- 1 Montenegro vs Latvia: ten points from four games, and a visitor that has never beaten them
- 2 Montenegro: three wins by a single goal, and a goal conceded in every one of them
- 3 Latvia: one point, two goals scored and a first call-up for Patrikejevs
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Montenegro vs Latvia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Montenegro vs Latvia: ten points from four games, and a visitor that has never beaten them 
Latvia have played Montenegro five times and haven’t won once. The record reads three Montenegro wins and two draws, the latest a 2-1 win for Montenegro in Riga on 2 October, when Vasilije Adzic scored after three minutes and again early in the second half.
The return game is at the Podgorica City Stadium on Thursday 12 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time, in League C Group 2 of the Nations League. Montenegro lead the group with ten points from four games. Cyprus are three behind on seven, Armenia have four and Latvia one.
The group winner goes up to League B, which makes Thursday’s game more than a formality for the hosts. Montenegro finish away to Cyprus on Sunday 15 November, and a win here would take them to 13 points before that trip, with a 2-1 head-to-head win over the Cypriots already banked.
Latvia, by contrast, are playing for pride. They lost 2-0 in Armenia on the opening night, drew 0-0 with Cyprus, lost at home to Montenegro and then went down 2-1 in Nicosia to a Marcus Edwards goal in the fourth minute of stoppage time. Going into October, they’d won two of their previous 15 internationals.
The prices reflect the gap. Montenegro are 1.32 to win, the draw is 4.70 and Latvia 8.00. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.80, which is where we see the value in this game.
Montenegro: three wins by a single goal, and a goal conceded in every one of them 
Montenegro haven’t lost in this Nations League campaign, but they haven’t been comfortable either. They came from behind to beat Cyprus 2-1 in Podgorica on 25 September, with Krstovic scoring a 66th-minute penalty and Osmajic winning it four minutes from time after Edwards had put Cyprus ahead.
Three days later they won 3-2 in Yerevan, again after trailing, with Aleksa Latkovic scoring the winner in the 89th minute. The 2-1 win in Riga followed. The only game without a goal against was the 0-0 at home to Armenia on 5 October, a night when Stefan Loncar was sent off late on.
Mirko Vucinic named 27 players on 28 October. Marusic of Lazio and Haksabanovic of Malmo return after injury, and Aleksa Maras of Kosice, described in Montenegro as the leading scorer in the Slovak league, is the only uncapped player in the squad. Loncar is in the squad, though his red card leaves his availability for Thursday unclear.
The attack has options. Krstovic, now at Atalanta, has two goals in the group, Adzic of Sassuolo has two, and Osmajic (Genoa) and Latkovic (Varazdin) have one each. Jovetic, now with AEL Limassol, and Savic of Trabzonspor are also in the squad.
Montenegro have conceded four goals in four group games, at least one in each of their three wins. Their friendlies before the campaign followed the same pattern: a 2-2 draw in Slovakia, a 1-0 win in Bulgaria and a 3-2 defeat to Slovenia. Only the Armenia game in Podgorica ended without a goal against them.
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Latvia: one point, two goals scored and a first call-up for Patrikejevs 
Latvia have scored two goals in four group games. Strods pulled one back late in the 2-1 defeat to Montenegro in Riga, and Daskevics gave them the lead in Nicosia on 5 October before Kosti and Edwards turned that game around in the last 20 minutes.
Paolo Nicolato named 25 players on 5 November. The only new face is Super Nova midfielder Ivans Patrikejevs, while forward Ikaunieks is back after injury. Up front, Nicolato can choose between Uldrikis of Heerenveen, Gutkovskis of Arka Gdynia and Aleksanjans of Norrkoping.
The defence has more top-level experience than the attack. Ciganiks plays for Luzern, Cirkins is at QPR and Melniks at Falkirk, while goalkeeper Matrevics comes from RFS, the club that supplies four of the squad.
The results before this campaign were thin. Latvia drew 1-1 in Lithuania in June and then lost 1-0 to the Faroe Islands three days later. Their spring play-out against Gibraltar was settled 2-0 on aggregate, including a 1-0 win on 31 March.
Nicolato’s side did keep a clean sheet against Cyprus, the second-best team in the group, in September. Two of their three defeats have been by a single goal, and they’ve conceded six in four games, a smaller total than their position suggests.
Probable lineup Montenegro: Not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Latvia: Not announced at time of publication.
Free Football Prediction: Montenegro vs Latvia
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals (1.80)
We aren’t interested in Montenegro at 1.32. All three of their wins have come by one goal, and they’ve conceded in each of them, which is exactly why we prefer the goals market. Three of Montenegro’s four group games have produced at least three goals.
The argument against us is Latvia’s attack, which has managed two goals all campaign. We accept that, but both of those goals came in their last two games, in Riga against Montenegro and in Nicosia, and Montenegro’s defence has given up at least one in every win so far. A 2-1 or 3-1 home win is the most likely shape of this game.
Montenegro also need the points and won’t sit on a lead with promotion to League B in reach. Their wins at home to Cyprus and away in Armenia both came late, after going behind, and we expect another open second half in Podgorica.
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