- 1 New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks: four straight Atlanta wins in the series, against a defense allowing 128
- 2 New Orleans Pelicans: first in paint points, 30th in fourth-quarter defense
- 3 Atlanta Hawks: 31.5 assists a game, and 13 of 48 from three in the home opener
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks: four straight Atlanta wins in the series, against a defense allowing 128 
Atlanta has won its last four games against New Orleans, and none of them was decided by fewer than 12 points. The Hawks won 126-111 and 115-98 at the Smoothie King Center in November 2024 and November 2025, and 124-112 and 117-100 at home.
The fifth chance for the Pelicans to end that run comes on Saturday 31 October, tip-off at 7:00pm ET (6:00pm local) in New Orleans. It’s the first of two meetings this season; the second is in Atlanta on 10 February.
New Orleans hasn’t won a game yet, but it hasn’t been blown out either. The Pelicans lost 123-120 to Indiana after leading by 10 at halftime, 120-119 in Utah when Darryn Peterson made two free throws with 50.5 seconds left and Dejounte Murray missed at the buzzer, and 141-135 in overtime in Denver on the second night of a back-to-back. That’s three defeats by a combined 10 points for first-year head coach Jamahl Mosley.
Atlanta goes into Wednesday at 2-2. Quin Snyder’s team opened with road wins at Orlando (132-125) and Charlotte (128-81), then lost twice to Houston in three days, 121-114 at home and 120-110 in Houston.
Both teams have a back-to-back before Saturday. New Orleans hosts Denver on Wednesday and Sacramento on Thursday, while Atlanta hosts Miami and Cleveland on the same two nights. Both get Friday off, and the difference is travel: the Pelicans stay home, the Hawks fly in from Atlanta and head to Indiana for Monday.
Whatever happens on Wednesday and Thursday, the defensive gap between the two teams is wide. New Orleans allows 128.0 points a game, Atlanta 111.8.
New Orleans Pelicans: first in paint points, 30th in fourth-quarter defense 
The Pelicans get to the rim better than anyone. They lead the league with 60.7 points in the paint per game, shoot 48.0% from the field and 86.2% from the free-throw line, and they’re scoring 124.7 points a game.
The fourth quarter is where those leads have disappeared. New Orleans ranks 30th in fourth-quarter points allowed at 36.0, and that number lines up with the results: a 10-point halftime lead lost to Indiana, a one-point defeat in Utah, a game in Denver that needed overtime after Jamal Murray scored 42.
Zion Williamson is averaging 20.7 points and 2.67 steals, and he scored 22 and 23 in the first two games. Dejounte Murray has 20.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists after starting the season with a toe problem, and Trey Murphy III put up 26 in Denver.
The frontcourt is thinner than it should be. Yves Missi, who had 13 points and 14 rebounds on opening night, has a bone bruise in his left knee and hasn’t played since 23 October. Mosley has described the center spot as a committee of Derik Queen, DeAndre Jordan and Karlo Matkovic; Queen is averaging 13.0 points and 8.3 rebounds.
Opponents are shooting 49.8% against New Orleans, and the Pelicans are hitting only 30.9% of their own threes. The team won 26 games last season, and through three games this one has been more competitive without being any harder to score on.
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Atlanta Hawks: 31.5 assists a game, and 13 of 48 from three in the home opener 
Jalen Johnson ran the offense like a point forward in the first week. After three games he was averaging exactly 21.7 points, 10.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists, and in the home opener against Houston he had 26 points, nine rebounds and 16 assists, tying his career high. A quieter 21-point game in Houston, where he shot 5 of 14, took his averages to 21.5, 9.8 and 8.3.
Atlanta averages 31.5 assists against 13.8 turnovers, and five players are scoring in double figures: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (18.8), CJ McCollum (17.3), Aaron Wiggins (15.8), Dyson Daniels (13.3) and Johnson.
Shooting is what cost the Hawks both Houston games. They went 13 for 48 from three in the 121-114 home loss and shot about 28% from deep in the rematch, when Houston also outrebounded them 52-35. Atlanta ranks third in three-point attempts and 16th in accuracy, and it sits in the bottom 10 in defensive rebounding.
Wiggins, acquired from Oklahoma City, is making 48% of his threes on 6.3 attempts a game, but he was questionable for Wednesday with a bruised left knee. Daniels is averaging 3.5 steals, which gives Atlanta a defender who can pressure Murray at the point of attack.
Henri Veesaar is out for the season with a torn ACL and Mouhamed Gueye is recovering from foot surgery. The starting five has been McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Daniels, Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.0 rebounds.
Probable lineup New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen (Yves Missi doubtful)
Probable lineup Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu
Free NBA Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks
Our prediction: Atlanta Hawks to win
New Orleans’ paint scoring against a Hawks team that struggles on the defensive glass is the matchup that worries me. If Williamson and Queen keep getting second chances, the Pelicans can stay close, as they have in every game so far.
Atlanta is still the more balanced team. Its defense allows 16 fewer points a game than New Orleans’, it averages almost seven more assists, and it has beaten this opponent comfortably in both buildings over the last two seasons. The Pelicans’ fourth-quarter problem also suits a team with McCollum and Johnson to close games.
Odds for Saturday weren’t posted at the time of writing. The pick is Atlanta to win, with the Wiggins knee and the Missi bone bruise the two injury updates to watch on Friday.
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