One point from two games, and a defence nobody trusts
Chelsea go to the Gtech Community Stadium tonight with one point from their last two Premier League matches. A 2-1 defeat to champions Arsenal, then a 2-2 home draw against newly promoted Hull City. Xabi Alonso has an attack. He does not yet have a team.
Against Hull his side led early through Morgan Rogers, signed from Aston Villa this summer, before Mohamed Belloumi scored twice against the run of play. João Pedro rescued the point after the break with an emphatic finish. Opta’s live win probability told that story better than the scoreline did: 89.1% for Chelsea when Rogers scored, 26.6% once Belloumi had finished.
The erratic pattern runs through the raw numbers. Nineteen goals have been scored in Chelsea’s league games this season, ten for and nine against, more than any other side in the division. Away from home in 2026 they have conceded 21, a figure only Crystal Palace (23) can beat, and they have won one of their last six Premier League trips.
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João Pedro is carrying the attack
The Brazilian has six goal involvements already, three goals and three assists, more than anyone else in the league. Stretch the sample back to the start of last season and he has both scored and assisted in six matches, again more than any player in the top flight. Three of those six have come in his four outings this term.
“Everyone wants to score, and Xabi tells us always, it doesn’t matter what happens, you just need to be focused and be connected to the game and you’re going to score,” he told Chelsea’s official website.
Moisés Caicedo is back from a calf problem, though whether Alonso risks him from the start is unclear. Emmanuel Emegha and Jordan Henderson are doubts.
Brentford have not lost in six
Keith Andrews has built something awkward. His side are unbeaten in six, a run they have bettered only twice in their Premier League history, seven games in September 2023 and twelve in March 2023. Only Leeds United (2.47) carry a higher set-piece expected goals total than Brentford’s 2.34.
Mamadou Sangaré, signed from Lens, has settled fast. Three players in the league have applied more high-intensity pressures in their own half than his 127. He sits joint-fourth for fouls conceded and joint-fifth for tackles made. Andrews rotated heavily for Tuesday’s 2-1 EFL Cup win at Reading, where Callum Wilson and Fábio Carvalho scored, so a familiar eleven is expected back.
History points to a share of the spoils. The last four league meetings at the Gtech finished level, including last season’s 2-2, when Carvalho equalised in stoppage time after Cole Palmer and Caicedo had turned the game around. The supercomputer splits it thinly: Chelsea 40.3%, Brentford 35.4%.
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