- 1 Parma vs Udinese: 19th against 17th, and two attacks that have stopped working
- 2 Parma: five goals in six games and a new manager still looking for his first point
- 3 Udinese: six straight defeats and one goal in their last four
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Parma vs Udinese
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Parma vs Udinese: 19th against 17th, and two attacks that have stopped working 
Parma and Udinese have both taken four points from eight Serie A games, both have won once, and both have lost six times. Only goal difference separates them: Parma are 19th on minus ten, Udinese 17th on minus nine.
They meet at the Ennio Tardini on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 17:30 UK time, in the middle of a three-day midweek round. For two sides that have spent most of the autumn losing, it’s the first fixture in weeks where neither starts as the obvious underdog.
Udinese arrive with the longer losing run. They’ve been beaten in six consecutive league games, starting with a 2-1 home defeat to Lazio on 7 September and ending with Sunday’s 2-0 loss at home to AC Milan. Over the last four of those they’ve scored once.
Parma’s slide has come with a change of manager. Carlos Cuesta left during the international break and Alberto Gilardino took over, but the results haven’t moved yet: a 3-0 home defeat to Torino and a 2-1 loss in Rome against Lazio last weekend.
The recent meetings have been tight and rarely high-scoring. Udinese won 2-0 at the Tardini last November, Parma replied with a 1-0 win in Udine in April, and the previous game at the Friuli also finished 1-0, to Udinese.
The prices lean slightly towards the visitors: Parma 3.00, the draw 3.20, Udinese 2.40. I think the more useful question is how many goals two struggling attacks can produce, and the evidence points to not many.
Parma: five goals in six games and a new manager still looking for his first point 
Parma’s last six league results read 1-1 against Monza, 2-1 defeat at Como, 2-1 win over Genoa, then three straight losses to Inter (3-0), Torino (3-0) and Lazio (2-1). That’s five goals scored and twelve conceded.
The win over Genoa on 20 September is still their only league victory of the season. Since then they’ve scored once in three league games, in the 2-1 defeat at the Olimpico on Saturday.
Gilardino has two problems to solve at once, and the first is the shortage of goals. Nobody at the club has more than two in Serie A, with Lontani and Romero on two each, and the next on the list, Patrik Almqvist, is injured.
Almqvist isn’t the only absentee. Nicolussi Caviglia and Nadir Elphege are also out, and Valenti has been left out of the group, which takes depth from the middle of the side as well as the front.
The expected shape is a 3-5-2 with Corvi in goal, Carlos, Troilo and Drobnic at the back, and Romero alongside Toure up front. It’s a system built to stay compact first, which suits a side that has conceded three goals in two of its last three games.
At home the picture is a little less bleak. Parma beat Genoa and drew with Monza at the Tardini, and both of those games produced two or three goals rather than a rout either way.
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Udinese: six straight defeats and one goal in their last four 
Kosta Runjaic’s side have scored five and conceded fifteen across their six-game losing run. Strip out the 5-3 defeat at Inter in September and those numbers become two scored and ten conceded in five matches.
The recent games have been the worst of it. A 1-0 home defeat to Cagliari, 2-1 at Torino, 3-0 at home to Lecce and Sunday’s 2-0 against Milan have produced a single goal, and Udinese have failed to score in three of those four.
Injuries explain part of the decline. Vakoun Bayo, Idrissa Gueye, Oumar Solet, Alessandro Zanoli and David Alaba are all unavailable, which removes two centre-backs and a wing-back in one go.
There is one piece of good news for Runjaic. Nicolo Zaniolo is back, and he gives Udinese an option between the lines that they’ve lacked during the run, alongside Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, whose three league goals make him the club’s top scorer.
The scoring problem has been sharpest in Udine. In four home games during the run they’ve managed one goal, against Lazio, while the two away defeats at Inter and Torino brought four goals between them.
Ekkelenkamp and Hassane Kamara, with two, account for five of Udinese’s league goals between them. Behind them the scoring is spread thin, with Karlstrom, Abankwah, Piotrowski and Gueye on one each.
The defensive reshuffle is the bigger worry. Without Solet and Alaba, Udinese go to Parma missing two of the centre-backs who were named in their expected starting XI before the latest injuries.
Probable lineup Parma: Corvi; Carlos, Troilo, Drobnic; Del Prato, Ordonez, Sierro, Keita, Valeri; Romero, Toure
Probable lineup Udinese: Not announced at time of publication
Free Serie A Prediction: Parma vs Udinese
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67
Parma have scored five goals in six league games and Udinese one in their last four. Both are short of attacking players, with Almqvist missing for Parma and Bayo for Udinese, and Gilardino’s 3-5-2 is set up to protect a defence that has been breached too easily.
The strongest case against the pick is Udinese’s defending: fifteen conceded in six games, and a back line without Solet and Alaba. But most of that damage came against Inter, Lazio, Torino and Milan, sides with far more firepower than Parma have shown at any point this season.
Three of the last four meetings between these clubs finished with two goals or fewer, and two of them ended 1-0. I’d expect another low-scoring game between two sides more worried about losing than about winning, and I’d take Under 2.5 goals at 1.67.
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