- 1 Oldham Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday: Challinor’s first game, and seven names on the Wednesday treatment list
- 2 Oldham Athletic: 15 goals in 14 league games, and two suspended players still missing
- 3 Sheffield Wednesday: a deeper squad with a long injury list and a new voice in the dressing room
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Oldham Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Oldham Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday: Challinor’s first game, and seven names on the Wednesday treatment list 
Dave Challinor will take charge of Sheffield Wednesday for the first time on Sunday 8 November, and his opening fixture is an FA Cup first-round tie at Boundary Park, kick-off 17:15 UK time. He watched from the stands last weekend as his new side led Blackpool through Davis Keillor-Dunn, lost Sil Swinkels to a red card and then conceded a Jerry Yates equaliser.
That draw stretched Wednesday’s winless run to four games. It was the second of two draws under interim manager Matt Hamshaw, who had stepped in after Henrik Pedersen was dismissed following a poor October, and it left the Owls ninth in League One, two points off the top six.
The context matters because of where this club was a few months ago. Wednesday finished last season with zero points after deductions and a spell in administration, went down to the third tier and started again under new ownership. They made a quick start in League One, which is why the October dip cost Pedersen his job.
Oldham come into the tie from the other end of the pyramid. They’re 18th in League Two with 15 points from 14 games, but they won 1-0 at Northampton on Tuesday night through Oliver Norburn, and this is a round they know how to get through: they’ve reached the second round in each of the last two seasons, beating Northampton in last year’s first round before losing at home to MK Dons.
History between these two clubs points one way. Wednesday have won four of the five meetings listed between them since 2010, the other finishing 0-0, and the most recent was a 4-2 win at Boundary Park in August 2012. The prices follow the same line, with Wednesday available at 2.10 and Oldham at 3.50.
Oldham Athletic: 15 goals in 14 league games, and two suspended players still missing 
Micky Mellon’s side are in their second season back in the Football League after promotion from the National League, and the second has been harder than the first. They finished 10th last time; this season they’ve won four and lost seven of their 14 league games.
The attack is the problem. Fifteen goals in 14 matches is roughly one a game, and they haven’t won two league games in a row all season. Tuesday’s win at Northampton was the fourth, and the question for Sunday is whether they can follow a win with another one for the first time.
Two players they’d normally rely on won’t be available. Kai Payne and Kane Drummond were both sent off in a defeat last weekend, the club appealed both cards and lost, so both serve their suspensions here. Ryan Delaney, Keenan Appiah-Forson and Jack Stevens are still injured.
Mellon may simply keep the side that won at Northampton. Norburn runs the midfield, and the goal threat comes from Calum Kavanagh and Mike Fondop up front, a pairing that suits a 4-4-2 against a back three.
I’d give Oldham some credit for their cup record and for home form that has been better than the table suggests. Across their last ten matches in all competitions they’ve averaged 1.40 points per game, the same rate as Wednesday, and that number is the best argument for an upset.
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Sheffield Wednesday: a deeper squad with a long injury list and a new voice in the dressing room 
Challinor inherits 20 points from 13 League One games, with five wins, five draws and three defeats. Wednesday have scored 22 and conceded 14, so the goal difference is healthy even if the recent results aren’t.
The injury list is long. Joe Lumley, Liam Cooper, Tyler Onyango, Louie Barry, Billy Mitchell, Reece James and Ali Al-Hamadi are all sidelined, and Di’Shon Bernard is unlikely to be fit enough to start. Swinkels is suspended after his red card against Blackpool.
There’s some relief in attack. Jamal Lowe is back after serving his own suspension, and he’s expected to lead the line with Harry Gray close to him.
A new manager in a cup tie also means rotation. Barry Bannan and Yan Valery could be rested, which opens the door for Kieran Morrison and Jordi Liongola, while Gabriel Otegbayo and Ricardo Santos are competing to replace Swinkels in the back three.
Even with those absences, this is still the stronger squad by some distance. Wednesday play in a division above Oldham, sit nine places higher in their own table than Oldham do in theirs, and have a new manager whose first job is to show the board that the October slide is over.
Probable lineup Oldham Athletic: Hudson; Sutton, Daniels, Monthe; Scott-Morriss, Norburn, Pett, Robson; Chilvers; Kavanagh, Fondop
Probable lineup Sheffield Wednesday: Maynard-Brewer; Palmer, Santos, Weaver; Fusire, Heskey, Slattery, Morrison; Burstow, Lowe, Gray
Free Football Prediction: Oldham Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday
Our prediction: Sheffield Wednesday to win (90 minutes) at 2.10
The gap in quality is the starting point. Oldham have scored 15 league goals in 14 games and will be without two players who were sent off last weekend, while Wednesday, for all their injuries, still field a side drawn from a League One squad sitting two points off the play-off places.
I accept that four games without a win is a real worry, and that a cup tie away from home is where a new manager’s first match can go wrong. But Wednesday have won four of the five meetings between these clubs since 2010, and Oldham haven’t won back-to-back league games at any point this season.
Challinor’s arrival should give Wednesday’s players the lift that usually follows a change in the dugout, and Lowe’s return adds a striker Oldham’s back line will have to deal with for 90 minutes. At 2.10, Wednesday to win inside 90 minutes is the bet we’d take.
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