- 1 Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: 22 conceded in 11 against a side with a game in hand
- 2 Osasuna: one league win in five, but only three conceded in the last five at home
- 3 Athletic Bilbao: 10 conceded in 10 and six goals in the last two at San Mames
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: 22 conceded in 11 against a side with a game in hand 
Osasuna have conceded 22 goals in 11 La Liga games, two a match, and only scored 11 at the other end. That goal difference of minus 11 is why they sit 15th on 11 points, level with Espanyol and Racing Santander and a single point above the two sides on 10.
Athletic Bilbao arrive at El Sadar on Saturday 7 November, 17:30 UK time, seventh on 15 points with a game in hand. Their record is four wins, three draws and three defeats, and they’ve let in 10 goals in 10 matches, fewer than half of Osasuna’s total.
The last two weeks have split these sides further. Athletic beat Getafe 4-0 on 25 October and Real Sociedad 2-1 on 1 November, both at San Mames. Osasuna lost 2-0 at Sevilla on 26 October and 2-1 at Deportivo La Coruna on 2 November.
Both clubs also won big in the Copa del Rey on 29 October: Osasuna 6-0 at Atletico Calatayud, Athletic 6-1 at Prat. We’ve given those scores no weight. Lower-league opposition tells us little about a league game at El Sadar, and they flatter both recent goal totals.
History leans the same way. Across 28 meetings Athletic have won 15 and Osasuna six, with seven draws. The two games last season were tight, though: 1-1 in Pamplona on 3 January and 1-0 to Athletic on 21 April.
Bookmakers make Athletic favourites at around 2.05 to 2.18, with Osasuna between 3.60 and 3.65 and the draw near 3.50. We think that’s a fair reading of the two defences, and we’d take the away side.
Osasuna: one league win in five, but only three conceded in the last five at home 
The league run is one win from five. Since a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano on 19 September, Osasuna have lost 5-2 at Real Betis, beaten Racing Santander 2-0, then lost at Sevilla and Deportivo. That’s six goals scored and 10 conceded.
Those numbers hide a sharp split. Their last five home games brought two wins, two draws and one defeat with three goals conceded, and they average 1.6 points a game at El Sadar over that stretch against 1.2 overall.
Most of the damage has come on the road. The trip to Seville for Betis produced five against, and four more arrived in the two defeats since. Saturday’s game is at home, and that’s the strongest argument against our pick.
The attack is the bigger concern. Four goals in five home games is thin, below the one a game they’ve managed across 11 league matches.
Three players were listed as out at the last team-news update: defender Herrando, midfielder Oroz and forward Del Castillo. That list dates from mid-October, so it needs checking on the day, and Herrando’s return would be welcome after five conceded at Betis.
Osasuna have taken 11 points from 33 available, and a win here would lift them to 14, one behind Athletic before the visitors’ game in hand is played.
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Athletic Bilbao: 10 conceded in 10 and six goals in the last two at San Mames 
Two league wins in a row have moved Athletic up to seventh. The 4-0 over Getafe on 25 October was followed a week later by a 2-1 Basque derby win over Real Sociedad, the side sitting fifth.
The road form is less tidy. Athletic drew 0-0 at Valencia on 17 October and lost 3-1 at Levante four days later, a game in which Aymeric Laporte was sent off. Their last five away games read two wins, one draw and two defeats, with nine goals scored and six conceded.
That’s 1.6 points a game away from home, the same figure Osasuna manage at El Sadar. We read that as evidence the home advantage here is smaller than the table gap suggests, and the price reflects it.
The squad is short in places. Gorka Guruzeta is out for the season with a knee injury, and the last available list also had Eguiluz and De Galarreta out, with Sancet doubtful. That list is dated mid-October, so Sancet’s status needs checking on the day.
Inaki and Nico Williams have both started all five of the recorded recent meetings with Osasuna. Osasuna’s Torro and Raul Garcia have done the same at the other end, so we’d expect familiar match-ups.
A win would take Athletic to 18 points with a game still in hand on the sides around them.
Probable lineup Osasuna: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Athletic Bilbao: Not announced at time of publication
Free La Liga Prediction: Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao
Our prediction: Athletic Bilbao to win (around 2.05)
We’re backing the away win. Athletic have conceded 10 in 10 against Osasuna’s 22 in 11, they’ve scored 14 from a game fewer, and they’ve won their last two league games by a combined 6-1.
Osasuna’s home record is the honest case against us: three conceded in five at El Sadar. We still hold the pick because that run hasn’t come with goals, and four scored in those five leaves little margin against a side with Athletic’s defensive numbers.
The double chance on Athletic is priced at 1.28, too short for our minimum, so we’ll take the straight win at 2.05. Athletic have won 15 of the 28 meetings between these clubs, and Osasuna didn’t win either of last season’s two.
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