- 1 NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia: two leaky defences with play-off places at stake
- 2 NEC Nijmegen: eight league games without a win, eight goals conceded in Europe
- 3 Omonia Nicosia: clean sheets against Celta and Celje, then four conceded to Benfica
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia: two leaky defences with play-off places at stake 
NEC had 62% of the ball at Heerenveen on Saturday and took 20 shots. Two of them were on target, Dylan Vente scored for the hosts on 66 minutes, and NEC lost 1-0.
The defeat left them 13th in the Eredivisie with 11 points from 11 games: two wins, five draws and four defeats. On Thursday 5 November they return to the Europa League, hosting Omonia Nicosia at the Goffertstadion with kick-off at 17:45 UK time.
Europe has gone better for them than the league. After a 5-0 defeat at Juventus on the opening night and a 1-1 home draw with Levski Sofia, they won 4-2 at Dinamo Zagreb on 22 October. Four points from three games puts them 20th, inside the play-off places.
Omonia are two points better off. Henning Berg’s side beat Celta Vigo 1-0 in Nicosia in September and won 3-0 at Celje in October, before losing 4-1 at home to Benfica, the league-phase leaders, on 22 October. They’re 11th on six points.
NEC have conceded eight European goals, the fifth-highest total of the 36 clubs, and haven’t kept a clean sheet in the competition. Omonia have let in four, three of them in the second half against Benfica.
Bookmakers make NEC favourites at 1.73, with the draw at 3.90 and Omonia at 4.00. We read the match result as close to open and look at the goals markets instead.
Those markets lean one way. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are each priced at 1.57, while under 2.5 goals is 2.38. With NEC’s defence and Omonia’s record of scoring in every league-phase game, we see little reason to argue with that.
NEC Nijmegen: eight league games without a win, eight goals conceded in Europe 
NEC’s run without a league win now stands at eight matches. Saturday followed the same pattern as several of those games: 547 passes against Heerenveen’s 344, and still only one big chance created to the home side’s three.
Two shots on target from 20 attempts is a poor return for a side that dominated the ball for long spells. With two wins from 11, it explains why NEC sit 13th despite controlling games.
The Dinamo Zagreb win showed what happens when the finishing improves. NEC scored four in Zagreb, and Tjaronn Chery and Bryan Linssen have two European goals each this season.
The defensive record hasn’t changed much between competitions. Five conceded in Turin, one against Levski and two in Zagreb make eight in three games, and NEC have conceded in every European match so far.
Their only home European game ended 1-1 with Levski on 15 October. Their one European win this season came away from Nijmegen.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Omonia Nicosia: clean sheets against Celta and Celje, then four conceded to Benfica 
Omonia have already played nine European games since July. They went out of Champions League qualifying against Kairat Almaty, then beat Lincoln Red Imps 2-1 on aggregate and Sint-Truiden 4-3 on aggregate, after losing the first leg in Belgium 1-0, to reach the league phase.
Berg’s side opened with a 1-0 win over Celta Vigo in Nicosia, then won 3-0 at Celje on 15 October. That made six points from two games without conceding a goal, after a qualifying campaign in which they’d let in five in six matches.
Benfica exposed them on 22 October. Andronikos Kakoullis equalised on 43 minutes, his first goal of the season, but Omonia conceded three times after the break and lost 4-1.
At home in Cyprus they’re fourth in the First Division with 12 points from six games, three behind leaders Apollon. Their two league games around the Celje trip ended in a 3-0 win at Karmiotissa and a 2-2 home draw with Olympiakos Nicosia.
Loïs Diony leads their scoring with four goals and came off the bench on the hour against Benfica. Omonia have scored in all three of their league-phase games.
Probable lineup NEC Nijmegen: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Omonia Nicosia: Not announced at time of publication
Free Europa League Prediction: NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia
Our prediction: Both teams to score (1.57)
NEC have conceded in every European game and scored in two of three. Omonia have scored in all three of theirs, including the 4-1 defeat to Benfica.
We accept the argument for a tighter game. NEC put two shots on target at Heerenveen, and Omonia kept clean sheets against Celta and Celje. We still expect goals at both ends, because NEC’s only home European game ended 1-1 and Omonia let in four in their last European outing.
At 1.57, both teams to score is the market we’d use rather than a match result split so evenly between three outcomes. Over 2.5 goals is available at the same 1.57 for those who prefer a goals line.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of NEC Nijmegen and Omonia Nicosia on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply