- 1 Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Levi on injured reserve, McDavid on 31 points
- 2 Edmonton Oilers: the league’s most efficient shooters, and a penalty kill at 72.4%
- 3 Toronto Maple Leafs: a 97.4% penalty kill without Tavares or Domi
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Levi on injured reserve, McDavid on 31 points 
Edmonton placed Devon Levi on injured reserve on Friday, a day after he finished the 6-5 shootout win over Carolina. The Oilers recalled Matt Tomkins from Bakersfield under emergency conditions, and Tristan Jarry takes over the crease for Saturday’s visit from the Toronto Maple Leafs.
That change matters because of how Edmonton has been winning. The Oilers are 8-1-1 and lead the NHL with 4.6 goals per game, but they’ve also allowed 30 goals in 10 games. Levi was 6-1-0 behind that defense, and after a rough debut in which he gave up seven goals on 22 shots, he’d stopped pucks at a .913 clip over his next six games.
Jarry allowed six goals on 29 shots in the opener, then posted a .938 save percentage across his two appearances since. Edmonton needs that version of Jarry against a Toronto team that scores 3.58 goals a game.
Toronto arrives on a three-game winning streak with 14 goals scored in that run. The latest was a 5-4 win over the Rangers on Thursday, settled by Troy Stecher in the final minute, and the Leafs are 6-4-2 overall with a 2-1-1 road record.
Puck drop at Rogers Place is 7pm ET on Saturday 24 October. The last meeting went Toronto’s way, 5-2 on February 3, 2026, and the market makes Edmonton a 1.60 favorite with Toronto at 2.38.
Edmonton Oilers: the league’s most efficient shooters, and a penalty kill at 72.4% 
Connor McDavid has 8 goals and 23 assists through 10 games, 31 points in all, and he’s recorded at least one point every night. Thursday against Carolina he had two goals and three assists, and Leon Draisaitl matched him with the same line.
Draisaitl has 10 goals in 10 games, seven of them during a five-game goal streak, and two came on the power play against the Hurricanes. Edmonton’s power play converts at 35.3%, second in the league, so Toronto can’t afford a parade to the box.
The Oilers average 24.8 shots per game, 26th in the NHL, but they shoot 18.5%, the best rate in the league. That’s a team that picks its moments and finishes them, which explains how they came back from 4-2 down against the defending champions on Thursday.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins added depth to that attack in his season debut, with a goal, an assist and the only goal of the shootout. The worry sits on the back end: Mattias Ekholm left Thursday’s game after hitting his head, and his status is still being assessed.
Edmonton’s penalty kill is the weak spot, stopping only 72.4% of opposition chances, 23rd in the league. The Oilers have won four of their last five, losing only 4-2 on October 15, and they’ve allowed 3.2 goals per game over the season.
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Toronto Maple Leafs: a 97.4% penalty kill without Tavares or Domi 
Toronto’s penalty kill has stopped 97.4% of power plays this season, the best mark in the NHL. Against an Edmonton unit that scores on more than a third of its chances, that number is the Leafs’ best argument for staying in this game.
Auston Matthews leads the attack with 8 goals and 10 assists in 12 games. He was held off the scoresheet against the Rangers on Thursday, but he’d posted three points against San Jose and two against Columbus before that. Toronto scores 3.58 goals per game, eighth in the league, and its own power play runs at 28.6%.
The lineup is thinner than the results suggest. John Tavares and Max Domi have both been out for an extended spell, Chris Tanev is dealing with an upper-body injury, and Jake McCabe is listed as questionable. Losing two regular defensemen would hurt more against McDavid than against anyone else on the schedule.
Toronto also gives up a lot of shots. The Leafs allow 29.8 per game, 25th in the league, and concede 3.17 goals a night. Sergei Bobrovsky played Thursday and sits at 3-3-2 with a 3.10 goals-against average and an .895 save percentage, so Anthony Stolarz could get the start.
Toronto’s streak came with wins of 3-1, 6-2 and 5-4 in the last week. Before that the Leafs had lost 4-1 on October 17 and 5-4 on October 15.
Probable lineup Edmonton Oilers: Tristan Jarry in goal; McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins up front. Ekholm uncertain. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Toronto Maple Leafs: Anthony Stolarz or Sergei Bobrovsky in goal; Matthews leading the forwards. Tavares, Domi out; Tanev, McCabe doubtful. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NHL Prediction: Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Our prediction: Edmonton Oilers to win (1.60)
I’d take Edmonton on the moneyline. Toronto’s penalty kill can blunt the Oilers’ power play, but it has no say over even-strength play, where a team shooting 18.5% overall meets a Leafs defense conceding close to 30 shots a game. McDavid has a point in all 10 games and Draisaitl has scored in five straight.
The goaltending swap is the risk I’d concede: Jarry’s opener was bad, but his last two outings came at .938, and the Leafs’ own crease isn’t settled either, with Bobrovsky at .895 and Stolarz at .898. Toronto also has two defensemen hurt and two regular forwards missing.
The Leafs won the last meeting 5-2, and they’ve won three straight since October 19. Edmonton has still won four of five at the top of the Western Conference, and at 1.60 that’s the side I’d back.
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