- 1 Benfica vs Lech Poznań: nine points from nine against one point from nine
- 2 Benfica: ten European goals, 26 in the league, and Alverca on Monday first
- 3 Lech Poznań: top of the Ekstraklasa, one European goal in 270 minutes
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Benfica vs Lech Poznań
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: nine points from nine against one point from nine 
Lech Poznań have conceded nine goals in three Europa League games this season and scored one. That record leaves them 32nd of 36 in the league phase, and on Thursday 5 November they visit the side at the top of it, Benfica, at the Estádio da Luz. Kick-off is 20:00 UK time.
Benfica have won all three of their European games: 2-0 at AC Milan, 4-1 at home to Celtic and 4-1 at Omonia on 22 October. That’s ten goals scored and two conceded, and no side in the 36-team table has a better goal difference.
Lech’s three results read the other way. They lost 4-0 at Crystal Palace in September, lost 4-0 at home to Bayer Leverkusen on 15 October, then drew 1-1 with Sunderland in Poznań a week later. That draw brought their first European goal of the season and their only point.
The domestic picture is very different. Lech are top of the Ekstraklasa and have lost one league game all season, 2-1 at Górnik Zabrze on 12 September. On Saturday they beat Wisła Kraków 3-1, scoring three times in ten second-half minutes.
The clubs have met twice before, both in the 2020-21 group stage, and Benfica won 4-2 in Poznań and 4-0 in Lisbon. We’d treat that as background only, since neither squad resembles the one that played six years ago.
We give more weight to what Lech have shown against stronger opposition this autumn. Palace and Leverkusen both scored four against them, and Sunderland took 25 shots at the INEA Stadion, 11 of them on target.
Benfica: ten European goals, 26 in the league, and Alverca on Monday first 
Marco Silva’s side are second in the Primeira Liga with 22 points from nine games, five behind a Porto side that has won all nine. Their 26 league goals are the most in the division, and they’ve won seven of their nine matches.
The only league defeat came at Porto, 3-1, before the international break. Since then they’ve beaten Vitória de Guimarães 2-0, won 2-1 at Santa Clara on 26 October and beaten Gil Vicente 4-1 in the Taça da Liga quarter-finals. They host Alverca on Monday night, three days before Lech arrive.
The Omonia win showed where the goals come from. An own goal on 15 minutes put Benfica ahead, Andronikos Kakoullis equalised before the break, and then Vangelis Pavlidis, Fredrik Aursnes and Gianluca Prestianni scored in the second half. Pavlidis has two Europa League goals this season and Prestianni two assists.
The treatment room is busy. Enzo Barrenechea is only gradually returning to training after knee surgery, Leandro Barreiro will take longer, and Silva said last week that Daniel Banjaqui was in the final stage of recovery but not ready to play. He also said Alexander Bah, his first-choice right-back, was tired after playing nearly every minute since the last break.
Jhon Durán was sent off after the final whistle at Santa Clara, a red card Silva called “totally unfair”. No sanction had been confirmed when Durán was named for the cup tie against Gil Vicente, and he has played since, so he should be in contention on Thursday.
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Lech Poznań: top of the Ekstraklasa, one European goal in 270 minutes 
Niels Frederiksen’s side score freely at home in Poland. Saturday’s 3-1 win over Wisła Kraków was goalless at half-time, then Antoni Kozubal, Patrik Wålemark and Yannick Agnero scored between the 54th and 64th minutes. Lech had 19 shots, eight of them on target.
They came through qualifying comfortably too. Klaksvík were beaten 6-0 on aggregate, and Thun 9-2, including a 7-0 win in Poznań on 20 August.
The step up to the league phase has gone badly. At Selhurst Park in September and at home to Leverkusen in October they lost 4-0, and only Ararat-Armenia have conceded more than their nine goals in the competition.
Individual errors have cost them as well. Mateusz Lis misplaced a clearance in the second minute against Sunderland and Timur Tutierov headed the opener. Sunderland then took 25 shots before Bengtsson, off the bench, equalised from a corner on 70 minutes.
Lech host Zagłębie Lubin on Saturday 7 November, two days after the trip to Lisbon. Going into this weekend’s round, they were three points clear of Górnik Zabrze at the top of the Ekstraklasa table.
Probable lineup Benfica: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Lech Poznań: Not announced at time of publication
Free Europa League Prediction: Benfica vs Lech Poznań
Our prediction: Benfica to win by two or more goals (Asian handicap -1.5)
Benfica are priced at around 1.04 to win outright, too short to back on its own, so we’d take the handicap. They’ve won their three European games by two, three and three goals, and Lech lost both of their first two league-phase games by four.
We accept the case against. Lech lead their league, scored three in ten minutes on Saturday, and Benfica play Alverca on Monday with Barrenechea and Barreiro still missing. That’s why we stop at -1.5 rather than a bigger line.
The European numbers carry more weight for us. Benfica have conceded two goals in 270 minutes, Lech have scored one in the same time. Palace and Leverkusen both beat them 4-0, and Sunderland, who only drew, still had 25 shots in Poznań.
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