- 1 Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain: three points against five, the shakiest Classique in years
- 2 Marseille are desperate to stop the rot at home
- 3 Paris arrive on the back of Ferran Torres’s form
- 4 Ligue 1 prediction Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes fast
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling comes first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain: three points against five, the shakiest Classique in years 
Marseille have three points from four Ligue 1 games. Paris Saint-Germain have five.
Those totals tell you all you need to know about the state of the 2026 Classique. This should be a heavyweight. Right now, it looks anything but. And the league is only a fifth of the way through.
Marseille started with a 4-0 win over Strasbourg, then crashed to three straight defeats: 0-2 at Monaco, 2-3 against Paris FC, 0-1 at Rennes. Bruno Genesio has not won a league game since opening day.
The reigning champions have not fared much better. Two 2-2 draws with Rennes and Lille, a 2-1 home loss to Monaco, then a first win, 1-0 at Brest through Ferran Torres.
The fixture list is working hard against Marseille. The club kicked off its Europa League league phase on Thursday 17 September in Istanbul, away to Besiktas, just three days before this derby showdown.
Paris, by contrast, have had no competitive match between the visit of Brest and this trip south. Freshness matters. In a game this hot, it matters a lot.
The last meeting still stings for Marseille: 5-0 at the Parc des Princes in February 2026, the biggest winning margin ever in the Classique. Marseille did beat PSG 1-0 at the Velodrome before that, in September 2025.
The longer history still leans heavily toward Paris. Across 112 meetings in all competitions, PSG have 53 wins to Marseille’s 35, with 24 draws.
Even so, the Velodrome is where Marseille have most recently made PSG blink. That 1-0 win in September 2025 ended a long run without defeat for Paris on this ground.
Kick-off is on Sunday 20 September at 20:45 Paris time at the Orange Velodrome. Francois Letexier is the referee.
Marseille are desperate to stop the rot at home 
Three straight league defeats. That’s Marseille’s worst run of the season so far. They have not picked up a point since matchday two.
The contrast with their opening-day blast could hardly be sharper. That 4-0 demolition of Strasbourg remains the only game this side have really put together.
The numbers tell their own story in attack: the two blank draws came away at Monaco and Rennes. At the Velodrome, Marseille still managed two goals against Paris FC, even in a 3-2 loss.
Geoffrey Kondogbia is still out, and his absence unbalances the middle of the pitch. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg will have to do more of the dirty work alongside Himad Abdelli.
Up front, Amine Gouiri remains the focal point and the designated penalty taker. Igor Paixao and Amine Harit are expected to work the flanks in Genesio’s 4-2-3-1.
Paris’ right side looks like the area to attack. If Achraf Hakimi misses out, Warren Zaire-Emery would fill in there, well away from his natural home in midfield.
Genesio has not touched the shape despite the losing streak. The 4-2-3-1 keeps Paixao and Harit wide, with Angel Gomes tasked with finding the pockets behind Gouiri.
The real issue for that midfield is coping with the press. Hojbjerg and Abdelli will need to keep the ball moving without losing it in central areas.
Any slip there would leave Nayef Aguerd and Conrad Egan-Riley exposed straight away. Against PSG’s front line, mistakes like that get punished quickly.
Tochukwu Nnadi could return as a midfield option off the bench. That would not make up for Kondogbia, but it would give the squad a bit more depth.
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Paris arrive on the back of Ferran Torres’s form 
Five points from a possible 12 is an odd start for the French champions. Paris have won only once in four league matches.
The two draws, against Rennes and Lille, both ended 2-2. The 2-1 home defeat to Monaco only underlined how shaky this start has been.
The turn has come from the attack. Ferran Torres has scored six times in five matches, with four of those coming in his last two appearances.
Ousmane Dembele has helped drive that surge, with three assists across the last two games. The pair are PSG’s main threat at the Velodrome.
The back line still has question marks. Hakimi is doubtful with a thigh issue, while Illia Zabarnyi is also a concern.
Luis Enrique’s high press remains the calling card. Vitinha and Joao Neves do the dirty work on the second balls before Paris spring forward.
The contrast with the Champions League is stark. Paris opened their European campaign with a 6-1 rout of Slovan Bratislava.
That display showed the attack clicks when space opens up. The league, though, has offered far tighter, more compact blocks.
Zaire-Emery at right-back is the tactical talking point here. A midfielder by trade, the France international is far less comfortable in defensive duels.
Bookmakers have Ferran Torres among the likeliest scorers in the Classique at 2.25. Dembele is priced at 3.45 to provide at least one assist.
Probable Olympique de Marseille line-up: De Lange ; Emerson, Aguerd, Egan-Riley, Weah ; Abdelli, Hojbjerg ; Paixao, Gomes, Harit ; Gouiri
Probable Paris Saint-Germain line-up: Safonov ; Nuno Mendes, Pacho, Marquinhos, Zaire-Emery ; Vitinha, Joao Neves, Fabian Ruiz ; Kvaratskhelia, Ferran Torres, Dembele
Ligue 1 prediction Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain
Our prediction: Both teams to score
Paris have scored in all four of their Ligue 1 games, with two against Rennes, two against Lille, one against Monaco and one at Brest. They have not drawn a blank once this season.
For Marseille, both games without a goal came away from the Velodrome. At home, OM scored twice against Paris FC and have Gouiri, Paixao and Harit in the side, a trio capable of hurting a PSG defence that may be missing its first-choice right-back.
The bet is priced at 1.57 with the main operators. We are backing both teams to score in a Classique that should open up at both ends.
The market points the same way, with over 3.5 goals at 1.90 and rated the best bet by several analysts. A tight, cagey game looks the least likely outcome of the three.
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