- 1 New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills: five straight Buffalo wins in this series, the last one 35-8
- 2 New York Jets: no touchdowns in five quarters and Garrett Wilson in the concussion protocol
- 3 Buffalo Bills: James Cook III and a ground game that ate 42 minutes in Minnesota
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills: five straight Buffalo wins in this series, the last one 35-8 
Buffalo has beaten the Jets five straight times, and the last meeting, on January 4, finished 35-8. The four before that went 30-10, 40-14, 23-20 and 32-6.
The rematch at MetLife Stadium kicks off at 1:00pm ET on Sunday, November 15, on CBS. Buffalo is 7-1, first in the AFC East, on a four-game winning streak and 4-0 on the road. The Jets are 2-7 and have lost four in a row.
Both teams are coming off games that went the way you’d expect from those records. Buffalo held the ball for 42:32 and beat Minnesota 23-6 on Monday night. New York didn’t score a touchdown at Kansas City and lost 35-12.
The Bills get five days of rest after the Monday game, the Jets a full seven. That’s the only scheduling edge New York has. Head coach Aaron Glenn is 5-21 with the club, and his offense has gone five straight quarters without reaching the end zone.
The spread runs from Bills -7 to -8.5 depending on the book, with the total at 50.5. That total opened at 46.5 and has climbed four points since, so the market expects Buffalo to keep scoring.
Buffalo’s 7-1 start matches its best through eight games since 1993. The forecast for East Rutherford is clear and 48 degrees, with an 8 mph wind, so weather shouldn’t slow either offense.
New York Jets: no touchdowns in five quarters and Garrett Wilson in the concussion protocol 
Geno Smith went 18 of 32 for 165 yards at Arrowhead and was sacked five times. After one of those sacks he threw his helmet at the bench. All 12 Jets points came from four Jason Sanders field goals, and Sanders missed a fifth from 53.
Smith’s season numbers look better than that afternoon: 2,078 yards, 12 touchdowns, three interceptions. Drives stall close to the goal line: New York scores a touchdown on 40.7% of red-zone trips, Buffalo on 66.7%.
Garrett Wilson, with 527 yards and three scores, sat out Week 9 after a helmet-to-helmet hit against the Raiders put him in the concussion protocol. His status for Sunday isn’t known yet, and without him rookie Omar Cooper Jr. became Smith’s main short target.
Breece Hall returned from a quad injury in Kansas City, his first game in five. The Jets run for 105.2 yards a game. On defense they allow 128.0 rushing yards a game, 28th in the league against the run.
The defense has given up 127 points over the last four games. Linebacker Trevin Wallace, defensive end Joseph Ossai and cornerback Nahshon Wright all missed the Chiefs game, and defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat is on injured reserve with a knee injury.
Two of the four losses in this streak were close: 38-33 to the Raiders and 28-25 to Miami, both at home. New York is 1-3 at MetLife this season and was outscored 35-6 after the first quarter in Kansas City.
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Buffalo Bills: James Cook III and a ground game that ate 42 minutes in Minnesota 
James Cook III carried 31 times for 107 yards and a touchdown on Monday night. He has 814 rushing yards this season, and Buffalo runs for 146.6 yards a game, the kind of number that matches up badly for a Jets defense near the bottom of the league against the run.
Josh Allen was ordinary by his standards in Minneapolis: 21 of 31 for 234 yards, a 25-yard touchdown to Keleki Latu, one interception and four sacks taken. Buffalo still scored 23 and gave up six. The Bills average 32.0 points a game, with the sixth-ranked offense by one league ranking.
Allen and Cook are now the first quarterback and running back on the same team to each reach 5,000 career rushing yards. Allen has nine rushing touchdowns this season, close to the 12 he’s thrown, and his 322 regular-season touchdowns tie Peyton Manning for the most through a player’s first 10 years.
The defense forced three turnovers against Minnesota, with interceptions from linebackers Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams, and held the Vikings to 0 for 7 on third down. Greg Rousseau has eight sacks, and Buffalo allows 91.6 rushing yards a game.
On the offensive line, left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs) and left guard Alec Anderson (ankle) were inactive on Monday and are listed questionable, along with defensive tackle Greg Gaines (calf). Buffalo won by 17 without its two left-side starters.
Tyler Bass has made 24 straight field goals, a franchise record, including a 52-yarder on Monday. Buffalo’s point differential is +69, against -41 for the Jets.
Probable lineup New York Jets: Geno Smith (QB), Breece Hall (RB), Adonai Mitchell (WR), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR), Mason Taylor (TE), Kenyon Sadiq (TE), Demario Davis (LB), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S). Garrett Wilson (WR) status unknown.
Probable lineup Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (QB), James Cook III (RB), DJ Moore (WR), Keon Coleman (WR), Khalil Shakir (WR), Dawson Knox (TE), Ed Oliver (DT), Christian Benford (CB), Damar Hamlin (S). Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson questionable.
Free NFL Prediction: New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
Our prediction: Buffalo Bills -7.5 @ 1.91
Buffalo has won the last five meetings by an average of 20.4 points, and nothing in this season’s numbers suggests the gap has closed. The Bills run for 146.6 yards a game against a Jets defense that allows 128.0, and the Jets turn red-zone trips into touchdowns 40.7% of the time.
What goes against the pick is Buffalo’s offensive line and the short week. If Dawkins and Anderson sit again, Allen will take hits, as he did in Minnesota with four sacks. The Bills still won that game by 17 and controlled the clock for more than 42 minutes.
I’d lay the 7.5 at 1.91, and take -7 at a book still offering it. A Jets offense without a touchdown in five quarters, and possibly without Wilson, won’t keep pace with a team averaging 32 points.
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