- 1 Ottawa Senators vs Utah Mammoth: a 36.4% power play walks into a 74.2% penalty kill
- 2 Ottawa Senators: Amadio’s winner in Buffalo, and a power play ranked 31st
- 3 Utah Mammoth: Keller’s 21 points and a 6-4-0 road record ahead of Montreal
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs Utah Mammoth
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Ottawa Senators vs Utah Mammoth: a 36.4% power play walks into a 74.2% penalty kill 
Linus Ullmark practiced on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Saturday is his next chance to return. He’s 7-1-0 with a 1.33 goals-against average and a .945 save percentage, and the rest of Ottawa’s crease has been far less sturdy without him.
The Senators host Utah at Canadian Tire Centre on Saturday 7 November, puck drop 7:00pm ET. Ottawa is 10-6-1, third in the Atlantic with 21 points. Utah was 10-6-0 and second in the Central with 20 points before its game in Montreal on Thursday.
The special-teams gap between these two is as wide as any in the league. Utah’s power play scores at 36.4%, second in the NHL, with 20 goals from 55 chances. Ottawa’s converts at 11.9%, which ranks 31st.
The penalty kills are closer and both are poor: Ottawa is 21st at 74.2%, Utah tied for 25th at 70.0%. We’d expect that to shape the game, particularly if a goalie other than Ullmark is in the Ottawa net.
The teams split last season’s series, with Ottawa winning 4-2 at home on 9 November 2025 and Utah winning 3-1 on 7 January. This is the first of two meetings this season. Utah’s on a six-game road trip, while Ottawa opens a three-game homestand on two days’ rest. We couldn’t confirm a reliable line at the time of writing.
Ottawa Senators: Amadio’s winner in Buffalo, and a power play ranked 31st 
Ottawa won 2-1 in Buffalo on Wednesday, with Shane Pinto tying it at 11:33 of the third period and Michael Amadio winning it at 16:51. Ersson, starting in relief of Ullmark, made 24 saves.
That win followed a 6-3 loss in Anaheim, and the road trip before it swung just as hard. Ottawa beat San Jose 5-1 on 31 October, lost 6-5 in overtime in Los Angeles on 29 October and lost 4-1 in Vegas on 27 October. The Senators are 5-4-1 in their last 10.
Tim Stutzle leads the team with 22 points, 13 of them assists, and Drake Batherson has 18, including nine goals. Pinto had 11 points before Buffalo. The scoring depth drops off after that, with Jake Sanderson, Dylan Cozens and Claude Giroux all around 10, and the power play hasn’t helped at 11.9%.
Ersson had a .866 save percentage before Wednesday, and Johansson is at .848. Those numbers explain why Ottawa allows 3.06 goals a game despite Ullmark’s figures, and why his return is worth so much. He’s on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, and the team hasn’t said whether he’ll start.
The injury list is long. Eklund is out until at least January, Burakovsky through at least 27 November and Foegele through at least 25 November, while Greig missed Wednesday as day-to-day and Kleven is out through at least Saturday. Ottawa’s 5-2-0 home record is the best thing it has going, and it scores 3.06 goals a game, exactly what it allows.
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Utah Mammoth: Keller’s 21 points and a 6-4-0 road record ahead of Montreal 
Clayton Keller leads Utah with 21 points, 17 of them assists, and Mikhail Sergachev is next with 19 from the blue line. Logan Cooley and Nick Schmaltz have 17 each with eight goals apiece, and Dylan Guenther has 11.
That group is why the power play has scored 20 goals in 16 games, and the Mammoth average 3.56 goals a game. They also allow 3.38, so Utah’s games have averaged nearly seven goals in total, and the team has gone back and forth between wins and losses for nine straight.
Utah won 3-2 in Toronto on Tuesday behind Cossa’s 27 saves on 29 shots, after a 6-3 loss in Philadelphia on 1 November. Two more of its last five games went to overtime, a 4-3 win in Pittsburgh and a 5-4 win over Tampa Bay at home.
Cossa is 4-1-0 with a 2.95 goals-against average and a .875 save percentage. Karel Vejmelka is 6-5-0, 3.31 and .872. Neither number suggests a goalie who can steal a game, and Utah hasn’t named a starter. Montreal on Thursday, two nights before this, will decide who’s rested.
John Marino was on injured reserve through at least Thursday, Kailer Yamamoto is day-to-day with an upper-body injury and Lamoureux is out until at least February. Utah’s road record of 6-4-0 has held up despite a 70.0% penalty kill, because the team has outscored its own goaltending.
Probable lineup Ottawa Senators: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Utah Mammoth: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs Utah Mammoth
Our prediction: Over 5.5 goals
Utah’s games have averaged 6.94 goals and Ottawa’s 6.12, with two penalty kills that rank 21st and tied for 25th. Utah’s power play should find a goal or two on its own, and Stutzle and Batherson have 18 goals between them against goalies at .875 or lower on the other side.
Ullmark is the case against this pick. A goalie at .945 changes the calculation, and if he’s confirmed as the starter on Saturday morning, we’d want a higher price before staying with it.
He’d be coming back from injured reserve against the second-best power play in the league, though, and neither Utah goalie has shown a save percentage above .875. Three of the last five games for each team went past 5.5 goals, and last season’s 4-2 game in Ottawa would have cleared the line too.
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