- 1 Paris FC vs Rennes: the league’s meanest defence against a side that goes quiet on the road
- 2 Paris FC: three clean sheets in six and a home ground that’s hard to break
- 3 Rennes: two goals a game at home, nothing in their last two trips
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Paris FC vs Rennes
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Paris FC vs Rennes: the league’s meanest defence against a side that goes quiet on the road 
Lassine Sinayoko has scored four Ligue 1 goals this season, and three of those came on the same afternoon at the Velodrome, in Paris FC’s 3-2 win at Marseille. He should be leading the line again on Sunday at the Stade Jean Bouin when Rennes come to town (16:15 UK time).
There are two points between them. Rennes moved up to third on 13 after beating Auxerre 4-1 last weekend, while Paris FC dropped to fifth on 11 after their first defeat of the season, 1-0 at Lorient.
It’s a meeting of two very different teams. Paris FC have let in four league goals in six games, joint-fewest in the division, and nobody has allowed fewer expected goals. Rennes score two a game (only Brest match that rate) but have conceded ten.
The recent history belongs to the visitors. Rennes won both league games between the sides last season, 1-0 in Paris in November and 2-1 at home in May, and they’re going for a fourth straight competitive win over Paris FC, who last beat them in the Second Division back in 1980.
Rennes were also in Europa League action on Thursday, needing two late goals to see off OFI Crete 2-1, while Paris FC have had the full week off. For us, that and the venue count for more than a head-to-head built on two games.
Paris FC: three clean sheets in six and a home ground that’s hard to break 
Liam Rosenior’s team drew 0-0 at Troyes on the opening weekend, then beat Nice 3-0, won at Marseille, held Lyon to 0-0 and beat Strasbourg 2-1. Three clean sheets in six, and just the one goal conceded at home.
The Jean Bouin is where their season is built. Two wins and a draw from three league games there, four wins in their last five home league games stretching back into last season, and clean sheets in three out of every four home matches across their last ten.
Lorient wasn’t a disaster, for what it’s worth. Paris FC had 17 shots that night but only 0.97 expected goals from them, which shows how much they lean on Sinayoko for a cutting edge. Ilan Kebbal (a goal and an assist) is the one most likely to create for him.
There are a couple of fitness doubts in attack. Nhoa Sangui is likely to miss out with a hamstring strain and Samir Chergui went off with knee discomfort last week and is a doubt, though Emmanuel Mbemba Nlandu was back among the substitutes at Lorient after a leg injury.
In midfield, Maxime Lopez and Pierre Lees-Melou make this team very hard to play through. Lopez has already completed more than 500 passes, Lees-Melou has won 33 duels and made 21 tackles, and Kevin Trapp has played in every league game behind them.
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Rennes: two goals a game at home, nothing in their last two trips 
Franck Haise’s side have been excellent at Roazhon Park. Four home league games have produced three wins, a draw against Paris Saint-Germain and ten goals, four of them against Auxerre last weekend, when Boulaye Dia scored twice and Adrien Thomasson got the other.
On the road it’s a different story. They won 2-1 at Angers in September, but since then they’ve been beaten 4-0 at Lyon and drawn 0-0 with Sturm Graz in Europe, and in the league they’ve scored two and conceded five away from home (11th in the away table).
Esteban Lepaul, who finished last season as Ligue 1’s top scorer, already has four, and Thomasson has two goals and two assists, with Valentin Rongier sitting in front of the back four. The quality is clearly there; it just hasn’t travelled so far.
Thursday’s win came late. Aboubakar Nagida and Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal scored the goals that gave Rennes their first Europa League win of the league phase, in a game where Haise made three changes, and both are expected to start again here.
That’s a lot to ask of a defence playing its third game in eight days. Rennes have conceded ten league goals, more than twice as many as Paris FC, and four of those came in one bad afternoon at Lyon.
Probable lineup Paris FC: Trapp; Camara, Otavio, Coppola, Traore; Lopez, Lees-Melou; Kebbal, Pagis, Koleosho; Sinayoko
Probable lineup Rennes: Samba; Reynolds, Cresswell, Ait Boudlal, Nagida; Rongier; Camara, Thomasson; Al-Taamari, Lepaul, Soumare
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Paris FC vs Rennes
Our prediction: Paris FC draw no bet (odds 1.62)
We’re going with the home side. Paris FC have conceded once at home all season and Rennes have failed to score in their last two away games in any competition, so the visitors’ goals-per-game figure looks a lot less scary once you take it on the road.
The head-to-head is the obvious argument against us, with Rennes winning both meetings last season, including 1-0 in Paris. That was a different Paris FC defence, though, and this time Rennes arrive with three days’ rest after a European night while their hosts have had a full week.
The straight home win is around 2.25, but we’d rather take Paris FC draw no bet at 1.62, which gives the stake back if it finishes level (a real possibility when one of their three home games so far ended 0-0). We fancy 1-0.
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