- 1 Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills: 13.3 points allowed against 33.3 scored, with Murray’s hamstring in doubt
- 2 Minnesota Vikings: first in points and pass defense, 31st in passing yards
- 3 Buffalo Bills: Allen’s nine rushing touchdowns and a defense ranked 24th
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills: 13.3 points allowed against 33.3 scored, with Murray’s hamstring in doubt 
Kyler Murray is managing hamstring tightness, and if he can’t play on Monday 9 November, Minnesota is likely to turn to Carson Wentz. Buffalo visits U.S. Bank Stadium that night at 8:15pm ET on ESPN and ABC, with both teams at 6-1.
The records hide how different these two are. Minnesota allows 13.3 points a game, first in the NFL, and 154.9 passing yards, also first. Its offense scores 20.0 points, 27th, and gains 165.6 yards through the air, 31st.
Buffalo is close to the reverse. The Bills score 33.3 points a game and rush for 148.4 yards, third in the league, while their defense gives up 25.9 points and 352.1 total yards, 24th in both.
Last weekend split them. Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10, with Josh Allen going 21-of-34 for 289 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Minnesota lost for the first time this season, 19-15 to Detroit, and allowed 230 rushing yards on 39 carries.
These teams last met in November 2022, a 33-30 Minnesota overtime win in Orchard Park. The Vikings lead the all-time series 9-6, and Allen is 1-1 against them, with his first NFL win coming against them in 2018, 27-6.
Buffalo is a 3-point road favorite, around 1.58 on the moneyline with Minnesota around 2.44. The total sits between 45.5 and 46.5 depending on the book, and the Under in that range is priced near 1.85.
Minnesota Vikings: first in points and pass defense, 31st in passing yards 
The Under has hit in six of Minnesota’s seven games. That’s the plainest summary of a team that ranks first in opponent EPA per play and 30th in its own, and it’s why a 6-1 record has come with only a 4-3 mark against the spread.
Murray went 17-of-29 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against Detroit, an 89.7 passer rating. Minnesota’s total offense of 279.4 yards a game is 29th in the league, and the running game adds 113.9 yards.
Wentz would be a step into the unknown for an offense already short of yards, and the Vikings’ 20.0 points a game gives them little margin if the passing game drops further. Offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw is also listed as questionable, which matters for whichever quarterback starts.
The Lions game is the warning sign on defense. Detroit ran 39 times for 230 yards in a four-point win. Against a Buffalo team that runs for 148.4 a game with James Cook, that’s the area the Bills will test first.
Safety Theo Jackson is questionable with a quad injury. Minnesota’s top-ranked pass defense has allowed 154.9 yards a game, and his availability affects how much help it can send toward the run.
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Buffalo Bills: Allen’s nine rushing touchdowns and a defense ranked 24th 
Josh Allen has 11 passing touchdowns and nine more on the ground, plus 270 rushing yards. Those nine rushing scores matter here, because they give Buffalo a way to finish drives that doesn’t depend on beating the league’s best pass defense.
James Cook had 21 carries for 80 yards against Baltimore, and he’s been cleared after a concussion. Buffalo leads the NFL in EPA per play and has hit the Over in five of its seven games, covering the spread in the same number.
The receiving group is less settled. DJ Moore has a leg injury, Joshua Palmer a hamstring problem and right tackle Spencer Brown a back issue, and all three are listed as questionable. Dee Alford and Greg Gaines are questionable on defense.
Buffalo’s defense sits 27th in opponent EPA per play and gives up 254.7 passing yards, 24th. Allen also came out of the Ravens game with a question over whether Roquan Smith’s grab of his helmet had left any issue, though no injury has been confirmed.
The Bills are 5-2 against the spread this season, and the 36-10 win over Baltimore extended that record. U.S. Bank Stadium on a Monday night, against the top defense by points, is a different assignment from that one.
Probable lineup Minnesota Vikings: Not announced at time of publication (Kyler Murray questionable)
Probable lineup Buffalo Bills: Not announced at time of publication
Free NFL Prediction: Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills
Our prediction: Under 46.5 total points (1.85)
We’re on the Under 46.5 at 1.85. Minnesota has gone Under in six of seven, its defense allows 13.3 points a game, and its offense scores 20.0. If Murray sits, that offense loses more of what little passing production it has.
Buffalo’s 33.3 points and the Over in five of its seven games are the case against us, and Minnesota just allowed 230 rushing yards. For this to go over, Buffalo would need well above 30 against the league’s top scoring defense or the Vikings would need to beat their 20.0 average, and they scored 15 last week.
The Vikings +3 at 1.95 is a reasonable alternative, but the quarterback uncertainty pushes us toward the total. Books differ by a full point on this number.
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