th in the league in shots for.
The power play is the weak spot. It has converted 5 of 39 chances, 12.82%, which ranks 20th, while the penalty kill sits at 79.41%. Stützle leads the scoring with six goals in ten games, and Drake Batherson, who signed an eight-year, $86 million extension in September, has four. Dylan Cozens hasn’t scored in ten games.
The goaltending picture has options. Linus Ullmark made 20 saves in a 2-1 shootout win over the Islanders on 15 October, settled by Shane Pinto, and Samuel Ersson, who joined over the summer, is listed as the probable starter for Thursday with a career .883 save percentage across 146 games.
Ottawa has been reliable when favored, going 5-1 as a moneyline favorite and 3-1 at prices of -128 or shorter. Coach Travis Green signed an extension on Monday that keeps him behind the bench through 2030-31.
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San Jose Sharks: Celebrini has five goals in eight games, but the Sharks have allowed 34 
San Jose finished last season 39-35-8 with 86 points, its best total since 2018-19, but it allowed 292 goals, third-most in the league. That number shaped the summer: Jacob Trouba, Darnell Nurse and Michael Kesselring arrived on defense, and Mason Marchment signed a five-year, $33.75 million deal to play on Celebrini’s line.
The defensive work isn’t finished. The Sharks have scored 26 goals this season and conceded 34, with a team save percentage of .881. At even strength they’ve been outscored 27-18.
Special teams have kept them afloat. San Jose’s power play has scored 8 times on 33 chances, 24.24%, and it struck twice in the 4-3 win over Montreal. Against an Ottawa penalty kill at 79.41%, that’s the Sharks’ clearest route to goals.
Celebrini is the focal point, with Will Smith second on the team in goals with three in ten games. Yaroslav Askarov is the starter in goal, with a career .886 save percentage and 3.31 goals-against average over 69 games.
The young forward group keeps growing around the captain. Ivar Stenberg, the second overall pick in this year’s draft, joined a core that already includes Smith, and Marchment gives Celebrini a veteran winger with 45 points in 68 games last season.
As an underdog the Sharks have won 4 of 9 games this season, and they’ve played at a higher scoring rate than Ottawa: five of their ten games have gone over 6.5.
Probable lineup Ottawa Senators: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup San Jose Sharks: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks
Our prediction: Under 6.5 goals (1.87)
San Jose’s games have been open and its goaltending numbers are poor, which is the case for the over. We’d concede that the Sharks’ power play gives this game a path to seven goals.
Ottawa is the side that sets the tempo here, and its games have stayed under 6.5 in eight of ten. The Senators have been outshot 236-208 and still allowed only 23 goals in nine games, and their own power play has produced five goals in that span. The combined scoring rate of 5.3 goals per game sits well below this line.
Ottawa also played on Wednesday, and a home team on the second night of a back-to-back has less reason to trade chances. We’re taking the under.
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